UFC Vegas 91: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A flyweight title bout headlines UFC Vegas 91 as No. 5 ranked Matheus Nicolau takes on No. 8 ranked Alex Perez.
- Date: Saturday, April 27, 2024 | Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Enterprise, Nevada, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN+
Killer of The Queen of Violence
A women’s flyweight bout sees No. 12 ranked Ariane “The Queen of Violence" Lipski face No. 13 ranked Karine “Killer" Silva. Lipski is riding a three-fight win streak, beating JJ Aldrich, Melissa Gatto, and Casey O’Neill. Meanwhile, Silva has rattled off eight straight wins, with three consecutive first-round submissions in the UFC.
Lipski is one inch taller, but the two have an identical reach. Silva will have the power edge, but Lipski lands 0.9 more significant strikes per minute. However, Silva has the grappling advantage, averaging 1.81 more takedowns per 15 minutes and 3.7 more submissions.
At -152, Silva is the favorite, but I’d rather get her at plus-money. Take Silva to win by KO/TKO or submission at +125.
Superman vs. Uzbekistan
No. 11 ranked light heavyweight Ryan “Superman" Spann takes on Bogdan Guskov. Spann has lost two straight but won his previous two. Guskov won his last time out and is 11- in the UFC.
Spann is two inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Superman averages 1.29 knockdowns per 15 minutes and lands 3.42 significant strikes per minute. Guskov enters with 13 of his 15 wins coming from KO/TKO. Spann should have the grappling advantage, completing 1.29 takedowns and 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes.
Spann is a sizeable favorite at -180 but is too inconsistent to roll on with that much juice. Take Spann to win in Round 1 or 2 at -115.
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Flyweight Main Event
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
- Odds to Win: Nicolau -205 | Perez +164
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +200 | Submission +200 | Decision +125
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +132 | No -168
Matheus Nicolau looks to get back in the win column against Alex Perez. Nicolau is coming off a loss to Brandon Royval in a title eliminator but had a six-fight win streak before that. Perez is on a three-fight losing skid, dropping two by submissions.
Both fighters are 5’6", but Nicolau has a 0.5-inch reach advantage. Nicolau has one one-punch power, but Perez lands 0.46 more significant strikes per minute. Perez averages more takedowns, but Nicolau has a 93 percent takedown defense rate.
Perez is taking this fight on short notice, making Nicolau a -205 favorite. I think Nicolau wins outright, but it might be worth parlaying him with another bet at that much juice.
UFC Vegas 91: Nicolau vs. Perez Betting Card
- Silva Double Chance KO/TKO or Submission (+125)
- Ryan Spann Round 1 or 2 (-115)
- Nicolau to win (-205)
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