NCAAF · 10 months ago

College Football Best Bets for Week 8: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

College Football Best Bets for Week 8: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” – Mike Tyson

I got punched in the face…time to find out if I have a plan.

In Week 8 of the college football season, we have seven Big Ten games to choose from. We are sitting out Oregon at Purdue, Nebraska at Indiana, and UCLA at Rutgers. We have six bets in the remaining four games, four ATS sides, and two team totals.

Last Week: 3-8 (-4) | Overall: 20-23-1 (-2 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 8-12-1 (-2 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 8-7 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 4-2 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-2 (-4 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 11-14-1 (-4 UNITS) | Team Totals: 8-6 (+3 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-3 (-1 UNIT)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 3-5 | Season: 8-12-1 (-2 UNITS)

NORTHWESTERN +8.5 Wisconsin (BetMGM)

The Badgers have won the past two games by wide margins, but I’m still not sold. Did those outcomes say more about their opponents than Wisconsin has turned the corner? Their metrics are better than Northwestern’s but not overly impressive: They are 79th in EPA margin and 92nd in net field position.

Wisconsin is ranked 49th in points per drive, compared to a Northwestern defense that ranks 57th. Pretty close. Defensively, the Badgers haven’t been great—82nd in points per drive, and the Wildcats have shown life offensively since Jack Lausch entered the starting lineup with 24-plus points in three of his four starts. Lausch gives them the ability to push the ball down the field while still being able to make things happen as a runner.

I’ll take the home dog getting over a touchdown in a game that figures to be low-scoring (41.5 total).

ILLINOIS UNDER 20.5 (FanDuel)

Illinois cannot run the ball (109th in success rate, 78th in EPA/rush) and will be without leading rusher Kaden Feagin. They will be even more one-dimensional and rely heavily on throwing the football. Michigan’s pass defense has been better than given credit for, as they’re ranked 23rd in EPA/dropback and 25th in dropback success rate. Future top-ten pick Will Johnson will take away one of the Illini’s weapons, while the duo of Jyaire Hill (5 PDs, 1 INT) and Aamir Hall (2 PDs) have also impacted coverage.

Illinois has improved in pass protection this season but had a rough night against the top pass rush they’ve faced this season (24.9 pass-blocking grade vs. Penn State per PFF), which resulted in a season-worst seven points. Michigan’s No. 1 rated pass rush win rate is among the few higher than PSU’s, and Luke Altmyer can tend to hold on to the football.

The Wolverines should have the edge up front with a troika of edge rushers in Josaiah Stewart (B1G-leading 5 sacks), Derrick Moore (missed last game), and TJ Guy (2.5 sacks), with Mason Graham (3.5 sacks) knifing through the interior and big Kenneth Grant clogging up the middle when he isn’t batting passes down (4 PDs) with this big paw.

Tempo favors a Wolverines defense that has high-end talent but not as deep as last season. Michigan is 131st in plays per minute, and Illinois is 111th.

Iowa -5 MICHIGAN STATE (ESPNBet)

Did you see what Iowa did to a pretty decent Washington defense? The Huskies had allowed 13.2 PPG going into last week’s game before the Hawkeyes put up a 40 burger. Yes, Iowa only had 328 yards and took advantage of some short fields, but they also averaged 6.4 yards per rush (sack adjusted) behind 166 yards (7.9 YPC) and two touchdowns from Kaleb Johnson, the B1G’s leading rusher (937 yards, 7.9 YPC, 12 total TDs). Cade McNamara also averaged 13.5 yards per completion. They moved the ball, and this is the best we’ve seen the Iowa offensive line play in years.

This is simplistic, but the Hawkeyes are the better team. They’re better down-to-down: 28th in EPA margin vs. 70th. And even more so on the margins: 23rd in net field position vs. 102nd, 16th in turnover margin vs. 119th, and 1st in penalties (fewest in college football) vs. 114th.

Iowa’s four wins have come by an average margin of 24.5 points, including a 17-point win at Minnesota and a 24-point win over Washington. They win this one by more than a touchdown!

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B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-1 | Season: 8-7 (+1 UNITS)

MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 16.5 (FanDuel)

I didn’t follow my own rule last week. Whenever I bet on Iowa, I’m betting at least as much, if not more, on the Hawkeyes’ defense (I took the game total instead). After a bit of a slow start this season—primarily due to big plays—we’re seeing the Hawkeyes play their brand of defense over the past three weeks.

