Big Ten Bowl Picks: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan Prediction | GameAbove Sports Bowl
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
James Madison got us with a backdoor cover in their College Football Playoff loss at Oregon to drop our bowl record to 1-1, but we’re still up a full unit thanks to Washington’s blowout win the previous Saturday. This weekend of college football offers three bowl games on Friday and eight on Saturday, including three involving Big Ten teams.
On Friday, there’s a doubleheader with Northwestern taking on Central Michigan in Detroit, followed by Minnesota facing New Mexico in the Rate Bowl. Saturday’s action features a matchup many predicted going into the season: Penn State vs. Clemson. Instead of the CFP semifinal, they’ll meet in the hotbed of college football, the Bronx, for the Pinstripe Bowl. Not what anyone predicted for these preseason top five teams.
One constant for B1G Bets during bowl season for the past five years has been backing P.J. Fleck’s Golden Gophers, but in this case, New Mexico might have the better team. That’s my lean, if the line were still Minnesota giving three, I’d be on the Lobos. At 1.5, it’s a pass. The same goes for PSU-Clemson, where there are too many opt-outs for my liking.
We’ll be back early next week with more Big Ten bowl picks heading into New Year’s Day.
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Last Week: 0-1 (-1/2 UNIT) | Overall: 49-48 (+1.5 UNITS)
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Where to Watch the GameAbove Sports Bowl
- Stadium: Ford Field
- Location: Detroit, MI
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: December 26, 2025
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Sports Bowl: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan Betting Odds
- Spread: Northwestern -10.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 42.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
- Moneyline: Northwestern -400 | CMU +315
Sports Bowl: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Northwestern 77% | CMU 923%
- Spread: Northwestern -9.5 Yes 53¢ | No 48¢
- Total: Over 43.5 Yes 50¢ | No 53¢
Big Ten Bowl Game College Football Picks
NOT SO B1G BETS:
Central Michigan UNDER 16.5
Ranked 115th by SP+, Central Michigan’s offense is easily the worst any Big Ten team will face in the bowl season, and it’s not even close.
While Northwestern went through the 29th-ranked strength of schedule to make a bowl, CMU’s docket was 101st in SOS. The Chippewas faced two Power 4 teams in 2025 and managed a total of 20 points against Pittsburgh and Michigan. Going into the GameAbove Sports Bowl, CMU’s offense ranks 106th in EPA, 99th in success rate, 95th in quality drive rate, and 91st in points per drive.
Central Michigan likes to employ two- and three-tight end formations, which might work in the MAC but aren’t ideal for matching up against a Big Ten defense. Even with that strategy, they typically get behind the sticks (94th in early-down EPA), which makes it difficult to move the chains effectively (115th in 3rd/4th-down success rate). If the ‘Cats can get them into obvious passing situations, look for the pass rush to get to the quarterback.
Northwestern’s defense has been good but not great—bend but don’t break. Against an offense that does very little well—lacks explosiveness and doesn’t finish drives—this is an excellent matchup for the defense. The one aspect of Central’s offense that has been impressive is its ability to gain yards after the catch (27th), which the Wildcats excel at preventing (sixth nationally), while facing some of the better passing offenses in college football, like Oregon and USC.
Half of the team’s opponents on Northwestern’s schedule were top-50 offenses in college football. Here’s what the ‘Cats did against Western Illinois, UL Monroe, and the worst two B1G offenses they faced: gave up seven points to WIU, 14 to UCLA, seven to ULM, and shutout Purdue. The Chippewas are an offense they can handle.
The ‘Cats also have a significant advantage in special teams, which is ranked 14th by SP+ compared to 85th for CMU.
We expect the Wildcats to play hard with no reported opt-outs on defense. Both teams move at a slow pace, ranked near the bottom in tempo, which favors our first post-Christmas bowl bet: the Chippewas under.
