2026 MLB Mock Draft 1.0

Is that a mockingbird? Nope. It's the tune to Mock Draft 1.0 from The Sporting Tribune.

Again, just like last year and the year prior, I waited until the five-week marker to the MLB Draft for the first mock draft here at The Sporting Tribune.

Just to explain why we wait so long, information never stops during the scouting cycle and it takes time to turn skepticism into credence. Summer, by actual solstice definition, begins in two weeks, which means spring is near its end and high schools have wrapped up playoffs and kids are donning cap and gown, while NCAA D1 Regionals are done and we are one week away from Omaha.

Bonus rumors are strictly rumors at this stage, and as you're aware, bonus demands and signability concerns can outweigh the talent assessment portion which is what causes smoke-and-mirrors mayhem in the finals weeks leading up to the draft.

Private workouts and interviews haven't taken place for the most part but are being scheduled, likely in the coming week(s) here, right before and following the MLB Draft Combine.

The MLB Draft Combine itself (to be held at Phoenix's Chase Field from June 22-27) has been a big boost for players who aren't expected to be selected in the first 75 picks or so, but can take a perceived fifth-round talent and move them into third-round territory while posting new peak data markers as kids are a little more free to let loose and not be forced to abide development restrictions from their previous amateur programs/coaches (i.e., just because you run fast doesn't mean you have to hit the ball on the ground…). It is also a place to turn in your medical information, which has the reward of a 75% guaranteed amount of the slot bonus from a players selection pick. Following that, it's a great place to let scouting directors and decision-makers sit down for personal conversations with players at the top of the draft to finalize makeup assessments and development quirks that could fit their organization.

Promptly after the Combine, teams will fill our war rooms within their home stadiums or near-by Marriott ballrooms for final draft meetings. Each team operates on this level differently, but for the most part, this is the final group assessment to finalize big boards and separate players via internal models. These are usually private meetings where non baseball-direct staff members aren't allowed to pop their heads into the room — though, medical staff is almost always included to finish medical reports which have become as important as the bonus demands, and aren't limited to just the players medicals but any family public records as well (it's heavily detailed stuff). These meetings can take place anywhere from 1-4 weeks before the draft and run for a week long, or in some cases, go until the pick is made.

When it comes to the 2026 draft class, there are a few group separators at the top that runs about six deep and then a bulk grouping that diverges into 20-30 players of different demographics with a reasonable consensus at the top of each demographic but still remains a grouping of tenners.

The top of the class is held by a trio in UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey and Dallas-metro based (Fort Worth Christian HS) prep shortstop Grady Emerson. While Cholowsky is the rare polished and tooled-up college shortstop that has been a hot commodity since his high school days and will likely run the spring as 1-1 through-and-through, Emerson may possess more upside while Lackey gives some of the rarest value/tools at position seen in over a decade.

The next trio grouping consists of the top college arm in UC-Santa Barbara Jackson Flora and prep athletes Jacob Lombard (Gulliver Prep HS, Fla.) and Eric Booth Jr. (Oak Grove HS, Miss.). Flora has a reasonable gap to the next college pitcher and may have a notable gap to the next pitcher in general. Lombard and Booth are a tier above their prep position player counterparts by a substantial margin.

The next grouping runs about 20-30 deep, and I won't hit on all of them but instead split some of the demographics.

Preps own the lefty pitching market with Gio Rojas (Stoneman Douglas HS, Fla.), Brody Bumila (Bishop Feehan HS, Mass.), Logan Schmidt (Ganesha HS, Cal.), Carson Boleman (Southside Christian HS, S.C.) and legitimate two-way Jared Grindlinger (Huntington Beach HS, Cal.) at the top of the pitching class in general behind Flora. The college southpaws will blend in with the preps, though most see the four prep arms as superior talents to the collegiates, with a group that includes Cole Carlon (Arizona State), Mason Edwards (USC) and Hunter Dietz (Arkansas).

Other arms who could see a selection between picks 7-30 would be Liam Peterson (Florida), Tegan Kuhns (Tennessee), Cade Townsend (Ole Miss) and two college righties who missed time due to injury or fatigue in Cameron Flukey (Coastal Carolina) and Logan Reddemann (UCLA).

