Ranking the 40 Most Likely Final Four Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) New Mexico Lobos

Record: 22-5

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.5%

2) Duke Blue Devils

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Record: 23-3

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 45.8%

3) Auburn Tigers

Record: 23-2

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 40.9%

4) Tennessee Volunteers

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Record: 21-5

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 22.0%

5) Florida Gators

Record: 23-3

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 20.6%

6) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 18.3%

7) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 21-5

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 18.0%

8) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 21-5

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 17.5%

9) Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Record: 20-6

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 13.3%

10) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 21-7

Conference: West Coast

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 10.6%

11) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 19-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 9.7%

12) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 21-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 9.4%

13) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 18-8

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 9.4%

14) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 17-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 9.4%

15) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 21-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.9%

16) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 20-6

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.8%

17) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 20-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 8.2%

18) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 23-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 7.8%

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19) Clemson Tigers

Record: 21-5

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 6.9%

20) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 20-6

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 6.8%

21) Baylor Bears

Record: 16-10

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 6.2%

22) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 17-10

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 5.6%

23) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 20-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 5.5%

24) UConn Huskies

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 5.2%

25) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 4.1%

26) UCLA Bruins

Record: 19-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.6%

27) Missouri Tigers

Record: 20-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.6%

28) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 19-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.5%

29) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 19-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 3.4%

30) BYU Cougars

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 2.7%

31) Saint Mary's Gaels

Record: 24-4

Conference: West Coast

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 2.6%

32) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 20-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 2.6%

33) Texas Longhorns

Record: 16-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 1.9%

34) Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 15-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 1.8%

35) Oregon Ducks

Record: 19-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 1.1%

36) Memphis Tigers

Record: 21-5

Conference: AAC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.9%

37) VCU Rams

Record: 21-5

Conference: Atlantic 10

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.8%

38) SMU Mustangs

Record: 20-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.8%

39) Utah State Aggies

Record: 23-4

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.8%

40) New Mexico Lobos

Record: 22-5

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN's Chance to Reach Final Four: 0.5%