NCAAF · 10 months ago

12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Based on AP Poll

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

2025 National Title: 1-seed (No. 1) Oregon vs. 2-seed (No. 2) Texas
Result: No. 1 Oregon Wins National Title Over No. 2 Texas
1 Seed - Oregon Ducks (Big Ten Champion)
The Oregon Ducks dispatched Washington as Dan Lanning exorcised the demons of the 2023 season. Granted, the personnel and coaching staff are substantially different, but it was still highly satisfying for the Ducks to take care of UW easily. Oregon is the No. 1 team in every poll and will have a chance to secure the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff bracket with a win in the Big Ten Championship Game against Penn State.

Big Ten Championship Game: Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)

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2 Seed - Texas Longhorns (SEC Champion)
The Texas Longhorns might have the country’s best defense, and that unit has propelled them to a berth in the SEC Championship Game. The defensive line has been dominant, and the Longhorns went to College Station and squeezed the life from the Texas A&M Aggies to secure a rematch with Georgia in Atlanta. The biggest concern with Texas will be the continued reliance on Quinn Ewers. Ewers has not looked fully healthy for a while, and his lack of mobility and the general lack of explosive plays for the offense are potential issues for their title chances. Texas has climbed to No. 2 in the polls. If they can beat the Bulldogs, Texas secures the two-seed and could climb to No. 1 if Oregon falls to Penn State.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5)
3 seed - (No. 8) SMU Mustangs (ACC Champion)
The Miami Hurricanes lost at Syracuse, Clemson lost to South Carolina, and SMU keeps taking care of business. The Mustangs are now the favorite to win the ACC title and the bye that should accompany it. SMU has a potent offense, but the excellent play of the defense has made them a viable contender not just to make the playoff but to be a dangerous team once they are there. The big question is how the playoff committee will treat SMU if they lose to Clemson. Would they get an at-large bid or drop out of the field? SMU has climbed to No. 8 in the AP Poll and will be the three-seed if they beat Clemson in Charlotte.

ACC Championship Game: Clemson at SMU (-2.5)
4 Seed - (No. 10) Boise State Broncos (G5 Selection)
The Boise State Broncos handled the Oregon State Beavers. In addition, the top Group of Five team behind them in the rankings, Tulane, lost to Memphis. Undoubtedly, if the Broncos can beat UNLV on Friday night in the Mountain West Conference Championship, Boise State will make the field and should earn a bye to the Fiesta Bowl. If Boise State were to lose, would the bid go to UNLV, or would it fall to the American Athletic title game winner between Tulane and Army?

Mountain West Conference Championship Game: UNLV at Boise State (-3.5)
12-seed (No. 12) Arizona State at 5-seed (No. 3) Penn State
The Arizona State Sun Devils blasted rival Arizona and improved to 10-2 on the season. They secured a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game and will take on the Iowa State Cyclones with a trip to the College Football Playoff on the line. ASU is a slight favorite, and if Boise State wins the Mountain West, the Big 12 champ will likely be slotted in as the 12-seed. If Boise State loses, Arizona State would climb to the four-seed and earn a bye to the Fiesta Bowl. In this projection, ASU would be playing at fifth-seeded and No. 3 Penn State. The Nittany Lions will face off with Oregon for the Big Ten Championship. A loss to the Ducks would not be punished, and PSU would get the coveted five-seed in the field, squeaking above Notre Dame. Penn State has steadily climbed since losing to Ohio State and hammered Maryland this past weekend.

Result: Penn State beats Arizona State
11-seed (No. 11) Alabama at 6-seed (No. 4) Notre Dame
What will the selection committee do with the final at-large spot? Does it go to South Carolina after they won at Clemson? Their argument could be thwarted by losing at home to Ole Miss in a blowout and losing to Alabama. How about the 9-3 Rebels? They have a dreadful home loss to Kentucky on their resume. Alabama? They lost 24-3 to Oklahoma and basically have a running back playing quarterback. Miami? The Hurricanes have two losses against a weak schedule with no marquee wins and several close calls. They were lucky not to be 8-4. The AP has spoken, and the spot goes to Alabama. The Crimson Tide beat the Auburn Tigers in a similar fashion to how they have found success all season: if Jalen Milroe can find running room, Alabama can score. If he cannot, the offense will be ugly. The Crimson Tide squeak in and travel to South Bend to play Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are ranked fourth after beating USC on Saturday.