The college hitting group who has first-round buzz runs lengthy; about 10 names or so, between infielders Chris Hacopian (Texas A&M), Justin LeBron (Alabama), Tyler Bell (Kentucky), Ace Reese (Mississippi State); outfielders Drew Burress (Georgia Tech), A.J. Gracia (Virginia), Sawyer Strosnider (TCU), Aiden Robbins (Texas), Derek Curiel (LSU); and catcher Ryder Helfrick (Arkansas).

The prep position players following Lombard and Booth (and Grindlinger to a degree) are a bit far and in-between, which may push them up boards in the likes of infielders Bo Lowrance (Christ Church Episcopal HS, S.C.), Cole Prosek (Magnolia Heights, Miss.); and outfielder Trevor Condon (Etowah HS, Ga.).

Hopefully that catches you up on the spring in a short amount of time, and we can get this mock underway.

Just as another yearly injunction, this mock is not a self-reflection of personal rankings of who I think any given team should take, but a gathering of sourced information from across the industry to report what is believed to occur on July 11.

As a personal side note that the readers should probably know, I planned a family trip to Europe during the final week of June and first week of July with a plan to fly back the day before the MLB Draft, but the lovely people at NBC and MLB decided to move the draft up a day (rounds 1-4, actually) which kind of screwed me up. So, as I attempt to move up some flights and navigate the international internet system, there is a strong likelihood I will be covering the draft while flying over the Atlantic. I will still be in contact with the industry during my nights in Scandinavia, so there will be the usual week/end before mock and mock draft the morning of. Just like giving the readers full transparency if things go dark because of internet on Finnair.

We'll run it 40 deep to give every team a pick this go round.

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• 1. Chicago White Sox – Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA

Throughout the spring, this felt like something you wrote down in pencil with a pen within arm's reach. However, as we approach the final weeks, the pen is starting to become a little more distant from the hand and the pencil may still be airborne.

While UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is still the favorite to land 1-1 with Chicago for a multitude of reasons, the perceived gap between him and others has narrowed. This isn't a gimme for the White Sox who are continuing to do their homework on what should be a franchise-altering decision, or, you know, doing their job. There are at least three options outside of Cholowsky for Chicago, not limited to Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson and Florida prep shortstop Jacob Lombard.

Lackey seems to have most traction of the back trio and some believe he may be the top choice internally, though there is much more common industry belief that Cholowsky is their man.

Two of the primary decision-makers, GM Chris Getz and scouting director Mike Shirley, were part of the same decision-making group that expressed real interest in taking Cholowsky out of high school in 2023. There is a lengthy scouting track record here and a lot of strong belief in reaching his upside within a competitive window. The pair have shown some transparency in how much they both like the player.

Others who have the ear of ownership, which can be a determining factor with this club, have expressed lesser opinions which has added a wrinkle.

Bonus demands will play a part here, but likely not enough to think there will be a significant swing in any direction. I wrote 1,100+ words about the potential finances (and perception) that can alter the choice at 1-1 which can be read here; but in short, teams picking first overall have granted an average bonus of 83.8% slot value in the bonus-pool era; which in this case would be $9.5M+ and over $1.83M in savings. This pick is going to be a record-setter north of $9.25 million with zero debate.

The dialogue about teams picking lower using newly acquired bonus pool funds to force Cholowsky and Emerson into an eight-digit bonus bracket (more on this later) haven't dissipated but have simmered. Even if the bonus is $10M, that is near 12% slot value savings, north of $1.3 million.

Or, flipping that script, a 75% slot guarantee by turning in medicals at the MLB Draft Combine would guarantee any given player $8,512,950 for this pick, which would be roughly $2.85M in savings, but would it be enough to sway them from the gap on projection of their perceived top four? The money won't be a massive factor as it has been in past years.

All-in-all, this isn't a Caleb Williams or Connor Bedard situation where Chicago is deadlocked on a player months before the draft. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye and Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson are all loudly in the mix.

Generalizing percentage chances as I usually do with the first pick: Cholowsky 44%, Lackey 32%, Emerson 20%, Lombard 3.5%, Field <1.0%.

• 2. Tampa Bay Rays – Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (Tex.)

