Bills vs. Dolphins Week 2 Prediction | NFL Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with a crucial AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Neither team looked great at the outset of Week 1, needing to manufacture comeback wins in their season-openers. The Bills quickly found themselves in a 10-0 deficit against the Arizona Cardinals, storming back for the 34-28 win in Week 1. Likewise, Miami erased a 17-7 first-half shortfall versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, claiming a 20-17 victory. With two potent offenses, there is no margin for error for either team heading into the second Thursday Night Football game of the year.
Where to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5 | Moneyline: Dolphins -142 | Total: 48.5
Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet ATS: Dolphins -2.5
While neither team stood out in Week 1, the Dolphins’ win was grounded in more sustainable metrics. Buffalo put up 34 points on 352 total yards of offense, turning the tide on an early second-half fumble recovery. From there, the Bills needed just 21 yards to score a touchdown and tie the game, stealing all the momentum for the rest of the contest. Not surprisingly, Miami’s offense was much more potent in Week 1, accumulating 400 yards of total offense while outgaining the Jags by 133 yards in the win. Typically, we expect that yardage to yield more points, but it could foreshadow what comes next for the Dolphins. Last season, in games where the Fins put up at least 400 yards of offense, they averaged 40.7 points per game.
Moreover, they eclipsed the 31-point threshold in all but one of those contests. Given their penchant for making the most of their scoring opportunities, we expect improved scoring efficiency. As a result, the Dolphins should cover the modest -2.5 spread on Thursday night.
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Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet Total: Over 48.5
We’re taking a semi-correlated approach with the over, expecting improved scoring efficiency on the Dolphins’ side to help this one get over the total. As mentioned, Miami’s scoring surpasses what we saw from them in Week 1. When they take yards in bunches, it typically results in higher-scoring affairs. Further, the Dolphins were one of the highest-scoring home teams in the NFL last season. They averaged 31.6 points per game, which is second-most in the league while putting up 421.3 yards on offense. There’s an inverse relationship with Buffalo’s ability to contain opponents as the visitors. The Bills gave up 336.2 yards per game on the road, a steep departure from the 288.6 they allowed at home. Nevertheless, we can trust Josh Allen to get the Bills marching down the field, doing enough to get this contest over the 48.5 total.
Bills vs. Dolphins Best Player Props
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer +225
Dalton Kincaid was held in check in Week 1’s victory over the Arizona Cardinals, but he’s earned a more substantive role on offense that should be exploited in weeks to come. The second-year tight end ranked second on the team in targets last year, getting thrown to 91 times in 16 games (11 starts). He hauled in 73 catches for a Pro Bowl-worthy 80.2% catch rate. Allen looked his tight ends’ way frequently in the red zone, targetting Kincaid and Dawson Knox a combined 17 times throughout the season. With Kincaid supplanting Knox on the depth chart, he’s in for the lion’s share of looks throughout the 2024 campaign. Kincaid had only two passes thrown his way in Week 1, but we expect him to take on a more robust role moving forward. Miami tends to let tight ends slip in coverage, amplifying Kincaid’s outlook on Thursday Night Football. Given his expected workload in the red zone, we like his chances to find the end zone against the Dolphins, backing Kincaid as an anytime touchdown scorer at +225.
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