Texas vs. Missouri: Playoff Stakes and Betting Picks

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Texas’ Playoff Case Faces a Major Test at Missouri

Texas’ matchup with Missouri highlights the argument for expanding the playoff beyond 12 teams. Texas has strong wins over Ohio State, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, giving the team a better collection of victories than several other contenders. However, Texas has also looked terrible in its losses, including an awful performance against Florida and two games in which it blew double-digit leads.

That inconsistency makes Texas difficult to evaluate. The defense has been outstanding, even while playing without potential top-five pick Colin Simmons, but the offense ranks 89th in the country. Arch Manning has delivered some good moments, yet Texas was dominated for three quarters against Ohio State before coming alive in the fourth quarter.

The demanding schedule strengthens Texas’ case. The Longhorns have faced Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Ohio State. At the same time, another loss would create a difficult playoff debate, even though losing at Missouri would not be a bad defeat. Missouri is a good team and could beat Texas in Columbia.

One betting angle for the game is Jamal Roberts under 94.5 rushing yards. Ahmad Hardy returned last week with only two carries, but Missouri’s head coach said the team would use more of a rotation this week. That could reduce Roberts from approximately 25 carries to closer to 15 against a Texas defense allowing fewer than three yards per rush.

Hardy’s return is also a reason to like Missouri. The Tigers can use their running backs to control the clock against Texas’ strong pass rush, while quarterback Austin Simmons gives the offense another way to produce. Missouri appears capable of scoring, while Texas’ inconsistent offense remains the larger concern.