Playing the chalk a bit here with whichever of Cholowsky or Emerson is available lands here. If both are available, Tampa has made it no secret they'd love a chance at Cholowsky, and I doubt he gets past this.

On the complete flip side of this, Tampa is known for going off script, but they've also only picked from 14-28 each of the last nine seasons. They swapped some Competitive Balance picks (traded for one, traded one away) that created a net gain of about $1.8 million in excess giving them the second largest bonus pool in the draft behind Pittsburgh, so there is plenty of wiggle room for creativity; but that could also mean they have funds for Cholowsky or Emerson and some creativity.

There are extreme under slot rumors already being mentioned, but with the second largest bonus pool, it's hard to take them seriously this far ahead. It sounds like the shortstops have the edge of Lackey here.

• 3. Minnesota Twins – Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech

Letting the cards play in a more conservative style. The Twins spent plenty of time on the top three and whichever falls is likely to be their selection, though perception is Lackey is their favorite of the trio regardless of how the chips fall.

Lackey has firmly established himself as one of the three best players in this class and has arguments as the best who will get some form of run at each pick through the top five. His skillset is hard to match as a surefire catcher who is athletic enough to kick out to shortstop while also producing at a high offensive clip, with some saying it's the closest one might get to a J.T. Realmuto outcome from the domestic amateur market.

Playing the quick scenario of Lackey going ahead of this and one of Cholowsky or Emerson being available (Emerson more likely); Minnesota would probably take either with UC-Santa Barbara pitcher Jackson Flora as an alternative choice.

• 4. San Francisco Giants – Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep School (Fla.)

Following the early-May trade that sent Patrick Bailey to Cleveland and the 29th pick and an extra $3.27 million in bonus pool fundage to San Francisco, there was immediate national attention to rumors of Buster Posey and group trying to swing Cholowsky down to the fourth pick. While most rightfully scoffed at it (and still do), there is a non-zero chance of that happening, but still quite close to zero.

For that to happen, the Giants would have to pre-draft table offer Cholowsky a substantial bonus well into the eight-digit bracket. Between their first two picks they have $12,258,600, which adding in the 5% taxed overage allowance, would be around 67% of their total bonus pool and taxed excess. They'll have to play a safety cushion of either drafting easy-to-sign players through rounds 2-10 as to not lose any bonus pool for not signing one of those picks, and also mental tab that 75% of the 29th overall pick is still $2.4525 million, while also establishing a market above what the three teams ahead of them can counter.

Just basing this on assumptions, each of the three teams ahead could bottom floor a record-setting $9.3 million bonus and go upwards of $10 million or more and not see a notable loss in their bonus pools, especially Chicago and Tampa. This means San Francisco would have to swing a profound number to Cholowsky, maybe north of $11-12 million; and holding tight to a verbal promise that his group wouldn't accept an offer short of that from the three teams ahead, with two having larger bonus pools (one by a substantial margin).

In reality, this is purely long-winded reasoning and explanation to a way San Francisco could get Cholowsky, and while they could shoot him past Chicago I don't see him getting past Tampa Bay under any measures and the Giants will have to prep for alternative scenarios while also mapping this type of scenario making for a busy month ahead.

Enroute to seeing Cholowsky in Westwood, the Giants decision-making brass were frequent along the California coast and saw plenty of Flora and preps across the state. While Flora seems like a target at this pick, most think Buster Posey is looking at bats early; and make no-mistake, it will be his decision.

The two remaining top preps of Lombard and Mississippi prep outfielder Eric Booth Jr. are the leading candidates for this pick, with Lombard having more industry consensus of being a priority at this pick.

I'd be curious to see what would happen if Lackey or Emerson were available here and how Posey would react; Lackey in particular due to how quiet his name was at this pick while crowdsourcing more due to his floor being Minnesota. I think they'd grab Emerson if he were free, with less confidence on Lackey.

• 5. Pittsburgh Pirates – Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS (Miss.)

For all the tomfoolery surrounding the Giants, it is surprising to not hear similar type rumors from Pittsburgh who have the deepest money pool. This may be due to their precarious draft room situation.

