Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl Prediction | CFP Semifinals Best Bets

They may be the lower seeds in the College Football Playoff bracket, but most people expected this. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions take to the field in Thursday’s Orange Bowl for a chance to play in the National Championship Game. The betting action has been relatively stable since betting markets opened. Notre Dame was initially priced as -1.5 chalk versus Penn State. Since then, they’ve been bought up to -2 or -2.5 at most shops before that line was met with resistance. Since then, the Irish have returned to -1.5 as we approach kick-off. As implied by the betting price and movement, we expect this to be a tightly contested semifinal matchup premised on stout defensive play.

Where to Watch Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl

• Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, FL)
• Time: Thursday, January 9 at 7:00 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN
• Spread: Notre Dame -1.5 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -122 | Total: 45.5

Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl Best Bet ATS: Notre Dame -1.5

No team has been better at covering spreads this season than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Sugar Bowl winners are 12-2 against the spread this season, covering the number in ten straight games. Granted, the knock against Notre Dame is their inferior schedule. However, the Fighting Irish have maintained proficiency through two crucial playoff matchups. First, they defeated the Indiana Hoosiers as -6.5 chalk, following up with another victory as -1 favorites against the second-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. Moreover, playing as underdogs hasn’t been Penn State’s strength this season. The Nittany Lions went 0-2 as dogs, losing rather convincingly to the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks. We predict both trends persist into the CFP semifinals, with Notre Dame emerging victorious as -1.5 favorites.

Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl Best Bet Total: Under 45.5

Considering both teams’ defensive pedigrees, this is a somewhat inflated total. The Irish ranked second in scoring defense, limiting opponents to just 13.6 points per game this season. Even against the top-tier teams in the country, they’ve maintained that excellent standard of play. Notre Dame gave up 17 points to the Hoosiers in the opening round, following that up with a ten-point effort against the Bulldogs in the quarterfinals. Similarly, Penn State’s success this season was contingent on robust defensive performances. They rank seventh in scoring defense and sixth in total defense, illustrating their elite defensive play while playing against some of the top teams in the country. Predictably, those metrics are reflected in the outcomes for both programs. The Nittany Lions have stayed under the total in nine of 15 this season. Similarly, Notre Dame has remained below the total in both playoff games and three of their past five. The defense will be the priority again in the Orange Bowl, with this one expected to come below 45.5 points.

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Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl Best Player Props

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Mitchell Evans Over 27.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown Scorer +370

Much has been made of Tyler Warren’s importance to Penn State’s offense, but we can’t look past the value in Mitchell Evans’s props ahead of Thursday’s tilt. Notre Dame’s tight end ranks second on the team in receptions and targets this season and is tied for the team lead with three receiving touchdowns. While he’s been relatively quiet in the postseason, accumulating 39 yards on five catches, we’re predicting a bounce-back effort against Penn State. The senior has been targeted 14 times over the past three games, yielding a 71.4% catch rate. Further, the Nittany Lions have struggled to contain opposing tight ends. In last week’s Fiesta Bowl, they gave up 96 receiving yards on four receptions to Matt Lauter of the Boise State Broncos. Likewise, Oregon Ducks tight end Terrance Ferguson totaled 30 yards on three catches just two games prior. Additionally, both players found the endzone against the Nittany Lions. We’re betting those trends persist into the Orange Bowl, with Evans cashing as an anytime touchdown scorer and recording more than 27.5 receiving yards.

Notre Dame vs Penn State Orange Bowl Player Opt-Outs

Notre Dame: Aiden Gobaira, EDGE (transfer portal), Tyson Ford, DL (transfer portal), Jaden Mickey, CB (transfer portal)

Penn State: Jason Estrella, WR (transfer portal), Beau Pribula, QB (transfer portal), Jerry Cross, TE (transfer portal), T.A. Cunningham, DL (transfer portal), Feyisayo Oluleye, WR (transfer portal)

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