NCAAF · 2 hours ago

College Football Week 2 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Win some, lose some. That was the story of Week 1 as we went 4-4 to start the season. Proper allocation allowed us to finish in the black, slightly. Like most teams, we aim to make a significant improvement as we transition from Week 1 to Week 2.

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

Last Week: 4-4 (+0.5 UNITS) | Overall: 4-4 (+0.5 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 2-3 (-0.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 2-1 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 0-4 (-2.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 3-0 (+2.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-0 (+0.5 UNITS)

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 2-3 | Season: 2-3 (-0.5 UNITS)

Michigan +5.5 OKLAHOMA (FanDuel)

At 2.5 or three, this is a pass. Maybe even at 3.5. But at plus 5.5 points, I have to gobble them up!

What changed from last week? I’m aware Oklahoma won 35-3 over Illinois State while Michigan allowed New Mexico to hang around in a 34-17 win.

Did we really learn anything positive about Oklahoma? John Mateer lit it up, but he always does against inferior opponents. My biggest takeaway was the fact that OU couldn’t run the ball against an FCS team with 32 carries for 103 yards (3.2 YPC).

Did we really learn anything negative about Michigan? They didn’t come close to covering, but they did average 7.31 yards per play, while allowing 4.33. That’s the 83rd percentile on offense compared to the third percentile for the Lobos. New Mexico’s 17 points came on a fourth-down trick play, a field goal after Michigan fumbled the kickoff, and on a drive that was extended by a third-down incompletion that was ruled a catch (and not reviewed) on the series that followed the much-talked-about questionable targeting call. This easily could have been a shutout.

My biggest takeaway was the fact that Bryce Underwood should be the starting quarterback and might be a superstar. This is not to discount the fact that he is a true freshman, who recently turned 18 years old, playing in his first road game against his first Power Four opponent in a rowdy atmosphere against an excellent defense. But we knew all that last week when the line was still around three. After Week 1, when he had an 83.3 adjusted completion rate (per PFF), there is no way anyone has less faith in Underwood than they did in the preseason.

Both teams will rely on their defenses and attempt to run the football, in which Michigan should have the edge. Yes, Mateer is more proven than Underwood, but he comes with his own set of questions. In his two games against Power Four opponents last year, he was 26 of 53 passing with two TDs to two INTs. He will have better players around him, true, but also, Michigan’s defense is better than Texas Tech’s (95th in defensive SP+) or Washington’s (36th in defensive SP+) was in 2024.

Bottom line. The offseason line of Oklahoma -2.5 was accurate. This will likely be a close, low-ish scoring affair, so give me those points! This would be a B1G or B1GGER Bet if I weren’t putting my money on a true freshman making a very tough first road start.

Boston College +4 MICHIGAN STATE (BetMGM)

This is one of several games where I like the underdog to keep it close, in what could be a lower-scoring game. And we have the better team in this matchup.

We were on Michigan State’s defense last week, and while they came through for us, they graded out very poorly in pass coverage and pass rush. The latter was a significant weakness in 2024, one they didn’t adequately address, and the biggest reason we took MSU’s season win total UNDER. With time in the pocket to throw the football, expect Boston College to be able to move down the field through the air on the Spartans.

I like the matchup even better for BC when State has the ball. Offensively, Sparty lacks explosiveness and managed just 23 points against Western Michigan. Going back to last year, MSU QB Aidan Chiles has thrown just two interceptions in his past six games. But here’s the rub. The Spartans are averaging 17.3 points in those six outings, with a high of 24 points against Purdue, which was the fewest points the Boilermakers allowed in 11 FBS games in 2024. He still makes mistakes, just not as many, while the offense lacks big-play upside.

Grab the points with BC. Don’t if you’re feeling frisky and take the Eagles on the moneyline.

UNLV-UCLA OVER 54.5 (Fanatics)

Through two games, UNLV has scored 76 points and put up 936 yards. New headman Dan Mullen knows how to coach them up on the offensive side of the ball.

Former Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea (77.3%, 10.1 YPP, 3 TDs, 116 yards rushing) is off to an excellent start, and Jai’den Thomas (212 yards, 11.2 YPC) is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the rock.

