NCAAB · 1 year ago

Bubble Watch on 2/24: Analysis of 16 Teams Around the Bubble

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Next Four Out: Oregon
Oregon may have the best chance to get into the field among our four teams in the "Next Four Out" grouping. While they've only got one Quad 1 opportunity remaining on their schedule, it's a mammoth one on the road at Arizona next Saturday. Add in two high-end Quad 2 home games against Colorado and Utah and there are plenty of chances for the Ducks to boost their metrics ahead of Selection Sunday. There are a lot of teams with better overall bodies of work than Oregon, but they could find their way into the First Four by winning out and showing up strong at the Pac-12 Tournament.
Last Four Byes: Seton Hall
What the Hall lacks in important metrics compared to a lot of the bubble, they more than make up for with five incredible Quad 1 wins to buoy their resumé and at-large hopes. Home wins over both UConn and Marquette along with road victories over St. John's, Providence, and Butler are as good of a grouping of big-time wins you will find out of a bubble team this season. Their metrics along with a pair of Quad 3 losses don't give them a ton of wiggle room, but they're on the right side of the bubble for now.
Last Four Byes: Providence
The most debate among the bubble teams has come from the Friars, mainly due to how many believe the committee will handle the Bryce Hopkins injury. It's clear Providence has looked worse since Hopkins went down for the season on January 3rd, but they still have a strong enough resumé to qualify for the field with top 50 metrics and five Quad 1 wins. The selection committee in the past has admitted that injuries impact seeding, but won't impact who is included in the field. We'll put the Friars in and keep them around the 11-seed line due to Hopkins's absence.
Last Four Byes: Nebraska
Nebraska's got a few great wins, top-40 metrics, and zero bad losses. Sounds like a surefire lock for the NCAA Tournament? Their Achilles heel has been winning away from home, something the selection committee has put plenty of emphasis on in recent years. Their best road win is over Kansas State and they just picked up their second true road win of the season over Indiana this past week. They don't have any other opportunities to get a statement road win on the schedule, so this is something that will follow their resumé all the way to Selection Sunday. They're in for now, but four remaining regular-season games against non-NCAA Tournament teams mean this slope could get slippery quickly.
Last Four Byes: Texas A&M
This is the most polarizing resumé in college basketball. The Aggies have some monstrous performances with three Quad 1A wins over Tennessee, Iowa State, and SMU. Their six wins in Quad 1 are tied for the sixth-most in the country alongside Iowa State, Marquette, Baylor, Creighton, North Carolina, Kansas, and Duke. All seven of those schools are in line for a protected seed. Texas A&M's resumé hits a serious roadblock with four Quad 3 losses, all of which nearly offset their hard work in the top quadrant. The committee seems to favor those who have proven capable of beating high-end competition, but they are skating on thin ice with their constant no-shows.
Last Four In: Gonzaga
There may not have been a more important bubble win this season than Gonzaga's triumph over Kentucky at Rupp Arena two weeks ago. The Gaels were desperate for a win over the field and a tally in the first quadrant, which has helped propel them to the right side of the bubble just three weeks away from Selection Sunday. The predictive metrics love the Bulldogs with both KenPom and BPI having them at 19th in the country. They've still got a pair of Quad 1 opportunities on the schedule with road trips to both Saint Mary's and San Francisco and could get two more in the WCC Tournament against both squads. If the Bulldogs can get to Selection Sunday with potentially three or even four Quad 1 victories, their seeding could climb awfully quickly.
Last Four In: Ole Miss
We get one or two teams like the Rebels every year. They have dreadful predictive metrics, a team that clearly looks like they don't belong in the field, yet they have the results and results-based metrics that force you to put them in the bracket. While Ole Miss sits 68th in the NET, 70th in KenPom, and 79th in BPI, their results-based metrics are both within the top 40 with three Quad 1 wins to their name. There isn't really justification for leaving Ole Miss out of the field, but they are in by the skin of their teeth as things stand.
Last Four In: Indiana State
After back-to-back losses last week in the Missouri Valley - including an ugly Quad 4 defeat to Illinois State - it felt like Indiana State's at-large hopes were all but over. After further evaluation of their resumé, there still seems to be a path to selection for the Sycamores. While their only Quad 1 win on the season over Bradley is hanging on by a thread due to the Braves checking in at 60th in the NET, they still sit around the 40s in both results-based and predictive metrics with three Quad 2 victories and just one defeat in the bottom two quadrants, the loss to the Redbirds. They now have zero margin for error after last week's antics, but a loss to Drake in the MVC Championship game may not spell the end of their season.
Last Four In: Villanova
Villanova's got a polarizing resumé similar to Texas A&M's. The Wildcats have a trio of incredible wins away from home over North Carolina and Texas Tech on a neutral as well as a road win over Creighton. They are drug down to the bubble with ugly early-season losses to Saint Joseph's, Drexel, and Penn, all registering as Quad 3 results. Add in a 3-6 road record and results-based metrics in the 50s and you get a resumé that belongs squarely on the bubble. There are plenty of opportunities to get safely into the field for the Wildcats including trips to UConn, Providence, and Seton Hall, a home game against Creighton to close out the regular season, and then whatever matchups they face in Madison Square Garden at the Big East Tournament.
