Notre Dame vs. Miami Odds Shift After Malachi Toney Injury

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Miami’s Malachi Toney Absence Pushes Notre Dame to a Seven-Point Favorite

Notre Dame enters its highly anticipated matchup against Miami as a seven-point favorite, despite being ranked 11th while the Hurricanes are ranked first. The line opened at 5.5 points before news broke that Miami’s Malachi Toney would miss the game and remain out until the postseason. It later reached 7.5 at some sportsbooks before settling primarily at seven.

Dave backed Miami at 7.5, pointing out that the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame last year and remain a strong team without Toney. Miami still has Darian Mensah, who has completed 81% of his passes with 25 touchdowns and one interception. The Hurricanes also have the country’s top scoring offense, the second-ranked total offense and the best rushing defense, allowing 61 yards per game.

That rushing defense could force Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr to attack through the air. Miami’s weakness is its pass defense, making the passing game Notre Dame’s clearest route to success. The Fighting Irish must also contain a Miami offense that features more weapons than Toney alone.

Dave questioned whether a college wide receiver should move the betting line enough to cross the key number of seven. While losing one of the country’s best players is significant, he believes getting 7.5 points with Miami offers value.

Notre Dame also faces considerable playoff pressure. After being placed 11th by the committee, the Fighting Irish may have little room for another loss. Dave argued that a defeat against Miami would leave Notre Dame without another opponent capable of moving it back up the standings, potentially allowing a three- or four-loss SEC team to finish ahead of it.

Although Dave considers Notre Dame a top-five team based on the eye test and believes it belongs in the playoff even with a loss, he expects the Fighting Irish to win without covering the seven-point spread.

The original 5.5-point line also sent a strong message: Oddsmakers viewed Notre Dame as the better team even before Toney’s absence became known. That assessment may reflect concerns about Miami after close games against Florida State and North Carolina. Miami faced a serious upset threat against Florida State and trailed North Carolina in the fourth quarter before winning by three, results that may have influenced the market’s confidence in Notre Dame.