With the departure of Justin Horowitz and no replacement, Assistant GM Kevan Graves is now "running the draft" for Pittsburgh, which has led to external questions about how they will operate. Will it be purely model based? Will the entire room have a voice? Will Graves actually be pulling all the strings? There is some uncertainty about how this will go for Pittsburgh from an outside view, with those in the organization seemingly excited for the process.

I'm still going to play this conservatively and say they'll split hairs on whoever is remaining from the perceived "top six" which in this scenario leans to Flora and Booth Jr., both players who have similar traits to recent Pirates picks leading to plenty of external opinions. They've had success with more extreme demographics in the likes of Konnor Griffin and Seth Hernandez, which in turn has created a competitive window that could lean towards taking a more polished and quicker-moving player.

With that said, I don't think Pittsburgh is going to isolate a particular demographic and let the board play out naturally. Leaning Booth over Flora but not with confidence and a chance at an under slot like Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell

• 6. Kansas City Royals – Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (Fla.)

I think Kansas City would like their shot at Lombard and Booth, in that order, and may have an easier time getting Booth, but even if either were available, I'm not sure it's a closed door on the selection.

This is the high mark on the top prep southpaws. The Royals were heavy on the trail of Gio Rojas (Fla.) and Logan Schmidt (Cal.), and later on top two-way Jared Grindlinger (Cal.) who is looking more like a hitter at the next level. Rojas is the top prep arm in the class and has suitors from here to the early teens, while Schmidt has rumors floating from here to 25.

Kansas City is most likely to throw a wrinkle into the top of the draft, jumping some of the top-heavy college hitter demographic.

While there is a floor on Flora not far after this, it's hard to believe the top college arm wouldn't get a run anywhere in the top six.

• 7. Baltimore Orioles – Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech

Again, this seems like the floor for any of the position players listed above with the most realistic of that grouping to fall being Booth. I don't see those five players making it past here, and in this case, making it here.

After the prep bats, a flurry of college bats fill the board, which is more fitting to Baltimore's modus operandi. The O's model places an emphasis on power and plate discipline where the top two college bats profile between Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress and Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick. I'll lean on the model here and give Burress the nod for track record.

Externally, plenty of people think Alabama shortstop Justin LeBron could be a fit here, though that link doesn't carry much weight outside of previously linked players. Mike Elias will take power and positional value even if it comes with swing-and-miss, and LeBron fits that mold with the upside that gave him some 1-1 candidacy early in the spring but continual conference struggles dogged his stock. Baltimore was quite high on Jace LaViolette last year, who has similar variables and upside to LeBron, but was passed over by the O's and landed 27th overall to Cleveland.

One sleeper option that has picked up steam here is Grindlinger, purely as a hitter. Grindlinger is a very popular name from picks 9-12.

If it wasn't Mike Elias and Baltimore, who has an affinity for not taking pitchers early, I would say this would be a perfect scenario for them to take…

• 8. Athletics – Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Flora has suitors at every pick ahead of this excluding maybe one and seven. It's hard to project the top college arm landing at pick eight, but here we are.

This has been a long-standing link between player and club that dates back to them being frequent viewers a year prior when checking out Tyler Bremner. This may be more of an external view, but Flora fits the quick-moving mold the A's have recently established, and he would be a premier arm to add to the budding young position player core (Kurtz, Wilson, Butler, De Vries, etc.) that is creating a competitive window just prior to their move to Las Vegas (it's happening, sorry, Oakland).

While it has no dictating factor, the A's are one of the few clubs who view Jackson's little brother Hudson, a prep catcher from just outside of Oakland, as pro-ready.

If things don't fall in line like this, the net would be cast pretty wide. Most see this as a high-mark for one of the other college arms, such as Cameron Flukey (Coastal Carolina) or Logan Reddemann (UCLA), for the same competitive window reason given earlier (which could be a load of crap, but enough people say it to write it down); or an early landing spot at the front load of 8-10 college hitters who could go in the next 15 picks or so.

In that case, I'd expect them to stay aggressive on quick movers like Burress, Texas A&M infielder Chris Hacopian or Virginia outfielder A.J. Gracia; and/or the two pitchers mentioned. This has a real chance to be the high mark on Reddemann.

They were busy on the guys mentioned ahead of this and could grab a faller.