First Four Out: Utah
It wasn't too long ago when Utah was a part of the 8/9-seed grouping with the potential to get even higher on our seed list. The Utes have struggled to capitalize on any of their meaningful opportunities over the past month, dropping five of their last seven including a golden opportunity at home to take down Arizona where they ultimately fell in triple overtime. The world is still at Utah's feet, but they need to start racking up some wins to get back on the right side of the bubble. A win in Boulder over Colorado on Saturday night would be a great start.
First Four Out: Wake Forest
Wake Forest's predictive metrics are getting so good that it's almost requiring them to be in the field. The glaring omission from their resumé comes in the first quadrant, where they just picked up their first win. Despite losing to Virginia in a Quad 1 opportunity last weekend, they still were able to get a tally in that column after Florida moved into the NET's top 30, elevating the Demon Deacons' earlier win over the Gators into the top quadrant. Saturday's home game over Duke is one of the biggest opportunities for any team in the sport this weekend, and they can really solidify a spot for themselves in the field with a statement win over the Blue Devils.
First Four Out: Cincinnati
Consistency has been Cincinnati's biggest challenge this season. The Bearcats have shown flashes of brilliance throughout Big 12 play with wins over BYU, TCU, and Texas Tech. Their incredibly weak non-conference strength of schedule ranking of 315th has done them zero favors, but the Big 12 has helped them build the resumé as college basketball's land of opportunity. The Bearcats will get a few more bites at the apple against TCU on Saturday and Houston on Tuesday where they could really start to challenge for an at-large spot with a statement victory.
First Four Out: Butler
Butler played themselves into the NCAA Tournament towards the end of January, snatching four straight wins including an impressive road win over Creighton to kick off this month. After proceeding to fumble away opportunities to further bolster their sheet metrics with losses to UConn, Marquette, Creighton, and Villanova, the Bulldogs are really starting to fall behind in the metrics in order to have a respectable at-large resumé. They've now got ten Quad 1 losses and at some point, that many can become a hindrance to your overall body of work. To complicate things further, their last Quad 1 opportunity comes on Saturday against Seton Hall, leaving them little opportunity to further build their resumé up outside of the Big East Tournament.
Next Four Out: Iowa
Iowa's resumé is mostly blemish-free outside of a home loss to Michigan, but they had very little proof of being able to hang with the big boys before last weekend. They were barely on our radar until they ripped off wins over both Wisconsin in Ames and Michigan State in East Lansing, giving them their second and third Quad 1 wins of the year. It's brought them into the at-large conversation, with comparable resumés to their bubble colleagues. A pair of matchups with Illinois as well as a road trip to Northwestern to close out the regular season give them three Quad 1 opportunities where they could really shoot up this list and play their way into the field.
Next Four Out: Drake
Drake was largely left for dead after their third Quad 3 loss to Missouri State a month ago, a defeat that felt like the nail in the coffin for their at-large hopes. They lack the upside required to climb the bubble with zero Quad 1 opportunities remaining on their regular-season schedule, but they will at least be part of the conversation in the end if they can find a way to win out.
Next Four Out: Colorado
The Buffs have had some real chances to get themselves on the right side of the bubble in the past month with Quad 1 matchups against Utah, Washington State, and Arizona. They fumbled all three of them away and now have just one Quad 1 opportunity remaining in a road matchup against Oregon. There's still work to do for Colorado but if they can capitalize on that matchup against the Ducks, they could have a chance at an at-large bid with some work to do in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Next Four Out: Oregon
Oregon may have the best chance to get into the field among our four teams in the "Next Four Out" grouping. While they've only got one Quad 1 opportunity remaining on their schedule, it's a mammoth one on the road at Arizona next Saturday. Add in two high-end Quad 2 home games against Colorado and Utah and there are plenty of chances for the Ducks to boost their metrics ahead of Selection Sunday. There are a lot of teams with better overall bodies of work than Oregon, but they could find their way into the First Four by winning out and showing up strong at the Pac-12 Tournament.
Last Four Byes: Seton Hall
What the Hall lacks in important metrics compared to a lot of the bubble, they more than make up for with five incredible Quad 1 wins to buoy their resumé and at-large hopes. Home wins over both UConn and Marquette along with road victories over St. John's, Providence, and Butler are as good of a grouping of big-time wins you will find out of a bubble team this season. Their metrics along with a pair of Quad 3 losses don't give them a ton of wiggle room, but they're on the right side of the bubble for now.

Bubble Watch on 2/24: Analysis of 16 Teams Around the Bubble

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