NCAAF · 1 hour ago

ESPN Ranks the 23 Teams Most Likely to Win the College Football Championship Going Into Week 11

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

Have Your Say! Which Team has the Best Chance to Win the Natty?
Debate the FPI Championship Probability Numbers

We’ve officially audited ESPN's FPI national title frontrunners, but college football is all about the debate!

The Big Ten vs. SEC: Do you agree with two-loss teams Alabama and Texas having a higher title chance than defending champs Indiana?

The Notre Dame Factor: Is Notre Dame's 92.1% playoff entry probability legit, or will their independent path catch up to them in the bracket?

The Dark Horse: Which team outside the top five, like Wake Forest, LSU, or Utah, is most likely to crash the national championship game?

Drop your hot takes, thoughts, and National Championship picks in the comments!
ESPN's Most Likely Teams to Win the National Championship
ESPN's FPI Names the Teams Most Likely to Win the National Title

With three weeks left in the college football regular season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) supercomputer has simulated the rest of the season. Its goal? Math out exactly who holds the best odds of raising the national championship trophy in January.

Bypassing brand reputations and subjective poll votes, the FPI bases its mathematical projections strictly on roster efficiency, talent density, and strength of schedule. To navigate the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff gauntlet and finish as the last squad standing, these teams have separated themselves from the rest of the nation.

