MLB · 3 months ago

Making the Case for 3 AL MVPs Not Named Yankees’ Aaron Judge

SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball

Host · Writer

A Trophy for the Rest?
Make no mistake: This is Aaron Judge’s award to lose. But that doesn’t mean the race lacks intrigue. Raleigh’s historic power, Witt’s electric all-around game, and Skubal’s utter dominance on the mound deserve attention—and admiration.

Even if Judge runs away with the trophy, these three are making their own kind of history.

The post Is There a Case for an AL MVP Not Named Aaron Judge? appeared first on Just Baseball.
Aaron Judge Is Playing on a Different Planet
Through 93 games, Aaron Judge is not just having his best season—he’s flirting with one of the best seasons of the century. His 6.7 bWAR puts him on pace to surpass the 10.8 bWAR marks he reached in 2022 and 2024. At this rate, he could become the first player since Barry Bonds in 2002 to top 11 bWAR in a single season.

Here’s what that looks like:
- MLB-best .356 batting average
- 34 home runs (2nd in MLB)
- 78 RBI (1st in MLB)
- 1.192 OPS (1st in MLB)
Per Baseball Savant, Judge is in the 90th percentile or better in nearly every major offensive category—xwOBA, xSLG, barrel%, bat speed, hard-hit rate, you name it. The strikeouts are still there, but his walk rate and elite contact quality make it a non-issue.

And defensively? He’s still among the elite right fielders:
- 88th percentile in fielding run value
- 85th in Outs Above Average
- 97th in arm value
- 86th in arm strength
A 33-year-old, 6'7" slugger playing Gold Glove-caliber defense while carrying the league’s best offense? It's almost unfair.

But… what if he cools off?
Cal Raleigh: Big Dumper, Big Numbers
Yes, Cal Raleigh has had a cold start to July (.107 AVG), but every one of his three hits this month has been a home run. The power-hitting catcher leads all of MLB with 36 home runs and is second in RBI (76), just behind Judge.

More impressive? He’s doing all this while anchoring a Mariners pitching staff that ranks among the league’s best. Offensively, he’s practically propping up a middling Seattle lineup (13th in both runs and OPS) on his own.

While his average sits around .260, the advanced metrics tell a dominant story:
- 99th percentile in batting run value
- 90th in xwOBA
- 95th in xSLG
- 98th in barrel rate
- 90th in bat speed
- 96th in walk rate
Behind the plate:
- 81st percentile in fielding run value
- 88th in pitch framing
- 76th in caught stealing above average
Raleigh is just the fifth player ever to reach 36 homers before the All-Star break. Two more this weekend in Detroit and he’ll hold sole possession of second all-time. Barry Bonds’ pre-break record (39) is probably safe—but not by much.

If Raleigh breaks Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs, and the Mariners clinch a playoff spot? He could force a real conversation.
Bobby Witt Jr.: The Summer Scorcher
Bobby Witt Jr. has a reputation for catching fire after the All-Star break, and he’s heating up again—14 hits in his first nine games of July.

Last season, Witt posted a 9.4 bWAR, narrowly finishing behind Judge. This year, he’s at 4.4 bWAR, even with slightly reduced power. He’s slashing .295/.348/.500 with 13 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and an .848 OPS for a Royals team that lacks much offensive firepower.

But Statcast loves him:
- 100th percentile in sprint speed and defensive range
- 99th in baserunning value
- 97th in expected batting average
- 95th in average exit velocity
- 92nd in batting run value
- 98th in fielding run value
Witt’s second-half splits are scary good:
- 1.300 OPS in July 2024
- 1.050 OPS in August 2024
- .979 July OPS, 1.010 August OPS in 2023
If Judge stumbles and Witt goes on another summer tear like he did last year, he might sneak into the MVP debate again.
Tarik Skubal: The Ace With a Real Case
No pitcher in the AL has been better than Tarik Skubal. And frankly, no one is even close.

Check the numbers:
- 2.02 ERA
- 0.81 WHIP
- 148 strikeouts, just 14 walks in 116 innings
The last non-Ohtani pitcher to win MVP was Clayton Kershaw in 2014. That year, Kershaw had a 7.7 bWAR—and Skubal is on a pace to match or exceed that.

And the advanced data? Off the charts:
- 100th percentile in pitching run value
- 98th in fastball run value
- 100th in offspeed run value
- 97th in expected ERA
- 95th in strikeout rate
- 99th in walk rate
- 98th in limiting exit velocity
Skubal leads the rotation for the first-place Tigers. If he posts a sub-2.00 ERA, racks up 250+ Ks and tops 8 WAR, while Detroit claims the AL’s No. 1 seed, he could legitimately enter the MVP chat—even in a Judge-dominated year.
A Trophy for the Rest?
Make no mistake: This is Aaron Judge’s award to lose. But that doesn’t mean the race lacks intrigue. Raleigh’s historic power, Witt’s electric all-around game, and Skubal’s utter dominance on the mound deserve attention—and admiration.

Even if Judge runs away with the trophy, these three are making their own kind of history.

The post Is There a Case for an AL MVP Not Named Aaron Judge? appeared first on Just Baseball.
Aaron Judge Is Playing on a Different Planet
Through 93 games, Aaron Judge is not just having his best season—he’s flirting with one of the best seasons of the century. His 6.7 bWAR puts him on pace to surpass the 10.8 bWAR marks he reached in 2022 and 2024. At this rate, he could become the first player since Barry Bonds in 2002 to top 11 bWAR in a single season.

Here’s what that looks like:
- MLB-best .356 batting average
- 34 home runs (2nd in MLB)
- 78 RBI (1st in MLB)
- 1.192 OPS (1st in MLB)
Per Baseball Savant, Judge is in the 90th percentile or better in nearly every major offensive category—xwOBA, xSLG, barrel%, bat speed, hard-hit rate, you name it. The strikeouts are still there, but his walk rate and elite contact quality make it a non-issue.

And defensively? He’s still among the elite right fielders:
- 88th percentile in fielding run value
- 85th in Outs Above Average
- 97th in arm value
- 86th in arm strength
A 33-year-old, 6'7" slugger playing Gold Glove-caliber defense while carrying the league’s best offense? It's almost unfair.

But… what if he cools off?

Making the Case for 3 AL MVPs Not Named Yankees’ Aaron Judge

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