Last season’s UCLA defense would have given them a real test, but after losing ten starters, it won’t be as much of a challenge in 2025. They gave up 42 points last week and couldn’t contain Utah’s dual-threat quarterback, which doesn’t bode well for the Bruins this week.

UCLA did nothing well in their opener, which is why we were tempted to take the points with the Rebels, but the Bruins have some real offensive talent in QB Nico Iamaleava and RB Jaivian Thomas. Playing a physical Utes team in Week 1 wasn’t ideal.

As good as UNLV has been on offense, they’ve been nearly as bad on defense, where they’ve allowed 52 points and a whopping 887 yards to Idaho State and Sam Houston. This is the week for Nico and company to eat! If not now, then when?

Points should be plenty on Saturday night. Considering all the team total unders in our future, here’s a fun one to watch!

OREGON OVER 41.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Have you been paying attention to what Mike Gundy and Dan Lanning were saying this week?

“They spend a lot of money, but they’re a good team,” Gundy said. “There’s no doubt about it. Our players, we talked about it today before practice, they’re excited about going out there and playing… I think Oregon spent close to $40 million last year alone. That was just one year. Now, I might be off a few million."

Nothing Gundy said was inaccurate, but it definitely came off as whiny. Especially coming from a guy whose school used to have a monster donor, which he leveraged into bigger contracts for himself. As for Lanning. It doesn’t take much for him to get his feathers ruffled.

“If you want to be a top ten in college football, you’d better be invested in winning. We spend to win. Some people save to have an excuse for why they don’t,” Lanning responded.

“Ultimately, he’s a great coach and they’ve done an unbelievable job, but I want to be a team that is competing at the highest level, and we’re really fortunate to be in that situation,” Lanning continued. “I can’t speak to their situation. I have no idea what they’ve got in their pockets over there. I’m sure UT-Martin maybe didn’t have as much as them last week and they played. So, we’ll let it play out.”

Shots fired! I, for one, am very interested to see how this plays out!

Oregon might have a top ten offense and defense, but the bigger edge on Saturday is when they have the ball. If the Ducks score “only” 41 points, they’d have to hold Oklahoma State to 13 points just to push the 28-point spread. Maybe they win 40-10, but it’s more likely that the Ducks score at least 42 points (and don’t cover) than beat the Cowboys by more than four touchdowns (without scoring 42+), so we’re on the team total. OSU’s offense isn’t that bad.

We like what we saw from Dante Moore (18 of 23, 213 yards, 3 TDs) against Montana State and expect stud transfer Makhi Hughes to have a breakout game after getting just one carry last week.

After having one of the worst defenses in college football last season, the Cowboys had to rebuild their entire unit. New DC Todd Grantham, who likes to blitz heavily, is very hit or miss. He’s excellent when he has the horses. He does not have the horses to keep up with these Ducks.

USC OVER 44.5 (-125 DraftKings)

We are still kicking ourselves for not taking the Trojans last week, and once upon a time, that would have deterred me from backing USC this week. But, as the saying goes, Scared money, don’t make money! You can’t just write those words; you have to live by them.

They probably won’t score 73 points again, but they could. QB Jayden Maiava looks more comfortable in Year 2 in Lincoln Riley’s offense, which shouldn’t surprise anyone because that always happens.

What makes us feel comfortable in expecting another 50-burger (at least) from the Men of Troy is their offensive depth and desire to flex it, starting with backup QB Husan Longstreet. The highly touted freshman was 9 of 9 last week, and as QB2, Riley wants to get him experience. In addition, USC had four ball carriers have a run of at least 17 yards, and seven different Trojans had a catch of 15-plus yards. This unit is explosive and exciting.

On the flip side, Georgia Southern is the worst defense remaining on USC’s schedule, and while they open Big Ten play next week, it’s at Purdue. They’re not looking ahead.

IOWA STATE UNDER 23.5 (-120 DraftKings)

Let’s look at the history of the Cy-Hawk Trophy Game. Five of the last six games in this rivalry have gone under 40 points, with an average total of 30.7 points over that span (including a 44-point total in 2021). Iowa State has scored less than 21 points against Iowa in all six of those matchups.