• 9. Atlanta Braves – Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M

Atlanta is linked to all the names mentioned above and could be looking for a faller, similar to the two picks in front of them. It is mostly collegiates with the common names being Burress, Hacopian and Flukey.

If one doesn't land their way, they may try to flip the board a little and take a player from a lesser-grouped demographic such as the college arms or prep hitters and swing a discount to price-bridge this pick with their next at 26. Bat-first preps like Cole Prosek (Miss.) and Bo Lowrance (S.C.); and Schmidt are rumored names under that scenario.

Ole Miss ace Cade Townsend is a very trendy name at this pick and onward, which of note, he is the only college arm with first-round chatter still competitively pitching at this point of the spring.

• 10. Colorado Rockies — Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas

There are a lot of eyes on this pick as the first under the Rockies new regime led by Paul DePodesta.

Common assumption of what demographic(s) will be targeted remains similar to the past with most seeing Colorado jumping the arms market on the amateur front knowing they can't do so on the professional open market; and targeting sluggers who can mash at elevation. While the mound mindset of power sinkers and chase breakers stuck through the end of the old regime, internal scouts have mentioned the mass sized outfields of the NL West and that speed and contact would be a better suited profile for the 81-game Coors environment.

While I'm not sure if that mentality will transfer to the war room or not, it puts a tad more intrigue to what type of hitters this group will target.

As for the pick itself, common belief is that this pick will be a high-floor collegiate, while an upside prep will be taken with one of their next two picks (they pick back-to-back at 37 and 38).

Hacopian might be the best natural fit, but that seems more speculative than informational. The other college bats that are often linked here are Helfrick and Bell who are mentioned all across the first round from picks 5-23. Helfrick's battery mate Hunter Dietz is a sneaky name that has been mentioned here.

Two prep hitters they are believed to really like that may not make it to their second and third picks are Prosek and Georgia-prep outfielder Trevor Condon.

• 11. Washington Nationals – Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (Cal.)

Similar in ways to the pick ahead, Washington has a new regime heading their decisions. However, Paul Toboni brought some of his decision-making friends from Boston, which should mean more a philosophy change in Washington that fits more of what the Red Sox have done in recent years, as opposed to a novel decision.

Washington has been linked to Grindlinger for the better part of the spring, or, ever since he reclassified in mid-February, the day after his "junior season debut". The top two-way player in the class who has grown more fans on the hitting side of things than pitching, Grindlinger has the baseline of exactly what the Red Sox had looked for in hitters and is eye-popping on models thanks to being the youngest player in the class — or any class for that matter; he'll be the youngest player ever drafted (17 years, 86 days) if my research is accurate.

Grindlinger's range starts around 6 and ends around 15, with little doubt he'll land in that range. Simply splitting the slot values of 6 and 15, it's a few hundred bucks under $6.5 million which should be his baseline of affordability and is only a slight over slot from the Nationals slot.

If Washington decides to pass, which again, I don't think they will… or if he's unavailable, the same college bats of Burress and Bell, as well as power arms like Townsend and Tennessee fireballer Tegan Kuhns.

• 12. Los Angeles Angels – Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida

Polished, quick-moving collegiates are the constant link with the Angels, as should be expected with their recent track record.

While no one truly believes there will be a philosophy shift, their sudden patience with recent draft picks and lack of competitive window has turned some external heads on what they might do with this pick, not automatically thinking they'll kick the tires on the most advanced player and do a quick place-and-plug to fill the depth chart.

I've heard mostly arms here, and ones that fit their model of elite stuff with strikes. Florida ace Liam Peterson gets the most frequent run as a potential quick mover who also fits the Angels pitch design development, and the club saw plenty of him this spring and the summer prior with Team USA's Collegiate Club. Flukey, Townsend and Reddemann also all fit the mold and range; and if Reddemann hadn't dealt with arm fatigue to end the year, he may have been the preference here.

Angels top brass spent extended time at Georgia Tech this spring, and while Lackey was the big fish they got to see plenty of Burress and his second-round-bound teammates of Alex Hernandez and Jaren Advincula, who should be tabbed for mental notes later. I imagine Burress is among their top targets, though his range starts a bit higher here with suitors all the way down to this selection.

