Pirates’ Ke’Bryan Hayes Comes With Complicated Trade Value

This year’s MLB trade deadline is shaping up to be one of the strongest seller’s markets in recent memory—and the Pittsburgh Pirates are positioned to be right in the thick of it.

With a 38-56 record and a roster full of movable contracts, the Pirates could be among the most active sellers as the deadline approaches.

If they choose to sell, Pittsburgh will likely focus on dealing from its pitching depth. However, the team has also signaled a desire to shed payroll, a familiar strategy during Bob Nutting’s tenure as owner.

One of the more intriguing names potentially on the move? Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. While Hayes has shown flashes of promise, his inconsistent play, injury history, and long-term contract create a complex trade profile. Yet, for the right team, he could offer serious upside.

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Offensive Struggles Dimming the Hype

When Hayes broke into the majors in 2020, he looked like a future star. In a brief 24-game debut, he hit .376/.442/.682 with five home runs and a 194 wRC+, posting nearly 2.0 fWAR. Since then, though, his offensive production has sharply regressed.

In 2025, the slide has continued. Over his first 85 games, Hayes has just two home runs and a .240/.288/.298 slash line, good for a 64 wRC+. His strikeout rate has increased from 18.9% to 21%, while his walk rate has declined.

Outside of a solid second half in 2023—when he finally posted a 100 wRC+ and reached double-digit homers for the first time—Hayes has failed to provide consistent offensive value.

While 2025 has brought marginal improvements in some areas, his underlying metrics remain worrisome. His barrel rate ranks in the 25th percentile, with exit velocity and hard-hit rate just above league average. His max exit velocity has declined from 113 mph in 2023 to just 109.7 mph this season.

Even worse, he’s making more weak contact. His topped percentage is up, his ground ball rate is pushing 50%, and his line-drive rate is at a four-year low.

Perhaps most troubling is his regression against fastballs. In 2023, he hit .302 with a .466 slugging percentage and 95 mph average exit velocity on heaters. In 2025, he’s batting just .213 with a .258 SLG and 92.9 mph exit velo. Unsurprisingly, pitchers have adjusted—he now sees fastballs over 60% of the time.

Bottom line: Hayes’ offensive decline has significantly hurt his trade value, and teams will be cautious.

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Injury History Raises More Flags

Adding to the concern is Hayes’ history of injuries, especially his chronic back issues.

Since 2020, he’s played over 100 games in only two seasons (2022 and 2023), with a career-high of 136 games. In two other years, he appeared in just 96 contests. While he has stayed healthy so far in 2025, his track record offers little assurance of durability.

Hayes has acknowledged that he’s often played while not fully healthy, especially in 2024—his worst full offensive season. He spent this past offseason focusing on back management, but even he admitted that his back may never be “100%.”

Playing third base only adds strain, as constant bending and sudden movements could aggravate lingering issues. Even if he avoids the IL this year, teams will factor his health into any trade evaluation.

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Contract Complications

In 2022, Hayes signed an eight-year, $70 million extension that, at the time, looked like a smart bet on potential. Today, that deal looks more like a liability.

He’ll make $7 million annually through 2027, before his salary increases to $8 million through 2029, with a $12 million team option (or $6 million buyout) in 2030.

While $30 million over four years after 2025 isn’t a back-breaking amount for a starting third baseman, it becomes less appealing if Hayes continues to struggle at the plate or misses time due to injury.

Still, there’s upside. A team could acquire Hayes at a low cost in terms of prospects and potentially benefit from a high-end rebound. If he returns to even league-average production at the plate, the value of his defense alone could make the contract worthwhile.

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So, Is Hayes Worth the Gamble?

That’s the million-dollar question.

Despite an anemic .585 OPS over 86 games this season, Hayes has still accumulated 1.1 fWAR—a testament to his elite glove. He leads all MLB players, regardless of position, in both Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) since his 2020 debut, with 71 OAA and 87 DRS. His 11.2 fWAR over that span ranks 11th among third basemen.

Even with his offensive issues, Hayes remains an elite defender and a potential 3-win player if his bat can bounce back to even average levels.

In 2023’s second half, he posted a 128 wRC+—a glimpse of what could be. If a team believes it can unlock that version of Hayes, he could become a long-term asset and a bargain.

But the risks are real. Continued offensive regression or recurring back issues could make his contract a burden and the trade a misfire.

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Final Verdict

Trading for Ke’Bryan Hayes is a gamble. But it’s a gamble with a potentially huge payoff.

For teams willing to bet on his health and upside, Hayes could become a cornerstone third baseman again—offering elite defense and just enough offense to make a major impact. But if his offensive and injury trends continue, that bet could turn into a costly mistake.

With the deadline approaching, Hayes might just be one of the most fascinating—and divisive—names on the market.

The post Ke’Bryan Hayes Comes With Complicated Trade Value appeared first on Just Baseball.