Result: Notre Dame beats Alabama
10-seed (No. 9) Indiana at 7-seed (No. 5) Georgia
The Indiana Hoosiers needed to send a statement to the Playoff Selection Committee and left a heck of a last impression. IU improved to 11-1 with a historic splattering of rival Purdue, winning 66-0 and outgaining the Boilermakers 582 yards to 67. It was IU’s first shutout of the Boilers since 1945 and the largest margin of victory ever for Indiana in the rivalry. Question Indiana’s strength of schedule, but the results matter, and the Hoosiers have bludgeoned nearly everyone. IU moves up to No. 9 in the polls and draws a trip to Athens to play SEC runner-up Georgia. The Bulldogs somehow squeaked by against Georgia Tech, erasing a 14-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation and winning in eight overtimes to finish the regular season at 10-2. Georgia now plays Texas, with the winner getting a bye and the likely No. 2 seed in the bracket. The Bulldogs are ranked fifth in the country and are as battle-tested as anyone.

Result: Georgia beats Indiana
9-seed (No. 7) Ohio State at 8-seed (No. 6) Tennessee
The absolute shocker of the weekend was Ohio State losing at home to Michigan. The Wolverines were without their only real offensive weapon (Colston Loveland), and Ohio State was a 20.5-point favorite against their bitter rivals. Still, Ryan Day came up short in “The Game” again. That loss means Ohio State now has two defeats, and the committee’s last look at the Buckeyes was not pretty. The Buckeyes drop from No. 2 to 7 and are drawn away to No. 6 Tennessee in an exciting SEC-Big Ten matchup in Knoxville. The Volunteers looked great against Vanderbilt. After falling behind 14-0, the Vols roared back and found some firepower through the air, a promising sign moving forward. They are 10-2 with no real bad losses.

Result: Tennessee tops Ohio State

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Rose Bowl: 1-seed (No. 1) Oregon vs. 8-seed (No. 6) Tennessee
Result: No. 1 Oregon over No. 6 Tennessee
Sugar Bowl: 7-seed (No. 5) Georgia vs. 2-seed (No. 2) Texas
Result: No. 2 Texas beats No. 5 Georgia
Peach Bowl: 3-seed (No. 8) SMU vs. 6-seed (No. 4) Notre Dame
Result: No. 4 Notre Dame beats No. 8 SMU
Fiesta Bowl: 4-seed (No. 10) Boise State vs. 5-seed (No. 3) Penn State
Result: No. 3 Penn State beats No. 10 Boise State
Cotton Bowl: 1-seed (No. 1) Oregon vs. 5-seed (No. 3) Penn State
Result: No. 1 Oregon beats No. 3 Penn State
Orange Bowl: 2-seed (No. 2) Texas vs. 6-seed (No. 4) Notre Dame
Result: No. 2 Texas tops No. 4 Notre Dame
2025 National Title: 1-seed (No. 1) Oregon vs. 2-seed (No. 2) Texas
Result: No. 1 Oregon Wins National Title Over No. 2 Texas
1 Seed - Oregon Ducks (Big Ten Champion)
The Oregon Ducks dispatched Washington as Dan Lanning exorcised the demons of the 2023 season. Granted, the personnel and coaching staff are substantially different, but it was still highly satisfying for the Ducks to take care of UW easily. Oregon is the No. 1 team in every poll and will have a chance to secure the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff bracket with a win in the Big Ten Championship Game against Penn State.

Big Ten Championship Game: Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)

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12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Based on AP Poll

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