History matters in this rivalry because this is the ninth meeting between these head coaches. Iowa’s Phil Parker is in his 26th season with the program (14th at DC), and both Iowa State coordinators are in their tenth seasons with the Big 12 school. There’s continuity and styles make fights.

With 1,000-yard receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel off to the NFL, the Cyclones aren’t nearly as explosive as they were a year ago. They’ve been very Iowa-esque as their two leading pass catchers through two games are their tight ends.

According to PFF, ISU has implemented 12 personnel on 72.9 percent of their snaps. While Iowa’s cornerbacks might be a potential weakness for the defense, they are very comfortable playing against double-tights.

With a strong defensive line, the Hawkeyes should win the line of scrimmage, limit ISU’s ground game, and get to their quarterback. Through two games, the Cyclones are 74th in yards per carry (4.01) and have allowed pressures on nearly half their passes despite playing an FCS foe last week.

I’m no stranger to backing Phil Parker. I’m on the Hawkeyes (see below), which means backing their defense is an automatic for me (otherwise, why am I even betting on Iowa?).

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B1G BET (1 UNIT): Last Week: 2-1 | Season: 2-1 (+ 1 UNIT)

Iowa +3.5 IOWA STATE (BetMGM)

Not only are most Cy-Hawk Trophy Games low scoring, but they are typically close. Nine of the last 13 matchups have been decided by one score, including seven by three points or less. It’s generally close—even more so when Iowa State wins. The last time the Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes by more than a field goal? You have to go back 20 years to 2005.

In Iowa’s past 13 losses against non-top-five teams (I’m taking out Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State blowouts), they’ve lost by more than three points just five times since 2020. The Hawkeyes don’t get blown out. Which is in part because they’ve been good, but it’s also because of their style of football. They play good-to-great defense, win the special teams battle, and run the football (effective or not). Punting is not a dirty word in Iowa City.

What I really like about this year’s Hawkeyes is their strong offensive line, which we saw them flex last week, albeit against Albany, even with Kamari Moulton out. Four different Hawkeyes had seven-plus carries for at least 39 yards, led by Xavier Williams, who rumbled for 122 yards on 11 carries. The jury is still out on transfer QB Mark Gronowski, but he brings added mobility to the position, and really, how could he be any worse?

Iowa has a significant edge in special teams—ranked tenth by SP+ vs. 79th for ISU—which should help them keep this one close or potentially pull off the upset.

PENN STATE -41.5 Florida International (BetMGM)

I’m going back to the well and laying 40-plus with the Nittany Lions. In Week 1, they were sloppy at times offensively and settled for too many field goals in the red zone (four), and were still covering at the two-minute mark when James Franklin decided to go for it on fourth down at midfield. They didn’t convert, which set up a backdoor cover for Nevada, which scored its only touchdown with 25 seconds remaining.

As you can imagine, your boy wasn’t too happy. Neither was Frankin. That was about as upset as you’ll see a coach after a 46-11 win. Look for Penn State to play a cleaner game and finish strong against FIU.

Including last week, PSU has won its past four games when favored by over 40 points by an average score of 57-4.5 (since 2023).

INDIANA -35.5 Kennesaw State (DraftKings)

If James Franklin was unhappy with how his team finished, Curt Cignetti was absolutely livid following Indiana’s mistake-filled 27-14 opening win. The headman said he “expected a 45-, 52-7 type game.” So did we coach. So did we.

By Cignetti’s count, they left about 35 points on the field, which sounds right to me. Indiana was twice stopped on fourth and goal, and twice settled for field goals after cracking the Old Dominion 10-yard line. There was also a dropped walk-in 55-yard TD on a third down. The defense was dominant on 43 of 45 plays, but allowed TD runs of 75 yards (first play from scrimmage) and 78 yards by ODU’s quarterback, which accounted for nearly half of their total. This is a defensive scheme that excels at limiting explosives. That will be corrected.

If Cigs didn’t have his team’s attention going into Week 1, he surely does now!

The defense has a very good chance of pitching a shutout against a Kennesaw State offense that might be the worst in the FBS, while quarterback Fernando Mendoza and IU’s red zone offense should be crisper.

This one will be an absolute romp. I expect a 52-7 type game, to quote a certain coach.