MLB · 1 year ago

MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions Ryan Feltner Player Prop

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions Ryan Feltner Player Prop

Colorado Rockies: Player Prop

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

Ryan Feltner Over 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110) Risk 0.5 Units

Is anyone interested in sweating out a Rockies pitcher prop on Monday evening? Good, me too.

Simply put, this should not be a plus number. It is because Ryan Feltner got destroyed by the Reds the last time he faced them, going 4.1 innings and allowing eight earned runs. That was at Coors Field, where he’s struggled mightily, putting up a 6.75 ERA. That ERA drops to 4.65 on the road, and he can find success today.

This season, he has started 17 games and been over this number in nine of those starts. So, just off the jump, he’s 53% to the over.

As you can see from the chart above, he’s consistently over this number in road starts. He’s over 15.5 outs in six of his last seven road starts (17.3 outs per game). He’s facing a Reds offense in the bottom five of every metric over the past 30 days. Cincinnati ranks 29th in average, OBP, and wRC+. Over the last two weeks, the Reds have had an 81 wRC+, which is good for 27th in the league.

I will not accept that a pitcher should be plus money with this matchup and his prior success on the road. The guy allowed eight earned runs and pitched into the fifth inning against this team at Coors Field.

The Rockies bullpen is relatively fresh, but they shouldn’t be eager to rush into the bullpen if Feltner is pitching well. For example, Feltner allowed four runs in his past two road starts and still went over this number both times. We don’t need him to pitch that well, and he should still pitch into the sixth inning.