California Golden Bears vs Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors: Hawai’i Bowl Best Bets

Bowl season continues with Wednesday’s Hawai’i Bowl between the California Golden Bears and Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors. The Rainbow Warriors have moved from underdogs to short favorites, but the betting value has been drained from this line. The pendulum will start swinging the other direction, leaving bettors with a favorable entry point.

Check out what bets we’re targeting when Cal takes on Hawai’i on Wednesday night!

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Where to Watch California Golden Bears vs Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

Stadium: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Location: Honolulu, HI
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

California Golden Bears vs Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors Betting Odds

Spread: CAL +1.5 (-112) | HAW -1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: CAL -102 | HAW -116

California Golden Bears vs Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors Kalshi Odds

Chance: CAL 49% | HAW 51%
Spread: HAW -2.5 Yes 48¢ | No 53¢
Total: Over 49.5 Yes 56¢ | No 46¢

The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors are coming off their most successful campaign in recent memory. Eclipsing eight wins only once since 2010, the Rainbow Warriors are going for their ninth win in Wednesday’s clash versus the California Golden Bears. Hawai’i has moved from +2.5 underdogs to -1.5 favorites, but their chances of victory aren’t as promising as the betting line implies.

The MWC contenders rely almost exclusively on their passing game to gain yards. Hawai’i averaged 289.7 through the air this season, accounting for 73.6% of its offensive production. Quarterback Micah Alejado deserves credit for his relentless approach on offense, but we are not expecting him to continue his assault against the Golden Bears.

Cal stacks up incredibly well against the pass. The Golden Bears ranked 24th in passing defense this season, giving up just over 202 yards per game. Still, they improved that standing with a stellar end to the regular season. Across their last three games, the ACC squad held opponents to a combined 576 passing yards, or just 192.0 yards per game.

Opponents have had much more success running the ball against Cal, but Hawai’i can’t be trusted to get the ground game moving. Their leading rusher totaled just 523 yards on 113 carries, or a paltry 4.6 yards per rushing attempt.

The Rainbow Warriors’ only offensive strength plays right into Cal’s elite defensive acumen. Without a viable rushing attack, Hawai’i will struggle to gain any traction. At the same time, the hosts lack the defensive integrity to slow down the Golden Bears’ pass-heavy offense. Naturally, that points us toward California as short road underdogs in the Hawai’i Bowl.

Best Bet: Hawai’i +1.5 -112

In any given game, player props are a solid indicator of what to expect. In that regard, the betting market has tipped its hand with what to expect on Wednesday night. Golden Bears’ quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele enters the contest with a meaty 279.5 passing yards prop. For him to reach that lofty benchmark, he’ll need production from his top pass-catching option. Expect Jacob De Jesus to do his part to help Sagapolutele reach his full potential in Hawai’i.

De Jesus has been on the rise over the past few weeks. Across his last three outings, the senior has totaled a mind-numbing 42 receptions and 351 yards on 55 targets. Implicit in those metrics are his 39.6% target share and 18.3 targets per game. Surely, that high-volume approach will serve De Jesus well in Hawai’i.

We also have significant concerns about the Rainbow Warriors’ defensive abilities. Hawai’i has failed to contain even inferior passing attacks. San Jose State dropped 458 passing yards on the Rainbow Warriors back in Week 10. Before that, Utah State, Fresno State, and Air Force all experienced varying degrees of success in throwing the ball versus their conference rivals. Those four teams combined to have five players eclipse the century mark against Hawai’i.

Cal throws the ball more than just about any program in the country. Their 58.6% passing play percentage was the seventh-highest in the FBS, and it’s a strength they will rely on in the Hawai’i Bowl. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele will have a lofty passing prop total, which should be made more attainable by Jacob De Jesus’ inclusion in the offensive attack. The premier value lies in backing the Golden Bears’ receiver to reach at least 125 receiving yards at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.

Best Bet: Jacob De Jesus to Record 125+ Receiving Yards +205

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