MLB · 6 hours ago

MLB Divisional Series Best Bets Today: Thursday’s Top Betting Picks (Oct. 8)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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The MLB Divisional round continues on Wednesday with two pivotal matchups that could swing the October landscape. In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays hold a 2-1 edge over the New York Yankees and now have a chance to close things out in the Bronx behind one of baseball’s hottest lineups.

Out west, the Philadelphia Phillies are trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers 0-2 in their NLDS, desperate to spark a rally behind longtime ace Aaron Nola.

With elimination and momentum both on the line, tonight’s slate delivers value, intensity, and opportunity for sharp bettors eyeing key moneyline spots.

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Where to Watch Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: The Bronx, New York
Where to Watch: FS1
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+120) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: TOR +142 | NYY -168

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Bet 1: Blue Jays Moneyline +142

The Blue Jays continue to showcase why they’re among the most complete offensive teams in baseball — and the numbers back it up. They led MLB with a .265 batting average and were also atop the league in on-base percentage (.333), providing a steady foundation for a lineup that also ranked third in OPS (.760) and fourth in runs per game (4.9).

What separates this team is how sustainable their production truly is. The Jays posted the league’s best expected batting average (.269) during the regular season while ranking fifth in both xwOBA (.339) and sixth in expected slugging (.441). That level of consistent contact and power has carried seamlessly into October. Through the first three games of the ALDS, Toronto’s bats have erupted — leading all postseason teams with a .345 batting average, .664 slugging percentage, and a blistering 1.047 OPS. Despite playing fewer total games than teams that advanced from the Wild Card round, they’ve already piled up an MLB-best 29 runs and nine home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the centerpiece of it all, going 8-for-13 with three homers, eight RBI, and a 1.908 OPS — tied for the postseason lead in homers and pacing the American League in RBI.

The Yankees turn to right-hander Cam Schlittler to slow the Jays’ freight train offense, but he’s struggled mightily against this lineup. Toronto tagged him for five hits, two walks, and four earned runs in just 1.2 innings during his last start against them a little over a month ago in the Bronx. Earlier in the year, he allowed seven hits and three walks across five innings in Toronto. The rookie’s 3.99 expected ERA looms well above his 2.96 regular-season mark, suggesting regression, and his 1.22 WHIP underscores command issues. His 40.2% hard-hit rate, 8.2% barrel rate, and 89 mph average exit velocity all point to trouble against elite bats. And in case you’re wondering, Vladdy has personally gone 4-for-5 off him in their two meetings.

While it’ll be a bullpen game for Toronto, that’s no giant concern. Their relief corps ranked third in opponents’ batting average (.227) during the regular season, with a middle-of-the-pack ERA that plays up given their offensive support.

With the Jays’ lineup scorching and their track record against Schlittler well-established, the value clearly sits on the moneyline with a juicy plus-money tag. Toronto has all the momentum to finish the job in the Bronx tonight.

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Where to Watch Phillies vs Dodgers Game 3

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Location: Los Angeles, California
Where to Watch: truTV, TBS, HBO Max
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 9:08 p.m. ET
Spread: LAD -1.5 (+118) | Total: 8
Moneyline: PHI +152 | LAD -180

Bet 2: Phillies Moneyline +152

It’s been a quiet start for the Phillies’ offense, hitting just .203 through the first two games of this series — a surprising dip for a lineup built on both balance and firepower. Philadelphia’s attack typically blends top-end athleticism from Trea Turner with the elite power of the NL’s home run king, Kyle Schwarber (56 HRs in 2025), and Bryce Harper. Over the whole season, this group ranked second in MLB with a .258 batting average, while also placing eighth in runs scored (4.8 per game) and fourth in OPS (.759). The advanced metrics tell an even more optimistic story: the Phillies posted a .262 expected batting average (fifth), .444 expected slugging percentage (fifth), and a .336 expected wOBA (sixth), all indicators that their true offensive ceiling sits well above what we’ve seen early in this series.

Turning to the mound, the Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola — their longest-tenured player and a franchise cornerstone since being drafted in 2014. Nola’s season numbers don’t jump off the page at first glance (5-10, 6.01 ERA, .267 opponent batting average), but the deeper analytics point toward a more stable profile. His 4.24 expected ERA and .258 expected batting average indicate that he has pitched better than the raw results suggest. The right-hander held his own in his lone outing against Los Angeles this year, working six innings with three earned runs and a pair of strikeouts. Historically, Nola’s been comfortable under the lights at Dodger Stadium, carrying a 3.76 ERA, .219 opponent batting average, and 0.91 WHIP over four career starts there.

This sets up perfectly for a potential rebound game. Nola’s veteran poise and history in LA combine with a Phillies lineup overdue for positive regression — a dangerous combination for a Dodgers team that’s thrived early but could be facing a letdown spot here.

With Philadelphia priced north of +150, this is exactly the kind of underdog spot worth firing on. I’ll take the Phillies to extend the series and avoid the sweep tonight.

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