There are divided rumors of trying a hand shake a deal in hopes of getting a player to stick around to 12, though most of the bonus dealings haven't gotten that far along (not just here, but across the whole draft) which brings some questioning to those rumors.

If they opt for hitters, Burress, Hacopian and Bell seem to be the front runners as part of their contact and plate discipline philosophy.

The club has shown a tendency to over slot prep arms with later picks, and they spent extended time on California prep righties Hirschkorn and Julian Garcia, as well as Georgia prep southpaw Carson Boleman who likely doesn't make it to their next pick.

• 13. St. Louis Cardinals – Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky

Part of the Cardinals prospect haul for Brendan Donovan was about $2.5 million in Comp B slot values. The extra funds gave them the sixth largest bonus pool, with more money to spend than four clubs picking inside the top 10 and nearly $3 million more than anyone picking outside of it.

There is a divide of opinion on how St. Louis will spend their budget, with most seeing a pretty flatline approach of filling out the farm with the best player(s) available. Others speculate that they may try to swing a big fish down to 13, but after some crowdsourcing, I'm not sure the bass are biting and no one wants to get skunked.

Playing this one straight but won't be surprised if after bonuses are more openly shared between clubs and representatives, someone (ahem, two-way preps and Big West aces) starts getting attention here.

Bell is really eye-popping on models as a sophomore who was one of the top performers in the SEC (in conference as well) and has high-end athletic markers despite some short-term flaws in the medicals. He has fans inside the top 10, upwards of the top five and may be long gone by this stage.

St. Louis rarely sways from the SEC or ACC early, with plenty of options that fit their usual mold.

• 14. Miami Marlins – Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS (Ga.)

Right around this pick is where the divide of demographics splits where you see fallers and risers converge. There are still guys on the board that probably get plucked ahead, around and behind this that probably should be mentioned more notably ahead.

Sticking with the trendy name instead of the more obvious one, Condon is flying up boards, and his range consolidates over the next two picks where both teams have expressed real interest. Maybe a month ago, he was seen as a potential over slot option for clubs with a second pick within the top 40, but I don't think he makes it out of the teens at this point.

Flukey is still on the board, as is LeBron, who feels a little too on the nose to not mention despite strong rumors a few picks away.

Names to circle for Miami on later picks are Georgia prep outfielder Martin Shelar and Las Vegas-based prep shortstop Matthew Kelley.

• 15. Arizona Diamondbacks – Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina

I have more confidence in this being the floor for names like Grindlinger and Bell, and at least a mental spot to see Arizona try to float one down. If both are available, I think Grindlinger gets the nod, but again, I don't see him getting past Washington and think Bell comes off the board at multiple spots ahead of this. Condon is also a hot name here.

Condon is a hot name here, while LSU outfielder Derek Curiel fits a similar mold to Arizona's hitter philosophy and has had his name plugged at this spot.

This is a partial mental blocking point where guys begin to leapfrog more linearly projected guys, which lands a faller deeper into the writing portion of my notebook than they should. Flukey is the top arm and arguably top man on the board, but I'm not overtly confident he would be Arizona's pick above other arms like Townsend, Kuhns or Schmidt

• 16. Texas Rangers – Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas

Texas has some of the buzziest and busiest rumors at the moment, with some of the loudest and most consistent of those rumors being them jumping the prep market and taking one of prep bats with commitment-based signability concerns between Lowrance and California prep shortstop Tyler Spangler. Spangler missed the entire spring with a back injury and some personal items but was drawing first-round grades in the fall and comparisons to Rangers superstar Corey Seager.

While the top rumor may be a holding pattern for after the Combine, there are too many names linked here to feel confidence on isolating one or two.

Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins sees his market start here, as does USC southpaw Mason Edwards; while Bell may be seeing his final floor if Arizona skips.

• 17. Houston Astros – Justin LeBron, SS, Alabama

LeBron entered the spring as a potential 1-1 candidate, but continual conference struggles and a high-variance hit tool have made him one of the more polarizing players in the class who could swing anywhere on his ceiling of an elite power-speed player who could win hardware while manning shortstop.

Houston is one of the more open proponents for LeBron reaching his upside. I think this might be his floor.

