MLB · 2 hours ago

MLB ALCS Game 3 Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top Betting Picks (Oct. 15)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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The Toronto Blue Jays enter Game 3 of the ALCS with their backs against the wall, but everything about this matchup screams bounce-back spot against the Seattle Mariners. Toronto’s underlying metrics still grade among the elite — built on contact quality, patience, and sustainable offensive production. Despite falling behind 0-2, the Blue Jays’ offense continues to generate the right kinds of swings, and their ability to control at-bats against a taxed Seattle bullpen gives them real value tonight at +110. This is a veteran lineup with postseason pedigree and power that doesn’t stay quiet for long. Expect a full-throttle response from Toronto’s bats.

On the other side of the field, Shane Bieber is expected to bring his A-game and get Toronto back in the series by stymying Seattle’s offense.

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Where to Watch Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3

Ballpark: T-Mobile Park
Location: Seattle, Washington
Where to Watch: FS1
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Spread: SEA -1.5 (+164) | Total: 7
Moneyline: TOR +110 | SEA -130

All Odds Subject to Change. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Bet 1: Blue Jays Moneyline +110

The Blue Jays are built to bounce back, and Game 3 feels like the perfect spot for that regression to hit. Despite trailing 0-2 in the series, the underlying data still favors Toronto’s lineup finding its rhythm. This is a team that ranked top-five across nearly every major offensive metric during the regular season — and elite contact profiles like that rarely stay quiet for long.

Toronto’s approach doesn’t rely on luck or streakiness; it’s driven by quality contact. Their league-best .269 expected batting average and .339 xwOBA show a repeatable process that plays in any park, against any pitcher. Even through two low-output games, Toronto’s hard-hit rate and chase discipline have remained steady — they’re simply not cashing in those chances yet.

Facing a Seattle staff that leaned heavily on its bullpen through the first two games, fatigue becomes a real factor here. The Mariners’ relievers have thrown nine innings already in this series, and Toronto’s balanced lineup can exploit that late. Expect the Jays’ core — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Daulton Varsho — to capitalize on fastballs in the zone and finally translate that hard contact into runs.

Why Toronto? Because elite offenses with proven plate discipline don’t stay dormant forever — especially when they’ve already proven capable of posting a .974 OPS in the ALDS just a week ago. Tonight feels like the reset at a great price.

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Bet 2: Mariners Under 3.5 Runs -113

While the M’s have scored 13 runs through the first two games of the ALCS, their offense is not sustainable and should see some correction in Game 3. Seattle ranked 17th in expected batting average in the regular season (.249) and has really relied on the home run this series. The Mariners have hit four round trippers, accounting for nearly 70% of their runs in this championship series.

On the mound for Toronto, Shane Bieber will be the man looking to get the Blue Jays back into this series and hold the M’s bats at bay. He allowed more than three runs in just one of his seven regular-season starts, pitching to an ERA of 3.57 to go along with a 1.02 WHIP and a .225 opponents’ batting average. He last pitched just over a week ago, when he went 2.2 innings, allowing two runs while striking out a pair in the ALDS against the New York Yankees. While Bieber is expected to go deeper tonight, he’s in good hands when giving the ball up.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen had a very good 2025. Toronto’s relievers held opponents to a .227 batting average this season, the third-best in baseball. Their 644 strikeouts as a unit ranked fifth, while a .398 ERA and 1.28 WHIP ranked closer to the middle of the pack.

I expect Bieber to bring his top stuff to Seattle tonight and slow the M’s bats to allow Toronto to get back into this series.