MLB World Series Best Bets: Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 3 Picks

The Toronto Blue Jays decimated the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the World Series, only for LA to return the favor in Game 2. With the series shifting back to Chavez Ravine for the next three contests, the Dodgers can potentially close out the series at home. That starts with tonight’s pivotal Game 3 showdown at Dodger Stadium.

The Blue Jays are hefty underdogs on Monday night, but can they pull off a magical upset in LA?

Where to Watch Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: FOX, SNET
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: LAD -1.5 (-102) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: LAD -205 | TOR +172

Tyler Glasnow was tabbed as the Game 3 starter, and he could single-handedly shift the betting odds further in LA’s favor. But with the return of “Mad" Max Scherzer in his last start, the future Hall of Famer will do what needs to be done to keep this one closer than expected.

Glasnow has been punching above his weight class for a few starts now. Dating back to the start of September, the lanky right-hander has been throwing smoke off the bump. He’s held six of the last seven opponents to one run or fewer, including just a single tally across 13.1 innings pitched. More impressively, he’s allowed just seven hits across that postseason sample while striking out 18 for a 12.4 K/9 rate.

While Scherzer struggled at times throughout the regular season, he showed his postseason acumen in his ALCS start versus the Mariners. The future Hall of Famer held the M’s to three hits and two earned runs across 5.2 innings pitched, adding five strikeouts in the outing. That measures up against his playoff reputation, in which he’s tossed a 3.43 ERA over nine postseason appearances. Moreover, we’ve seen Scherzer thrive at Chavez Ravine, earning a 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across three postseason appearances.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen has been in fine form recently, allowing a 2.81 ERA over their last four games. Whenever Scherzer is begrudgingly taken out, they can be counted on to keep Toronto within striking distance. It may not be enough to pull off the upset, but it does warrant a play on the run line.

Best Bet: Blue Jays +1.5 -118

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gotten the lion’s share of the credit for Toronto’s postseason run. However, the Blue Jays wouldn’t be in this position without the contributions from their underappreciated supporting cast. Addison Barger made headlines with his Game 1 grand slam, and he won’t be contained in Game 3, either.

Before going 0-for-3 in Game 2, Barger had been on an incredible run. The utility man had recorded hits in six straight playoff games and got on base in nine of the Jays’ 11 contests. Over that stretch, Barger had accumulated eight RBI, three home runs, and five runs scored.

More importantly, Barger’s metrics and profile point toward renewed success versus Glasnow. The left-handed batter slugs .480 off righties, yielding 66 of his 74 RBI throughout the regular season. Further, he has a .460 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, accounting for 56.0% of Glanow’s offerings.

As it stands, Barger’s .438 slugging percentage off fastballs is slightly below expected. Naturally, that implies that ongoing production growth is expected in the playoffs. With Glasnow leaning into his four-seamer and throwing a sinker over 20.0% of the time, Barger is set up for immediate success on Monday night. We’re backing the Blue Jays’ young slugger to continue his onslaught and drive in a run in Game 3.

Best Bet: Addison Barger to Record an RBI +260

Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks.