UFC Denver: Namajunas vs. Cortez Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC women’s flyweight bout headlines UFC Denver as No. 6 ranked Rose “Thug" Namajunas takes on the No. 11 Tracy Cortez.
- Date: Saturday, July 13, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Denver, Colorado, United States – Ball Arena | TV: ESPN
All Gas, No Brakes
Unranked lightweight Drew Dober and Jean “Lord" Silva kick off our card. Dober has lost two of his previous three fights but has won four of his last six. Silva is riding a ten-fight win streak, winning both of his UFC bouts.
Dober is an inch taller and has an inch reach advantage. Silva will have the power edge, knocking down opponents 1.76 times per 15 minutes. He also lands 1.37 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.12 fewer. Dober does pack power in his hands, but he might be outmatched on the feet. Silva has better wrestling statistics, landing 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and defending 72 percent of attempts. Dober will not look to wrestle and has suspect takedown defense.
This fight is listed as a pick ’em at -110 for each guy, but Silva looks to have the edge in momentum and by the numbers.
Bringing an Argentine Dagger to a King of Kung Fu fight
A pair of unranked welterweights meet when Santiago “Argentine Dagger" Ponzinibbio takes on Muslim “King of Kung Fu" Salikhov. Ponzinibbio has lost three of his last four, his only win being a knockout of Alex Morono. Salikhov is also 1-3 over his previous four, only beating Andre Fialho.
Ponzinibbio is one inch taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Ponzinibbio should have the power edge, knocking down opponents 0.38 more per 15 minutes and landing 1.54 more significant strikes per minute. Salikhov possesses lethal spinning kicks, but his chin has become suspect as he’s aged.
Neither of these fighters is a young man, Ponzinibbio at 38 and Salikhov at 40. There isn’t a massive advantage in this bout, but we can roll the dice on a big payout with a Salikhov knockout at +390.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Main Event
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
- Odds to Win: Namajunas -235 | Cortez +180
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +410 | Submission +490 | Decision -260
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -240 | No +186
Former UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion Rose Namajunas takes on late replacement Tracy Cortez. Namajunas has lost two of her last three, one of those losses being a boring title fight against Carla Esparza. Cortez has won 11 in a row, the last five being in the UFC.
Both women are five feet five inches tall and have a 65-inch reach. Namajunas is inconsistent but has knockout power for her weight and an aggressive submission game. However, there are times when she fails to pull the trigger and ends up in a frustrating fight. Cortez only has two finishes, the last being a knockout of Karen Cedillo in 2018. However, she’s only been finished once, her debut fight.
If Namajunas is on her game, she should win, but this is a huge opportunity for a hungry Cortez. I will keep it simple and take Rose to win outright.
UFC Denver: Namajunas vs. Cortez Betting Card
- Silva to win (-110)
- Salikhov by KO/TKO (+390)
- Namajunas to win (-235)
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