Big Ten Picks: Boise State vs Washington Prediction | LA Bowl
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
The College Football Playoff slate is set with three Big Ten teams—No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 5 Oregon—selected to the 12-team field. The CFP doesn’t start until next Friday, December 19, but that doesn’t mean we have to wait for action.
The rest of the college football world—mostly (sans Notre Dame and some others)—marches on, and bowl season kicks off on Saturday night when the B1G’s Washington Huskies take on the Boise State Broncos out of the Mountain West Conference in the final LA Bowl. This is the first of nine non-CFP bowl games the Big Ten will play.
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Last Week: 0-0 (0 UNITS) | Overall: 48-47 (+1/2 UNIT)
Not So B1G Bets: 31-29 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 14-15 (-1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 2-3 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
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Where to Watch LA Bowl: Washington vs. Boise State
- Stadium: SoFi Stadium
- Location: Inglewood, CA
- Where to Watch: ABC
- Date: December 13, 2025
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
LA Bowl: Washington vs. Boise State Betting Odds
- Spread: Washington -9.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 52.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
- Moneyline: Washington -335 | Boise State +270
LA Bowl: Washington vs. Boise State Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Boise State 25% | Washington 75%
- Spread: Washington -9.5 Yes 52¢ | No 51¢
- Total: Over 54.5 Yes 46¢ | No 55¢
Big Ten Bowl Game College Football Picks
B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Season: 2-3 (-1.5 UNITS)
WASHINGTON -9.5 Boise State (@FanDuel)
If you’ve been following B1G Bets at all this season, you already know I’m a big fan of this Washington team. Now they haven’t measured up in their three most challenging games, with double-digit losses to Ohio State, Oregon, and at Michigan. However, they finished 8-1 in their other nine games, with seven of their wins coming by at least 17 points. If they can put it on you, they will.
On the flip side, this isn’t a vintage Boise State team. The Broncos have faced three teams ranked in the SP+ top 50 and are 0-3 against them. Not only are they winless, but they lost all three by double digits: 34-7 at No. 23 USF, 28-7 @ No. 6 Notre Dame, and 17-7 at No. 47 San Diego State. Washington, while unranked in the CFP and polls, is No. 16 in the SP+ rankings.
The Huskies bring an offense as good as any outside the College Football Playoff, ranked in the top 20 in success rate (6th), EPA (15th), points per drive (17th), and quality drive rate (11th). The Broncos have good overall defensive metrics, but looking deeper, there are red flag weaknesses that UW can expose.
Boise State gives up a ton of yards after contact (129th), is an overall bad tackling team, doesn’t get to the passer often, and is especially vulnerable to scrambling quarterbacks (111th in EPA on QB scrambles). Washington should be able to run the ball with their powerful one-two punch in the backfield, and the defenses that were able to give them trouble this season were those that got home to the quarterback.
Dual-threats have fared well against the Broncos, and I’m confident in saying they haven’t faced anyone as dynamic as Demond Williams Jr. (595 rushing yards and 6 TDs). Not just an explosive runner, he’s completed 70 percent of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt and 21 TDs.
In blowout wins over Purdue and UCLA (97 points), Jedd Fisch’s team showed they can win without all their marquee players. Nevertheless, according to the head coach, his team will be at 100 percent, so if we get both RB1 Jonah Coleman and WR1 Denzel Boston, that’s a bonus. Sophomore Adam Mohammed and freshman Dezmen Roebuck headline a deep group of underclassmen who have proven they are more than capable of taking over the reins.
Part of the reason I’m so high on the Huskies in the Bucked Up LA Bowl is an underrated defense (ranked 14th in SP+) that tackles very well, gets a push upfront against the run, and limits yards after the catch. It’s a group that has gotten healthier and better as the season has gone on. They have the edge over Boise State’s very mediocre offense: 50th in EPA and 82nd in success rate.
It’s an offense that goes from average at best to flat-out bad against the best defenses they’ve faced. They’ve squared up versus three defenses ranked inside SP+’s top 50; the Broncos scored just seven points against Notre Dame (11th in SP+), Fresno State (43rd), and San Diego State (16th). The next best defense on their schedule was USF (60th in SP+). Oh yeah, they managed only seven points against them, too.
Look for Washington to hold Boise to below 20 points and cruise to a double-digit victory.
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