MLB Player Props (July 1): Hammer These Plus-Money Wagers
Grant White
Host · Writer
There’s nothing like a fresh slate of MLB games to kick off the week, even if it is just a modest three-game slate. We’re running through the SportsGrid MLB Player Props, identifying the pre-eminent plus-money wagers that yield a long-term advantage for bettors.
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Isiah Kiner-Falefa – To Record an RBI +220
Don’t look now, but the Toronto Blue Jays offense is finally starting to live up to expectations. Armed with a week of solid results, Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the Blue Jays into their Canada Day showdown versus the Houston Astros.
Since the start of last week, the Jays have excelled in every facet of offense. Cumulatively, they have the fourth-best OPS, third-most runs per game, and are tied for ninth with eight long bombs. IKF has been a resounding part of that success and is poised to continue his elite trajectory versus Hunter Brown on Monday.
Kiner-Falefa has been sensational over his recent sample. Recording hits in 13 of his past 14, IKF has elevated his season-long slugging percentage from .380 to .420. Moreover, his month-long benchmarks put him in All-Star territory, with Kiner-Falefa bumping his OPS up to .823 in June. Naturally, that correlates with solid run production, with IKF driving in 16 and coming around to score 15 more.
Brown has been superb over his recent stretch, but he’s a prime regression candidate in the short term. The hard-throwing righty has given up a lone earned run across his previous 25.0 innings pitched for a mind-numbing 0.36 ERA. Predictably, that’s a few standard deviations away from his expected value of 3.33, implying regression may be imminent.
Waves collide as the hard-hitting Kiner-Falefa takes on regression candidate Brown. As per our algorithm, we give the Jays infielder the edge as he looks to continue his string of elite play. His RBI potential is loosely tied to the team’s success, and thankfully, the Jays have been delivering. Back Kiner-Falefa to record an RBI at +200 or better. As it stands, FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging an even more tempting +220.
More MLB: Can Betting Over $2 on the Chicago White Sox Be Justified?
CJ Abrams – To Record an RBI (+185)
Low-key, CJ Abrams is quietly asserting himself as the standout performer the San Diego Padres expected him to be when they drafted him sixth overall back in 2019. In his third season with the Washington Nationals, we’re getting a pristine view of how Abrams could be.
Abrams has devoured pitching lately. Over the past 30 days, the Nats shortstop has an MVP-worthy 1.127 OPS, totaling 15 extra-base hits, 18 runs scored, and 16 RBI. Moreover, his analytics profile implies that Abrams is operating sustainably.
Heading into Monday’s intra-divisional tilt with the New York Mets, Abrams is occupying the upper echelon of his profile. The Nats’ slugger ranks in the 88th percentile in sweet-spot rating, 83rd percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 95th percentile in expected batting average. Despite his recent surge, Abrams’s season-long batting average is still below expected, implying additional growth is anticipated.
Along with that, we’re betting that Abrams maintains his top-end run production. With Mets’ probable starter David Peterson rated as one of the worst analytics arms in the majors, that trajectory should continue in the series opener versus New York. Peterson ranks in the third percentile in expected ERA, improving mildly to the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the sixth percentile in average exit velocity.
Nothing can slow down Abrams right now, and Peterson will be little more than a blip on the radar. At the current offering, there’s a substantive advantage in backing Abrams to record an RBI on Monday night.
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