Oregon vs. Ohio State: Playoff Stakes and Betting Pick

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Oregon-Ohio State Showdown Carries Playoff Stakes and Points to a Ground-Heavy Game

The Oregon Ducks have challenged the idea that everyone would make an expanded College Football Playoff. Oregon began the preseason ranked second but now sits at No. 23, a development that was difficult to see coming.

Even if Oregon loses to Ohio State, the Ducks could win their remaining three games, all of which they are favored in, and finish 8-4. In that scenario, Oregon could still finish inside the top 24 in the committee’s final rankings. However, an 8-4 Oregon team reaching the postseason would also make the case against further playoff expansion.

Oregon against Ohio State could have been the No. 1 team against the No. 2 team in the country based on preseason expectations. Instead, neither team is currently in the playoff field, making this an elimination game. Oregon can win the Big Ten championship by winning out, and Ohio State has the same opportunity.

Both teams have severely disappointed. Ohio State has the edge because its numbers are better on both sides of the ball, but laying 7.5 points is difficult to justify based on the Buckeyes’ recent offensive performance. With both teams dealing with quarterback issues, the under at 46.5 is appealing. This could be a typical Big Ten game that finishes around 23-20.

Ohio State remains a difficult team to bet. The Buckeyes are back home and favored by nearly the same number they laid at USC, where questionable late play-calling affected the outcome.

Dylan Raiola adds another layer of uncertainty. He was excellent against Northwestern, throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Against Ohio State, however, Oregon needs to run the ball to keep the game close. The Buckeyes’ secondary appears to be the stronger unit, so asking Raiola to drop back more than 30 times would be a risky approach.

Oregon’s team rushing total is set at 86.5 yards on FanDuel. The Ducks have surpassed that number in essentially every game, although Ohio State rarely allows it. The game script could be different with Fahey playing, and even if Ohio State wins, Oregon is unlikely to spend the entire fourth quarter throwing on every play. With the Ducks capable of producing explosive runs, the pick is for Oregon to approach 100 rushing yards and clear its team total.