NCAAF · 1 year ago

Bubble Watch: Potential College Football Playoff Teams

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

10. Army Black Knights
The Army Black Knights have the country's top rushing attack and keep pounding teams as they sit at 7-0. The schedule has been about as weak as possible thus far. The best team the Black Knights have played is probably East Carolina, and the Pirates are 3-4 with a 1-2 record in the American Athletic Conference. Army’s candidacy comes down to three games: Notre Dame on November 23, the American Athletic Conference Championship Game (probably against Navy), and the regular season finale against Navy on December 14. If Army wins out, they will pass Boise State and likely find themselves as a real threat to host a first-round game. There is no real that the Group of Five selection has to be the 12th seed. If Army loses any of those games, they probably don’t have the strength of schedule to muster a playoff bid.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Army (+1300)

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1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Yes, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, which is an anchor that threatened to sink their season. In a four-team playoff, it would have. The 12-team playoff gives Notre Dame an entire season to get back into the picture, and they are nearly there. USC tanking is not good for Notre Dame’s strength of schedule, but they are getting a surprising boost from Army and Navy, as both are currently ranked and unbeaten. Notre Dame has to win out, but if they finish 11-1, the Fighting Irish will almost certainly have a spot in the field.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Notre Dame (-155)

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2. Clemson Tigers
The Clemson Tigers were shelled by Georgia in the second half of the season opener, but they have responded with six straight victories, climbing to No. 9 in the polls. Clemson has a bye this week, and the final stretch of their schedule is more challenging than it has been in the past few weeks. They host Louisville before playing at Virginia Tech and Pitt, and close with Citadel and the Palmetto Bowl against South Carolina. I believe Clemson has two paths to the College Football Playoff: win out to finish 11-1 and make the ACC Championship Game, beating Miami or SMU (they would beat Pitt and eliminate the Panthers in this scenario), and earn the first-round bye. Or, win out to finish 11-1, miss the ACC Championship Game to SMU and Miami and get an at-large selection. The lack of strength in the ACC and the fact they don’t play Miami or SMU in the regular season means Clemson cannot lose another game before the playoff to feel good about making it.

