Heisman Odds and Notre Dame’s Path to Beating Miami

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Pushing The Odds with Matt Perrault

Notre Dame’s Path Against Miami and the Shifting Heisman Market

Malachi Toi could win the Heisman following the injury to Ohio State’s quarterback, which may prevent Jeremiah Smith from producing the same numbers. Toi would likely be a deserving winner.

Notre Dame has an opportunity against Miami if its secondary can slow down Tony and prevent him from having a huge game. The Irish can play ball-control football, run the ball, control the line of scrimmage and keep Miami’s offense from finding its rhythm. That could allow Notre Dame to win a low-scoring, physical game.

There may be more on the line for Notre Dame than Miami. A fall to 7-2 would create questions when comparing resumes at the end of the season. Boston College and SMU are at home, followed by a road game at Syracuse. The biggest concern would be the quality of the best win, which might be North Carolina or Wisconsin. A lopsided loss to Miami could make the situation even more difficult.

Darian Mensa is the Heisman favorite, while Tony is listed at 3-to-1. Mensa’s position as the quarterback of Miami’s offense gives him an advantage because the Heisman has historically favored quarterbacks. Only four wide receivers have won the award.

Malachi Tony is doing remarkable things and belongs in the conversation, but human voting brings a natural bias toward quarterbacks. Mensa’s price around plus-150 or plus-160 is not attractive, especially when he was previously available around 6-to-1.

Jeremiah Smith had previously been the clear favorite, but the injury to Julian changes his outlook. The Fahey kid did not look the part last weekend, although he could improve. At one book, Mensah is plus-160, Jeremiah Smith is plus-280 and Malachi Tony is 4-to-1. Jeremiah Smith is not an appealing bet at that price.

Trinidad Chambliss is another interesting option in the market. He did not play well against Texas, missing an opportunity for a Heisman moment on the road. He now gets Georgia at home, with Uga favored by only 3.5 points in what is expected to be a close game in Oxford.

If Ole Miss beats Georgia and Chambliss throws three touchdowns, runs for another and avoids an interception, he could return to the center of the Heisman conversation. However, voters may still focus on the big games in which he did not deliver. Chambliss is listed at 12-to-1, while CJ Carr is plus-750.