• 18. Cincinnati Reds – Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas

Most clubs think there will be an arms race for arms from before the early teens and into the early 20's, with Cincinnati being among those rumored to be jumping the market.

I won't rule out a bat but sticking with the remaining college arms. Dietz and Arizona State southpaw Cole Carlon get the most run in the teens as "college LHP1" options. Dietz gets a small step up, but ever so small.

• 19. Cleveland Guardians – Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS (Cal.)

Cleveland fluxed from their model last year in a sense, creating some confusion about if they'll stick to what they've done for the better part of two decades.

They continue to dominate Southern California, and while that isn't a massive dictator, the three names that come up most often with Cleveland are Southern California based. Schmidt has rumors all over the first-round and won't make it beyond the early-to-mid 20's, while Edwards also gets some run here. Both fit the mold of the Cleveland model as young-for-class arms with plus breakers and projectable fastballs.

Another Southern California name that has jumped boards to close out the spring is Trey Ebel, whose brother was a Brewers comp pick last year and whose father is third base coach for the Dodgers. Ebel has a remarkably similar skillset to Tyler Freeman who almost a decade ago got plucked by Cleveland above his projected range. Ebel is also a model-fit for Cleveland, who also has his name frequently mentioned by a club picking in the mid 20's.

• 20. Boston Red Sox – Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee

There are prep bat rumors floating around but everyone thinks Craig Breslow and Jake Bruml are going to target arms with a particular archetype.

• 21. San Diego Padres – Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS (Mass.)

Left-handed throwers. Left-handed hitters. Preps. There isn't much creativity in what people think the Padres will do.

Rojas doesn't have a ton of suitors beyond the back half of the top 10, and this could represent his floor. It could also be the landing spot for Schmidt if he makes it out of the teens.

Bumila is a LeBron James sized southpaw who throws triple digits with extreme ease and exemplary athleticism. He is quite similar to Padres 2025 first-rounder, Kruz Schoolcraft. His profile scares some teams, but his upside fits near the top of the class.

While the prep southpaws will get most of the run here, some of the previously mentioned left-handed hitting preps with strong commitments like Lowrance, Prosek and Spangler also get some frequent mention.

• 22. Detroit Tigers – Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS (Cal.)

The common names linked here are as to be expected: left-handed hitting preps who play up-the-middle.

The demographic takes a bit of a jump after Condon — who is perceived to have his floor here — with most of the left-handed hitting preps either having health concerns or not being from a premium position, at least in this range.

I do think they like Spangler and would explore options lower down the board like New York prep shortstop Aiden Ruiz, California prep shortstop James Clark and Illinois prep shortstop Landon Thome, though I'm not as confident they wouldn't just swing one of the top college arms or a non-up-the-middle lefty swinging prep.

One name that got mentioned here that raised my eyebrow was Advincula, and while it was worth writing, I'm not buying.

• 23. Chicago Cubs – Cade Townsend, RHP, Ole Miss

There are a lot of talented college bats and arms that should be off the board by now. My notebooks have them on the back end of the college pitching market that is supposed to run through the teen picks but it's hard to pass them up on a few of the remaining bats.

Chicago has done well targeting late-rising arms like Townsend before. Dietz, Kuhns, Edwards, Carlon all make sense here, and all could be off the board by here as well.

• 24. Seattle Mariners – Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA

Quite similar to above, plenty of college arms linked here. Physical rep bats also get some mention, which with the rumors that floated around them last year make plenty of sense.

Reddemann had a substantial run towards the top half of the first-round with some suitors inside the top 10, but arm fatigue dogged his stock, and he didn't get to answer any health questions after UCLA was eliminated in the regionals without him throwing a pitch. There are questions, but if he proves some health in private sessions and/or the Combine, he won't make it to the comp round.

Just an afterthought, the Mariners took Nick Becker in the second-round last season and could swing his brother Eric, the shortstop for Virginia, here at a discount; but that's just me thinking out loud as opposed to anything with credence.

• 25. Milwaukee Brewers – A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia

Milwaukee is unafraid to swing away from the industry standard with a tendency to pre-map the draft and let the model do its thing. Though they are linked to mostly preps and their perceived model, the value of one of the top college bats landing in their lap could be too alluring to ignore.