These programs have the highest mathematical odds of bringing home national championship hardware in 2026.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (Last Week: 3)
Georgia Team Profile
- Head Coach: Kirby Smart (11th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Mike Bobo
- Defensive Coordinator: Glenn Schumann
- Location: Athens, Georgia
Georgia's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 2
- Projected Record: 11.2-1.7
- Playoff Probability: 95.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 52.2%
- Win-Out Probability: 40.5%
- Make the CFP: 95.8%
- Make National Championship Game: 34.0%
- Win the National Championship: 19.4%
2. Miami Hurricanes (Last Week: 1)
Miami Hurricanes Team Profile
- Head Coach: Mario Cristobal (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Shannon Dawson
- Defensive Coordinator: Corey Hetherman
- Location: Coral Gables-Miami , Florida
Miami's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 4
- Projected Record: 11.5-1.5
- Playoff Probability: 97.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 74.1%
- Win-Out Probability: 60.4%
- Make the CFP: 97.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 31.8%
- Win the National Championship: 17.3%
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Last Week: 2)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team Profile
- Head Coach: Marcus Freeman (4th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Mike Denbrock
- Defensive Coordinator: Chris Ash
- Location: Notre Dame, Indiana
Notre Dame Fighting Irish's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 1
- Projected Record: 10.8-1.2
- Playoff Probability: 92.0%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 82.8%
- Make the CFP: 92.0%
- Make National Championship Game: 30.1%
- Win the National Championship: 17.3%
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (Last Week: 6)
Alabama Team Profile
- Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Mike Shanahan
- Defensive Coordinator: Bryant Haines
- Location: Bloomington, Indiana
Alabama Crimson Tide's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 3
- Projected Record: 10.2-2.4
- Playoff Probability: 92.5%
- Win Conference Probability: 32.7%
- Win-Out Probability: 57.0%
- Make the CFP: 92.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 27.2%
- Win the National Championship: 14.7%
5. Texas Longhorns (Last Week: 7)
Texas Longhorns Team Profile
- Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (6th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Kyle Flood
- Defensive Coordinator: Will Muschamp
- Location: Austin, Texas
Texas's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 6
- Projected Record: 9.3-2.9
- Playoff Probability: 74.5%
- Win Conference Probability: 9.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 22.3%
- Make the CFP: 74.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 15.5%
- Win the National Championship: 7.3%
6. Indiana Hoosiers (Last Week: 5)
Indiana Hoosiers Team Profile
- Head Coach: Curt Cignetti (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Mike Shanahan
- Defensive Coordinator: Bryant Haines
Indiana's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 8
- Projected Record: 10.9-1.7
- Playoff Probability: 80.7%
- Win Conference Probability: 43.8%
- Win-Out Probability: 39.0%
- Make the CFP: 80.7%
- Make National Championship Game: 14.1%
- Win the National Championship: 6.0%
7. Utah Utes (Last Week: 10)
Utah Team Profile
- Head Coach: Morgan Scalley (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Kevin McGiven
- Defensive Coordinator: Colton Swan
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Utah's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 9-0
- FPI Rank: 10
- Projected Record: 11.8-1.1
- Playoff Probability: 89.5%
- Win Conference Probability: 55.7%
- Win-Out Probability: 25.5%
- Make the CFP: 89.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 12.0%
- Win the National Championship: 4.4%
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (Last Week: 4)
Ohio State Buckeyes Team Profile
- Head Coach: Ryan Day (8th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Arthur Smith
- Defensive Coordinator: Matt Patricia
- Location: Columbus, Ohio
Ohio State's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 6-3
- FPI Rank: 5
- Projected Record: 8.6-3.6
- Playoff Probability: 41.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 13.9%
- Win-Out Probability: 50.4%
- Make the CFP: 41.8%
- Make National Championship Game: 7.4%
- Win the National Championship: 3.9%
9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Last Week: 11)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Team Profile
- Head Coach: Jake Dickert (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Rob Ezell
- Defensive Coordinator: Scottie Hazelton
- Location: Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Wake Forest's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 13
- Projected Record: 10.4-2.3
- Playoff Probability: 52.9%
- Win Conference Probability: 20.7%
- Win-Out Probability: 11.1%
- Make the CFP: 52.9%
- Make National Championship Game: 4.7%
- Win the National Championship: 1.6%
10. LSU Tigers (Last Week: 8)
LSU Tigers Team Profile
- Head Coach: Lane Kiffin (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Weis Jr.
- Defensive Coordinator: Blake Baker
- Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
LSU's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 6-3
- FPI Rank: 7
- Projected Record: 8.0-4.0
- Playoff Probability: 21.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.2%
- Win-Out Probability: 26.1%
- Make the CFP: 21.8%
- Make National Championship Game: 3.0%
- Win the National Championship: 1.5%
11. Tennessee Volunteers (Last Week: 16)
Tennessee Team Profile
- Head Coach: Josh Heupel (6th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Joey Halzle
- Defensive Coordinator: Jim Knowles
- Location: Knoxville, Tennessee
Tennessee's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 11
- Projected Record: 9.0-3.2
- Playoff Probability: 35.5%
- Win Conference Probability: 4.2%
- Win-Out Probability: 13.0%
- Make the CFP: 35.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 3.2%
- Win the National Championship: 1.2%
12. Ole Miss Rebels (Last Week: 9)
Ole Miss Rebels Team Profile
- Head Coach: Pete Golding (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: John David Baker
- Defensive Coordinator: Bryan Brown
Ole Miss's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 6-3
- FPI Rank: 12
- Projected Record: 8.4-3.6
- Playoff Probability: 37.3%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.4%
- Win-Out Probability: 46.5%
- Make the CFP: 37.3%
- Make National Championship Game: 2.6%
- Win the National Championship: 0.9%
13. Oregon Ducks (Last Week: 19)
Oregon Ducks Team Profile
- Head Coach: Dan Lanning (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Mitch Dahlen
- Defensive Coordinator: Mike MacIntyre
