Penn State vs Boise State Fiesta Bowl | College Football Picks, Best Bets

A jam-packed New Year’s Eve day concludes with the marquee event as the College Football Playoff quarterfinals get underway in the desert. The sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions take on the third-seeded Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl! Penn State enters this contest after a convincing win over the SMU Mustangs, although it is fair to say their offense was far from good in the blowout win. Boise State won the Mountain West Conference Championship and received some help to propel them to the No. 3 seed and a bye into this game. Fully rested and as healthy as any team can be at this point of the season, they are double-digit underdogs in Glendale. Boise State does not have the talent of Penn State, but the Broncos took Oregon to the wire earlier this season. Boise State might get outclassed, but they probably won’t be shaken by the moment like SMU.

Will the Broncos pull off another shocker in the Fiesta Bowl, or will the favored Nittany Lions take advantage of their kind draw and coast to the semifinals? 

We’ve covered you with our favorite plays from Tuesday’s College Football Playoff showdown.

Boise State vs Penn State Preview

• Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
• Time: Tuesday, December 31, at 7:30 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN
• Spread: Penn State (-11) | Moneyline: Penn State -450/Boise State +340 | Total: 52.5

Go Long with SportsGrid’s Free Weekly College Football Game Picks and College Football Player Prop Bets!

Boise State vs Penn State Opt-Outs

Boise State: Dionte Thornton, Safety (transfer portal); Malachi Nelson, QB (transfer portal)

Penn State: Beau Pribula, QB (transfer portal)

CFP Matchup Pages: Penn St. vs. Boise St. | Texas vs. Arizona St. | Ohio St. vs. Oregon | Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Boise State vs. Penn State Best Bets ATS: Boise State +11.5 and OVER 52.5

The SportsGrid model has loved Penn State all season, but it is riding with the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl, projecting Boise State to cover at +11.5, a five-star play. The model still predicts Penn State to win and advance to the semifinal but has them prevailing by eight points. In addition, the SportsGrid model has this game as a five-star play to go over the posted total of 52.5 points, with the game reaching the 54-point threshold. The model sees a 27 percent chance that Boise State wins this game outright but only places a two-star rating on the Broncos’ moneyline. 

Boise State vs. Penn State Best Alt Lines/Prop Bets

Player props have been unavailable for most bowl games, but they’re live for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups. We focus on a few exciting alternate lines and special prop bets for this quarterfinal clash. The model believes both offenses could succeed more than expected, and if the game script plays out that way, there will be a lot of value in some offensive-friendly props. The first would be to select both teams to score every quarter with odds of +750. The score could be either a field goal or a touchdown, and at +750, this bet is worth a look. The model has Boise State losing this game by only eight points, and if you are inclined to agree, betting the alternative point spread of Boise State at +9.5 with odds of +110 makes sense. Another interesting alternative would be the total; betting it up to 58.5 gives you odds of +152. That is good value if you feel the Penn State offense will be able to move at will on Boise State, and the Broncos can find success as they chase the game. 

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.