March Madness: College Basketball National Championship Betting Trends into Sweet Sixteen

The 2025 NCAA Tournament has already delivered its annual share of upsets, blowouts, and bracket-busting thrillers. As the field narrows to the Sweet 16, the betting markets have responded dramatically. Futures odds have shifted significantly at BetMGM, with three teams — Duke, Florida, and Houston — emerging as the biggest movers, most-backed squads, and top liabilities for sportsbooks.

Let’s dive into the latest trends shaping the road to the national championship.

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Duke: From Contender to Favorite

Opening at +1100, Duke has seen the most aggressive line movement in the field, now priced at just +225 to win it all. That shift comes on the heels of dominant wins — a 93–49 blowout over Mount St. Mary’s in the first round and an 89–66 rout of Baylor in the Round of 32.

Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg (22 points, five rebounds vs. Baylor) and guard Tyrese Proctor (23 points on 7-of-10 shooting), the Blue Devils are clicking at the right time. Their efficient offense and suffocating defense have made them the most bet-on team in the tournament.

• Ticket %: 13.2% (highest at BetMGM)

• Handle %: 38.3% (by far the largest)

• Biggest Liability: Duke leads all teams

With Duke set to face Arizona in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, public and sharp bettors alike are confident the Blue Devils are title-bound.

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Florida: The Gators Are Gaining Steam

Florida began the tournament with modest expectations. At +4000 to win the championship, they weren’t on many bettors’ radars. But dominant showings in the first weekend — a 95–69 win over Norfolk State and a gritty 77–75 victory over UConn — have changed everything.

Behind big performances from Walter Clayton Jr. (23 points vs. UConn) and Will Richard (15 points), the Gators have looked every bit like a contender. Oddsmakers have slashed their title price to just +350, reflecting both improved probability and sharp action.

• Ticket %: 9.1% (2nd highest)

• Handle %: 12.7% (also 2nd)

• Line Movement: +4000 ➝ +350

The Gators will face Maryland in the Sweet 16, and a win there could drive their odds even lower.

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Houston: Quiet Confidence Behind the Cougars

Houston entered March Madness as a team built for tournament play: elite defense, veteran leadership, and a top seed. The Cougars have validated their backers after cruising past SIU Edwardsville (78–40) and outlasting Gonzaga (81–76).

BetMGM opened Houston at +1400, but their odds now sit at +500, thanks to solid play and significant market support. Guard L.J. Cryer (15 points vs. Gonzaga) and Emanuel Sharp (12 points) have been key in Houston’s efficient half-court attack.

• Ticket %: Just outside the top 3

• Handle %: 8.2% (3rd overall)

• Line Movement: +1400 ➝ +500

With a Sweet 16 clash against Purdue up next, the Cougars are one win away from yet another Elite Eight appearance.

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Public Loves Michigan State

While Duke, Florida, and Houston have dominated the handle, Michigan State has quietly emerged as a top liability as well. The Spartans (+2000) hold 7.7% of all tickets, the third-highest figure, and have advanced with wins over Bryant and New Mexico. Veteran leadership and tournament pedigree make them a fan favorite once again.

On the flip side, despite entering as a No. 2 seed, St. John’s was bounced in the second round by Arkansas (75–66), making them one of the tournament’s most disappointing teams relative to betting exposure. Their early exit removes one major liability for sportsbooks.

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NCAAM Championship Picture: Where We Stand

As of March 24, here’s a snapshot of key market movers:

• Duke: +1100 ➝ +225 | Highest ticket %, handle %, and biggest liability

• Florida: +4000 ➝ +350 | 2nd in ticket %, handle %, rising threat

• Houston: +1400 ➝ +500 | 3rd in handle %, flying slightly under the radar

• Michigan State: 3rd in tickets, 2nd weekend survivor

• St. John’s: Out early, once a liability, now off the board

With the Sweet 16 set and new matchups ready to shake the board again, keep an eye on further shifts in futures pricing — especially if any of these top teams continue their runs.

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