That said, they were all over Southern California this spring and may have enough interest in Clark or Ebel to pull them this early.

If the floor has already passed, this is the basement for Schmidt.

PPI PICKS:

• 26. Atlanta Braves – Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal (S.C.)

Go back and read the ending of the writeup for pick 9. If Lowrance doesn't go here or quickly above this, I think he heads off to Virginia. Prosek seems like an option at this pick as well.

• 27. New York Mets – Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California

Edwards has suitors in the teens and is believed to not get out of the top 30, with this being a perceived floor.

• 28. Houston Astros – Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian

Strosnider gets some run with the Astros with their teen pick. This is purely coincidence, but it looks like some of the premier college bats will fall to the back of the first round and in this scenario, it's one of my personal favorites.

COMP BALANCE ROUND A

• 29. San Francisco Giants – Carson Boleman, LHP, Southside Christian HS (S.C.)

Big money. Big money. No whammy. No whammy. Stop!

I may have lied and been wrong. This could be the stopping point financially for Lowrance to avoid school.

The big lefties are the perceived needle movers for the Giants to try and push to 29.

• 30. Kansas City Royals – Cole Prosek, 3B, Magnolia Heights HS (Miss.)

Being bluntly honest, I think Prosek goes here or 33-35, with little doubt about it. Some clubs argue him as the second-best pure hitter in the prep ranks behind Emerson.

If San Francisco swings one of the lefties down (Rojas or Schmidt in particular) and then decide to pass, I think the Royals would be doing backflips.

• 31. Arizona Diamondbacks – Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State

• 32. St. Louis Cardinals – Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State

Back-to-back player who shouldn't be anywhere near this spot in the draft. I'm leery on giving Arizona two college arms and not swinging a big-name prep to St. Louis with their large bonus pool, but here we are.

• 33. Tampa Bay Rays – Taj Marchand, SS, James Island HS (S.C.)

• 34. Pittsburgh Pirates – Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS (Fla.)

Marchand's market is similar to Prosek's market. I don't have much doubt he goes outside of picks 31-34. Borthwick is the top right-handed prep arm with a reasonable gap between him and the third best (California prep righty Jensen Hirschkorn is near this range), and Pittsburgh has not shied away from the risky demographic in recent past. Market inefficiency via efficiency.

• 35. New York Yankees – Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook HS (N.Y.)

The Yankees do have interest in local product Ruiz and some think there could be a hometown discount to be had, but that happens every time there's a hot topic New York prep, so decide for yourself whether or not you buy the smoke. I think I do.

UCLA outfielder Will Gasparino is a target for their second pick, though with how polarizing his profile is, they may have to swing him here if they really do like him as much as most perceive. Some clubs say Gasparino will be paid in the second round, while others say they wouldn't take him until rounds 6-8. It's an odd guess, but worth monitoring.

• 36. Philadelphia Phillies – Archer Horn, SS/RHP, St. Ignatius HS (Cal.)

Don't call it a hunch. Not as a two-way either. Pure hitting shortstop.

• 37. Colorado Rockies – Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State

• 38 (Round 2). Colorado Rockies – James Clark, SS, St. John Bosco HS (Cal.)

Let's not pretend I just had Ace Reese sitting here strictly because I had no home for him ahead of this. Reese should be long gone by now, but one of the falling college bats could split the picks here with an upside prep. Clark is one of the better bat-to-ball artists in the class with speed and positional value; Colorado saw quite a bit of him this spring.

39. Toronto Blue Jays – Blake Bowen, OF, JSerra Catholic HS (Cal.)

No team did their homework on Bowen quite like Toronto. They also like some mid-major arms in the likes of Jack Radel (Notre Dame) and Ben Blair (Liberty).

40. Los Angeles Dodgers – Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, Kingsburg HS (Cal.)

The Dodgers are on every demographic and are believed to be one of the first to pop the extreme-risk demographics in prep righties and catchers.

Los Angeles spent plenty of time on the college lefties this spring which makes Florida State southpaw Wes Mendes an interesting name to circle with all the others taken ahead of this.

Simplistically, the Dodgers will take whoever is standing at the top of their board as they usually do.

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Alright kids, that's it. Thanks for reading. See you for Mock 2.0 around the final week of June.