5 Overrated and 5 Underrated Teams in CFP Rankings
TJ Inman
Host · Writer
We have reached November, and teams have played at least two-thirds of their regular-season schedule. There is still much to unfold, but we can already make several observations about which teams are overhyped and overrated.
1. OVERRATED – No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have six straight wins after dropping their opening two games. One of those defeats was at home to now No. 3 Texas A&M, but the other was to Miami. The Hurricanes now have two losses, which is becoming a significant problem for the Fighting Irish’s playoff chances. What has Notre Dame done to rocket up the rankings? They have wins over mediocre to poor teams in Purdue, Arkansas, and Boise State, plus a bad showing against Boston College before winning 25-10. The victories over North Carolina State and USC are nice, but this is not the resume of a top ten team. The Irish now get Navy (who has a very suspect defense) before playing at a very dangerous Pittsburgh team.
Week 11: Navy at Notre Dame (-25.5)
2. OVERRATED – No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners got a massive victory at Tennessee (more on them later) and improved to 7-2 on the season. Did anything about the performance of John Mateer on Saturday suggest the offense was fixed? Tennessee outgained Oklahoma by 105 yards, and Mateer was only 19-29 for 159 yards with one interception. OU’s vaunted defense allowed Joey Aguilar to go haywire for 393 yards through the air, and Tennessee had 456 yards total. OU will get a chance to prove they deserve this ranking with games remaining against Alabama, Missouri, and LSU.
3. No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers
The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1, and they deserve a ton of credit for orchestrating a storybook season (at least through nine games). They won another close game with a victory at Cal, but they have not beaten a team by more than ten points since the week four triumph at Stanford. The resume includes a win over Florida State and a great victory at Louisville, but no advanced statistics suggest Virginia is a top-15 team. UVA closes with Wake Forest, Duke, and Virginia Tech, and there’s a very real chance they earn a chance to play for the ACC Championship.
Week 11: Wake Forest at Virginia (-6.5)
4. OVERRATED – No. 18 Miami Hurricanes
Let’s all say this together: “Miami is so talented!" That’s true, but the Hurricanes continue to find ways to lose, and their College Football Playoff hopes are now on life support after dropping in overtime at SMU. The Hurricanes should not be losing to Louisville or SMU, but Mario Cristobal’s acumen as a head coach is now really being called into question. Cristobal is a heck of a recruiter, but Miami fans should be apprehensive about what happens when opponents have a chance to watch his teams play early in the season and then make adjustments that Cristobal does not see coming and fails to adjust to. Over the past two seasons, the Miami Hurricanes have been 14-1 before Halloween and a miserable 1-4 in November and December games. Miami will not be playing in the ACC Championship Game, and they’ll need some help to sniff the playoff. The win over Notre Dame is really the only thing propping up their resume.
Week 11: Syracuse at Miami (-28.5)
5. OVERRATED – No. 22 Missouri Tigers
I respect the job Eli Drinkwitz has done with the Missouri Tigers, and it certainly makes sense that he’s a candidate for the Florida and perhaps Penn State jobs. That said, what has this year’s Missouri Tigers squad, a team now without starting quarterback Beau Pribula, done to deserve being ranked in the top 25? Missouri’s wins have come against Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, UMass, and by six points at Auburn. That’s one road victory and zero wins against teams with a winning record. With games remaining against Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and a resilient Mississippi State squad, the bottom could fall out for Mizzou.
Week 11: Texas A&M (-7.5) at Missouri
6. UNDERRATED – No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
I understand why the College Football Playoff Committee placed the BYU Cougars ahead of the Texas Tech Red Raiders as the top-ranked team in the Big 12. I just disagree with it. Texas Tech blasted Utah in Salt Lake City (34-10) while the Cougars barely squeaked by them in Provo. The only blemish on Texas Tech’s resume is a 26-22 defeat at Arizona State, and they have been far more impressive than BYU most weeks on both offense and defense. The two meet head-to-head this Saturday in Lubbock, so we won’t have to wait long to see this play out.
Week 11: BYU at Texas Tech (-10.5)
7. UNDERRATED – No. 9 Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks were expected to be right around No. 6 or 7, so it was a surprise to see them placed at No. 9. Oregon has one defeat on the season, which came at the hands of the No. 2 team in the country, 30-20. The biggest knock on Oregon’s resume is the degradation of the win at Penn State. At the time, PSU was No. 3 in the country, and that victory would be right up there with IU’s win at Oregon. However, some of the shine has come off the victory as Penn State has tanked since. The Nittany Lions squad that Oregon beat was in a much different place than they are now, and I think Oregon is getting downgraded a bit too much in hindsight. With games remaining against Iowa, USC, and Washington, they’ll have a chance to climb.
Week 11: Oregon (-6.5) at Iowa
8. UNDERRATED – No. 15 Louisville Cardinals
Jeff Brohm is one of the best and most creative offensive tacticians in college football, and I continue to believe the Cardinals are the ACC team the other College Football Playoff participants would least like to face. Louisville has a great win at Miami, plus victories over Pitt on the road and James Madison at home. The Cardinals are solid on defense, and if Isaac Brown can get healthy, they have a very explosive running game. This is a very dangerous team.
Week 11: Cal at Louisville (-20.5)
9. UNDERRATED – No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes
There is a stigma around the Iowa Hawkeyes football program. Kirk Ferentz’s team is viewed as “boring" and “slow" and not much else. Those are often fair criticisms, but the Hawkeyes are one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten, and they are now 6-2 and 4-1 in the Big Ten, with the lone loss coming in a close game against the Indiana Hoosiers. Iowa has held opponents to just 75 points in five league games and has won two of its past three games, 37-0 and 41-3. The Hawkeyes are scoring points at a good clip, and the defense is still excellent. They are a sleeper to rise in these rankings with games remaining against Oregon and USC.
Week 11: Oregon (-6.5) at Iowa
10. UNDERRATED – No. 24 Pittsburgh Panthers
I’m glad the College Football Playoff Committee recognized Pitt and ranked them, but they should be a few spots higher. The Panthers are 7-2 and 5-1 in the ACC, but they are unbeaten since switching to quarterback Mason Heintschel, and Pat Narduzzi’s team has the best offense in the ACC with 227 points through six games. Pitt has blowout wins over Boston College, Syracuse, North Carolina State, and Stanford, plus a close win at Florida State, since the switch to Heintschel, and Notre Dame should be on high alert for their matchup on November 15.
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