American League Championship Series Game 1 Prediction | ALCS Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The Cleveland Guardians must be at their best if they hope to represent the American League in the 2024 World Series. The AL Central Champs are at a significant disadvantage at the outset of the American League Championship Series, with the betting odds stacked against them. Nevertheless, the series opener against the New York Yankees represents one of the Guardians’ best chances of stealing a win. We like their chances to stun the home faithful and start the ALCS with a monumental victory.
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Where to Watch Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 1
- Location: Yankee Stadium
- Time: 7:38 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: TBS, truTV, Max, Sportsnet
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 | Moneyline: Yankees -162 | Total: 7.5
Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 1 Best Bet ATS: Guardians +136
Cleveland’s bats came alive when they needed to in the ALDS, but we expect a more consistent effort from top to bottom in Game 1. The Yankees trot Carlos Rodon out to the mound for the series opener following his disastrous showing in the Divisional Round. The southpaw was tagged for four earned runs across 3.2 innings pitched, giving up one home run and a ton of hard contact in defeat. That’s been a common occurrence for Rodon, who ranks in the 11th percentile among all MLB pitchers in average exit velocity. Worse, he gave up 31 home runs across 174.1 innings pitched in the regular season, underscoring his penchant for getting knocked around.
Further, Cleveland was one of the best teams in the bigs at getting to southpaws. The Guardians put up a .751 OPS against lefties throughout the regular season, the seventh-best mark in the majors. Even if Rodon is better than we saw last time, it won’t be good enough to keep the Guardians at bay.
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Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 1 Best Bet Total: Over 7.5
Cleveland doesn’t want to get into a pissing match with the Yankees throughout the series, but it seems inevitable on Monday night. Alex Cobb takes the ball for the Guardians, trying to improve off his lackluster showing against the Detroit Tigers last round. Unfortunately, Cobb’s metrics point toward another sub-optimal showing. In limited action this year, the journeyman right-hander is giving up a 44.1% hard-hit rate and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. Both would rank among the worst in the bigs had Cobb accumulated enough innings to qualify in the rankings. Moreover, those characteristics don’t play well at Yankee Stadium. Combined with the Guardians’ anticipated success at the plate, there should be ample scoring to send Game 1 over the total.
Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 1 Best Player Props
Steven Kwan to Record Two of More Hits +240
Go ahead and look past Steven Kwan. Everyone else did. But the former highly-touted prospect has finally lived up to his billing in 2024, and that’s even more true in the playoffs. Kwan led the Guardians in OPS against the Tigers, recording 11 hits across the five games for a standout .524 batting average and 1.136 OPS. At first glance, bettors may dismiss Kwan’s ability to knock around Rodon, he is a left-handed batter after all. However, the Guardians’ leadoff man has better splits off southpaws than he does versus conventional arms. Kwan has a .839 OPS off lefties, nearly 70 points ahead of his .774 mark versus right-handers. His advantage is reflected in his on-base and slugging percentages, with both marks moving up at least 30 points. Kwan sets the table for the rest of the Guardians’ lineup, and he should deliver a game-changing performance at Yankee Stadium.
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