Indiana Hoosiers 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

Do you believe now? Many were in denial about what Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers did, despite their absolute dominance, until they became the first team to go 16-0 in college football. I have never seen a team more disciplined yet explosive on both sides of the ball than the 2026 Hoosiers.

Indiana Hoosiers Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 16-0 (9-0) | Big Ten Finish: 1st (National Champs)
• P. Poll: No. 6 | Coaches Poll: No. 6 | SP+: No. 5
• Head Coach: Curt Cignetti (3rd Year) | Record: 146-37 | IU Record: 27-2
• Offensive Coordinator: Mike Shanahan (3rd Year)
• Defensive Coordinator: Bryant Haines (3rd Year)

The new era of college football with NIL and the transfer portal has allowed for quicker turnarounds than we’ve ever seen before. But with the new opportunities come new challenges. Can Indiana sustain their success?

Indiana Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +105 | UNDER 10.5 -125
• Conference Wins: OVER 7.5 -110 | UNDER 7.5 -110
• National Championship Odds: +900 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES -350 | NO +255
• B1G Championship Odds: +260 | To Reach B1GCG: -120

Vegas believes! Only Notre Dame (-800) and Ohio State (-360) are considered bigger shoe-ins to make the College Football Playoff, while Indiana sits at sixth in the pecking order to repeat as National Champs. That’s right. The Hoosiers are considered a more likely bet to win the Natty than Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, Michigan, Penn State, and many other big brands.

IU is one of four programs that aren’t at least +160 to reach 11 regular-season wins. When you cover 65.5 percent of your games over two years, you earn the respect of the sportsbooks.

Indiana Preview: Why You Should Buy

• No Significant Holes on the Roster
• Proven Transfers at QB, RB, WR, OG, CB

Wherever the Hoosiers had a hole (except for tight end), Cignetti went out and plugged it with experienced production. The Hoosiers lost their QB, leading two running backs, and two receivers, and have filled those spots with the addition of top transfers QB Josh Hoover, RB Turbo Richard, and WR Nick Marsh, with RB Khobie Martin and WR Charlie Becker ready for bigger roles. Three of five starters return along the O-line, and the addition of Wisconsin OG Joe Brunner means they won’t miss a beat upfront.

Defensively, their biggest loss was CB D’Angelo Ponds, so they added All-Big Ten coverman A.J. Harris from Penn State. Indiana returns 139 starts and added another 99 starts via the portal (per ESPN’s SP+), making them one of the most experienced teams in the country. Don’t believe me? Phil Steele has IU’s QB, WR, OL, DL, LB, DB, and special teams all among the top 12 units in the country. Not even Ohio State or Oregon can say that.

Indiana Preview: Why You Should Sell

• Depth Will Take a Step Back

While the Hoosiers starters should be as good as last season’s group (outside of QB and TE), all of the losses to the NFL have certainly hurt IU’s elite depth. Indiana lost 23 players who graduated, not including No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, who declared early.

They had elite depth with Becker as their No. 3 receiver behind two starters who had 13-plus TD receptions and Martin as their No. 3 running back behind a pair of 1,000-yard rushers. Linebacker Isaiah Jones (78 tackles, 15,5 TFLs, 7 sacks) started less than half their games. I probably shouldn’t doubt Cigs, but they’re unlikely to be as deep as last season’s squad was. We should note that their EDGE depth could get a big boost if Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt are cleared to play.

Indiana Breakout Player: Byron Baldwin

• Highest-Ranked 2025 Recruit
• True Freshman Made Tackles in Every Playoff Game

Sophomore Byron Baldwin is one of the few projected starters who is stepping into a new role with zero career starts going into 2026. Not a complete unknown, Baldwin was the highest-rated player in Indiana’s 2025 recruiting class—their lone four-star recruit per On3. He didn’t see the field until Week 8 due to an injury but made an impression on special teams. With the size and speed needed, Baldwin looks ready to step into the versatile rover/nickel safety position.

Indiana X-Factor: Josh Hoover

• 5th-Year Senior
• Started Two-Plus Seasons at TCU
• Career Stats: 9,629 Yards, 65.2%, 8.1 YPA, 71 TDs, 33 INTs

How good will Josh Hoover be? Can he cut down on the turnovers? He’s more accomplished than Fernando Mendoza was coming into 2025. However, to expect him to match the Heisman Trophy winner would be unfair. He doesn’t possess the same size or rushing acumen that helped make Mendoza the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

How he protects the football will be a key factor. Indiana lost nine turnovers in Cignetti’s first season and just eight in 16 games in 2025. Hoover turned the ball over 15 times last season alone and has 33 career INTs (nine fumbles). He’s not going to be Mendoza. But can he develop into a championship-caliber quarterback? If so, the rest of the pieces are in place.

Indiana Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 31
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 24

With Ohio State, USC, Michigan, and Washington on the docket, this is the toughest schedule Cignetti’s Hoosiers have faced in Bloomington. That’s four preseason-ranked teams, including a pair of challenging road trips: at Michigan, where the Hoosiers haven’t won since 1967, the week after they face the Buckeyes, and at Washington. You should know by now about the troubles traditional B1G teams have had going west.

The play all four within a five-game span, with Minnesota sandwiched in between, and their back-to-back against Big Ten Blue Bloods OSU and Michigan, is preceded by a trip to Nebraska. After an easy start, IU will likely play its six toughest opponents in a row. They do get OSU and USC at home, with no game versus Oregon, so their schedule could be tougher and is average by Big Ten standards.

Indiana Best Bet, Long Shot, & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

• Win Total: OVER 10.5 Wins (+105 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: OVER 10.5 Wins (+110 @ BetMGM)
• Long Shot: OVER 11.5 Wins (+400 @ DraftKings)

The schedule is challenging, and I’m not sold on Josh Hoover being the answer, but who am I to question Curt Cignetti? The company line is that Hoover will have a better offensive line, a more consistent running game, and a stouter defense than he had at TCU, which is all true.

The Hoosiers opened as a one-point underdog against Ohio State on South Point, but they are likely to be favored in every other game—IU opened as a five-point favorite at Michigan, their toughest road game of the season. They should be 6-0 by the time the Buckeyes come to Bloomington, so don’t be surprised if that line flips. The only two losses Cignetti has suffered at Indiana were as road underdogs (at Ohio State and at Notre Dame in 2024). The man wins—Google him. Trust in Cigs. How can you bet against him?

Now, if you must, you will lose, but lose less by going UNDER 7.5 conference wins at -110.