NBA SGP: +900 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers

The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers will play in the first of two Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament games tonight. The winner will face the New York Knicks in the first round, so we created an ultimate same-game parlay.

Valued at +900, let’s ride!

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Legs 1: 76ers ML

The Sixers are winning this game. I can’t see a way that they don’t. Yes, Erik Spoelstra could work up some magic, but it doesn’t matter when the Heat don’t have the horses this time. Jimmy Butler is finally showing signs of his age, and even though he might flip a switch in the playoffs, I’m not going to sit here and assume it will happen. For the Sixers, this is a different team. They’ve won eight straight, have a 31-8 record with Joel Embiid on the floor, and have a trustworthy playoff coach in Nick Nurse, something they haven’t been able to say in recent years. Things are finally breaking the Sixers’ way, so I don’t expect them to choke away this opportunity.

Leg 2: Joel Embiid 25+ Points

Let’s be frank: Joel Embiid can drop 25 points literally whenever he feels like it. He’s averaged 30.4 points since returning from injury, so I trust that the best player on the floor will assert himself from start to finish, as he indeed wants to avoid the Boston Celtics in the first round.

Leg 3: Tyrese Maxey 20+ Points

Tyrese Maxey has dropped at least 20 points in eight of his last ten games and has had three straight games against the Heat of at least 30. That’s good enough for me!

Legs 4 & 5: Kelly Oubre Jr. 10+ Points, 4+ Rebounds

Across the Sixers’ eight-game win streak, Kelly Oubre Jr. has averaged 20.5 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. He’s definitively been the Sixers’ third-best player, as expressed by Embiid directed right at Tobias Harris, so I don’t see a scenario where he doesn’t show up tonight.

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Legs 6 & 7: Jimmy Butler 4+ Assists, 4+ Rebounds

While I’m skeptical that Jimmy Butler can turn on his “Playoff Jimmy" completely, especially as a scorer, I’m confident we will see him give everything he has. It will just have to be on the glass and as a passer. Butler won’t be afraid to let his teammates carry the offensive load, so knowing his ability to give an all-around effort, expecting four assists and four rebounds, is the minimum.

Leg 8: Bam Adebayo 10+ Rebounds

Bam Adebayo has averaged 13 rebounds per game across four games against the 76ers this season, beating the ten-rebound mark each time. We’ll trust him to do more of the same tonight, as he will be camped out in the paint with Embiid all night.