They shut out the Gophers in the second half (14 points in the game), held Ohio State to seven points in the first half, and Washington to a season-low 16 points. Over that span, they’ve allowed one play of longer than 31 yards—to OSU’s freaky freshman Jeremiah Smith.

Did you see what they did to Washington? The Huskies averaged just 7.8 yards per completion and 5.32 yards per pass, well below their season averages of 11.5 yards per completion and 8.4 yards per pass.

On Saturday, they will face an MSU offense that is 104th in points per drive, 89th in EPA, and 98th in success rate. The offense is terrible on early downs (112th EPA) and 3rd/4th downs (110th success rate).

Iowa’s defense matches up very well. They are ranked 47th in points per drive, 15th in EPA, and 62nd in offensive success rate. The defense is good on early downs (34th EPA) and 3rd/4th downs (48th success rate). They have playmakers at every level. Linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson are two of the most intelligent players in the Big Ten and have combined for five PDs and two INTs. Defensive end Aaron Graves (5 sacks) headlines a solid front four, and Jermari Harris (5 PDs, 3 INTs) is a top-notch cover corner.

A mistake-prone young quarterback like Aidan Chiles (56.6 completion rate, 5 TD passes, 8 INTs) against Iowa’s ball-hawking back seven will create several turnover-worthy plays or force the Spartans to play conservatively. Either way, we’re backing the Hawkeyes defense.

MSU’s offense is 103rd in plays per minute, one spot ahead of Iowa at 104, so opportunities should be at a minimum.

Michigan -3.5 ILLINOIS (FanDuel)

It’s now or never for the Wolverines. They switched to Jack Tuttle against Washington, and he gave them some spark. No one’s ready to nominate Tuttle for the Heisman, but he does appear to be Michigan’s best option, so the extra week to prepare has come at the right time for the defending champs. If they will show any signs of life this season, it has to start now.

Even with Tuttle running the offense, we expect the offense to lean on the running game featuring the powerful Kalel Mullings (589 yards, 6.4 YPC, 6 TDs) and explosive Donovan Edwards (353 yards, 4.8 YPC, 3 TDs), who is coming off his best game of the season (95 yards, 6.8 YPC).

They’re 22nd in rushing success rate and 28th in EPA/rush. Expect a heavy dose of Mullings and Edwards against an Illinois run defense that ranks 78th in EPA/rush and 115 in rushing success rate. The Illini allow a whopping 5.4 yards per carry, including 2.1 yards before contact.

With the extra week to prepare, expect the Wolverines to make adjustments on both sides of the ball to take advantage of their strengths.

MARYLAND +7.5 USC (FanDuel)

Everyone has hyped how Big Ten teams traveling multiple time zones have struggled on the road. It’s true, such teams are 3-10. However, the favorites in those games are 10-3, so maybe the better team is winning. That includes Ohio State losing at Oregon in a game they easily could have won.

The two exceptions? USC (-6) at Michigan and USC (-8.5) at Minnesota, losing outright twice. As we told you two weeks ago when we were on the Gophers, Lincoln Riley’s teams tend to underperform on the road. He is now 2-9 ATS as a road favorite at USC and 3-12 ATS as a road favorite since 2021. And this is USC’s first actual East Coast game in ten years.

We’re not calling for an upset—we didn’t expect Minnesota to pull it off either—but there’s no reason the Terps can’t keep it close. With an inconsistent offensive line and below-average defense, the Trojans don’t have the type of roster that travels well.

A thin defense will have their depth tested. Not only did DT Bear Alexander leave the team, but their best linebacker and run defender, Eric Gentry, is out for the season, as is their top edge rusher, Anthony Lucas, and starting cornerback, Jacobe Covington, is questionable.

USC’s defense is 78th in success rate: 72nd versus the rush and 86th against the pass. Maryland’s offense has been very effective: 40th in points per drive, 23rd in EPA, and 47th in success rate. QB Billy Edwards has been better than advertised this season, completing 68.4% of his passes with 11 TDs to 3 INTs and finding a lot of success feeding WR Tai Felton (719 yards, 5 TDs). The Terps have balance with three running backs averaging at least 4.7 YPC.