2024 College Football Playoff: Clemson (-185)
3. LSU Tigers
The LSU Tigers are currently 6-1, with an opening week loss to USC as the only blemish on their resume. They have wins at South Carolina and Arkansas and against Ole Miss at home. The Tigers now go to Texas A&M for a critical showdown. A win gives them a significant leg-up in the race for the SEC Championship Game, and it is a head-to-head clash between two playoff bubble teams. LSU is a slight underdog in College Station. They close the season with a home game against Alabama, a road trip to Gainesville, and then Vanderbilt and Oklahoma at home. A 10-2 LSU squad with wins over Ole Miss, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Florida should be enough. It would get dicey if they dropped a game at Texas A&M and then lost one more.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: LSU (+105)
4. Texas A&M Aggies
The Texas A&M Aggies lost the season-opener at home to Notre Dame. That’s not a damaging loss, but Notre Dame’s subsequent loss to Northern Illinois makes it a defeat to a fellow bubble team. Since that loss, the Aggies have won over Florida, Bowling Green, Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi State. None of those are marquee victories, but they are solid wins, and Texas A&M has improved quite a bit, particularly on offense. The final portion of their schedule features a critical game this weekend against LSU, followed by a tricky trip to South Carolina. They close with a matchup against bitter rival Texas in College Station on Thanksgiving weekend. The winner of Texas A&M versus LSU has a gigantic edge on making the SEC Championship Game as both are still unbeaten in the league. If Texas A&M splits with LSU and Texas and avoids tripping up anywhere else, that is probably enough to get into the College Football Playoff field.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Texas A&M (+125)
5. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee has not played like a College Football Playoff team this season. Their win over North Carolina State has lost a lot of luster as the Wolfpack have failed to live up to preseason expectations. The Vols’ offense has sputtered and can’t seem to hit explosive plays, and looking at their resume leaves you wanting a lot more from them. Tennessee survived over Alabama to keep their hopes alive, and now, they have a bye week. Tennessee plays Kentucky and Mississippi State at home, and they should win those games, but a massive test at Georgia awaits on November 16. Can Tennessee get in with a 10-2 record and their best two wins being Alabama at home and at Vanderbilt or Oklahoma? I don’t think that is good enough.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Tennessee (-185)
6. Indiana Hoosiers
The Indiana Hoosiers are a legitimate threat to make the College Football Playoff. It’s not a fluke, and it’s not a misprint. Indiana is 7-0, and they have had the best scoring margin of any team nationally since the beginning of the 2020 season (IU is +245 currently). It is fair to ask: “Who have they beaten?” The answer would be, “No one particularly great.” That written, UCLA just beat Rutgers, and IU walloped them on the road; Maryland just beat USC, and IU handled them 42-28. They won at Northwestern 41-24 and obliterated a 5-1 Nebraska team 56-7. Indiana has to clear a big hurdle as starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke injured his thumb. Tayven Jackson will be the starter indefinitely, with games coming up against Washington, Michigan State, and Michigan. IU will be at least a short favorite until they play at Ohio State on November 23. If Indiana goes 11-1 and then misses out on the Big Ten Championship Game to a combination of Oregon, Ohio State, or Penn State, they would almost certainly make the College Football Playoff. Is there enough “meat on the bone” for the Hoosiers to make the field at 10-2? Probably not.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Indiana (+200)
7. Ole Miss Rebels
The Ole Miss Rebels have a pair of damaging losses already but have great underlying metrics that suggest they still have a shot to run the table and get into the field. The loss at LSU was to a fellow bubble team, and the defeat to Kentucky was at home and against a team that might not even make a bowl game. The most significant detriment to their chances is probably the remaining schedule. Ole Miss gets Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi State, plus a must-win game against Georgia at home. The Rebels have to beat the Bulldogs to have any shot, but will beating UGA at home be enough, given the rest of the schedule and the two losses? The Rebels will need to win out, and they’ll need some help elsewhere to squeak in.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Ole Miss (+210)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is still favored to make the College Football Playoff. They are -110 to make the 12-team field, but those numbers and the betting public are being generous to a team that does not look like a playoff squad. The Tide’s win over Georgia looks excellent, and it will have staying power when it is time for the selection committee to choose the field. Beyond that, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee and should have lost at home to South Carolina. They now play Missouri before a road trip to LSU. If Alabama can improve themselves quite a bit, find a running game outside of Jalen Milroe, and improve vastly in the secondary, they will have a shot to finish 10-2 and make the playoff. Otherwise, another loss or two seems quite likely.
9. SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs began the season inauspiciously with a sloppy and narrow win over Nevada and then a disappointing 18-15 loss at home to BYU. SMU switched from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, and the attack took off. BYU remains unbeaten, and that loss has taken on a much different context since it occurred. The Mustangs are still unbeaten in the ACC and have a win at Louisville. They now play at Duke before a matchup with unbeaten Pittsburgh on November 2. SMU, Clemson, Pitt, and Miami are all still unbeaten in the ACC, and Clemson, SMU, and Miami do not play each other in the regular season. That will create some interesting tiebreaker scenarios if they remain unbeaten in league play. Does SMU have a shot to make the College Football Playoff if they go 11-1 and run the table in the ACC but do not make it to the ACC Championship Game? They would almost certainly not get in with the same record and then a loss in the ACC Championship Game, as silly as that might be. The Mustangs are a team to keep an eye on.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: SMU (+250)
10. Army Black Knights
The Army Black Knights have the country's top rushing attack and keep pounding teams as they sit at 7-0. The schedule has been about as weak as possible thus far. The best team the Black Knights have played is probably East Carolina, and the Pirates are 3-4 with a 1-2 record in the American Athletic Conference. Army’s candidacy comes down to three games: Notre Dame on November 23, the American Athletic Conference Championship Game (probably against Navy), and the regular season finale against Navy on December 14. If Army wins out, they will pass Boise State and likely find themselves as a real threat to host a first-round game. There is no real that the Group of Five selection has to be the 12th seed. If Army loses any of those games, they probably don’t have the strength of schedule to muster a playoff bid.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Army (+1300)

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1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Yes, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, which is an anchor that threatened to sink their season. In a four-team playoff, it would have. The 12-team playoff gives Notre Dame an entire season to get back into the picture, and they are nearly there. USC tanking is not good for Notre Dame’s strength of schedule, but they are getting a surprising boost from Army and Navy, as both are currently ranked and unbeaten. Notre Dame has to win out, but if they finish 11-1, the Fighting Irish will almost certainly have a spot in the field.

2024 College Football Playoff Odds: Notre Dame (-155)

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Bubble Watch: Potential College Football Playoff Teams

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