- 2026 Record: 4-2 (2-1)
- Location: Eugene, Oregon
- AP Top 25 Ranking: NR
Oregon's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 6-3
- FPI Rank: 9
- Projected Record: 8.7-3.6
- Playoff Probability: 24.9%
- Win Conference Probability: 16.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 50.5%
- Make the CFP: 24.9%
- Make National Championship Game: 2.0%
- Win the National Championship: 0.8%
14. (tied) UCLA Bruins (Last Week: 15)
UCLA Bruins Team Profile
- Head Coach: Bob Chesney (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Dean Kennedy
- Defensive Coordinator: Colin Hitschler
- Location: Pasadena, California
UCLA's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 9-0
- FPI Rank: 27
- Projected Record: 10.9-1.8
- Playoff Probability: 60.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 19.2%
- Win-Out Probability: 5.2%
- Make the CFP: 60.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 2.9%
- Win the National Championship: 0.8%
14. (tied) Texas Tech Red Raiders (Last Week: 12)
Texas Tech Red Raiders Team Profile
- Head Coach: Joey McGuire (4th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Mack Leftwich
- Defensive Coordinator: Shiel Wood
- Location: Lubbock, Texas
Texas Tech's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 14
- Projected Record: 10.0-2.4
- Playoff Probability: 37.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 18.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 9.6%
- Make the CFP: 37.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 2.1%
- Win the National Championship: 0.7%
16. BYU Cougars (Last Week: 13)
BYU Cougars Team Profile
- Head Coach: Kalani Sitake (11th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Aaron Roderick
- Defensive Coordinator: Kelly Poppinga
- Location: Provo, Utah
BYU's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 17
- Projected Record: 9.3-2.9
- Playoff Probability: 34.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 8.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 30.7%
- Make the CFP: 34.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 1.6%
- Win the National Championship: 0.5%
17. (tied) Boise State Broncos (Last Week: 18)
Boise State Team Profile
- Head Coach: Spencer Danielson (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Nate Potter
- Defensive Coordinator: Erik Chinander
- Location: Boise, Idaho
Boise State's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- FPI Rank: 33
- Projected Record: 11.3-1.7
- Playoff Probability: 63.7%
- Win Conference Probability: 74.8%
- Win-Out Probability: 46.2%
- Make the CFP: 63.7%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.9%
- Win the National Championship: 0.2%
17. (tied) Kentucky Wildcats (Last Week: 13)
Kentucky Team Profile
- Head Coach: Will Stein (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Joe Sloan
- Defensive Coordinator: Jay Bateman
- Conference: SEC
Kentucky's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 35
- Projected Record: 8.4-3.7
- Playoff Probability: 36.5%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.1%
- Win-Out Probability: 6.8%
- Make the CFP: 36.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 1.3%
- Win the National Championship: 0.3%
17. (tied) Iowa Hawkeyes (Last Week: 23)
Iowa Hawkeyes Team Profile
- Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (27th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Tim Lester
- Defensive Coordinator: Phil Parker
- Location: Iowa City, Iowa
- 2026 Record: 5-1 (2-1)
- AP Top 25 Ranking: No. 15
Iowa's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 18
- Projected Record: 9.1-2.9
- Playoff Probability: 20.9%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.6%
- Win-Out Probability: 31.5%
- Make the CFP: 20.9%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.9%
- Win the National Championship: 0.3%
20. (tied) USC Trojans (Last Week: 17)
USC Trojans Team Profile
- Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Luke Huard
- Defensive Coordinator: Gary Patterson
- Location: Los Angeles, California
USC's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 16
- Projected Record: 8.7-3.4
- Playoff Probability: 15.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 3.9%
- Win-Out Probability: 5.0%
- Make the CFP: 15.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.8%
- Win the National Championship: 0.2%
20. (tied) Houston Cougars (Last Week: 19)
Houston Team Profile
- Head Coach: Willie Fritz (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Slade Nagle
- Defensive Coordinator: Austin Armstrong
- Location: Houston, Texas
Houston's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 20
- Projected Record: 9.3-2.9
- Playoff Probability: 20.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 8.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 26.9%
- Make the CFP: 20.8%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.7%
- Win the National Championship: 0.2%
22. (tied) Arizona Wildcats (Last Week: 23)
Arizona Team Profile
- Head Coach: Brent Brennan (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Marcus Arroyo
- Defensive Coordinator: Brian Ward
Arizona's ESPN FPI Profile
- 2026 Record: 7-2
- FPI Rank: 26
- Projected Record: 9.0-3.1
- Playoff Probability: 9.4%
- Win Conference Probability: 4.3%
- Win-Out Probability: 18.0%
- Make the CFP: 9.4%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.3%
- Win the National Championship: 0.1%
Have Your Say! Which Team has the Best Chance to Win the Natty?
Debate the FPI Championship Probability Numbers

We’ve officially audited ESPN's FPI national title frontrunners, but college football is all about the debate!

The Big Ten vs. SEC: Do you agree with two-loss teams Alabama and Texas having a higher title chance than defending champs Indiana?

The Notre Dame Factor: Is Notre Dame's 92.1% playoff entry probability legit, or will their independent path catch up to them in the bracket?

The Dark Horse: Which team outside the top five, like Wake Forest, LSU, or Utah, is most likely to crash the national championship game?

Drop your hot takes, thoughts, and National Championship picks in the comments!
ESPN's Most Likely Teams to Win the National Championship
ESPN's FPI Names the Teams Most Likely to Win the National Title

With three weeks left in the college football regular season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) supercomputer has simulated the rest of the season. Its goal? Math out exactly who holds the best odds of raising the national championship trophy in January.

Bypassing brand reputations and subjective poll votes, the FPI bases its mathematical projections strictly on roster efficiency, talent density, and strength of schedule. To navigate the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff gauntlet and finish as the last squad standing, these teams have separated themselves from the rest of the nation.

These programs have the highest mathematical odds of bringing home national championship hardware in 2026.