Divisional Playoffs Saturday Best Bets | NFL 2025 Playoff Picks Today

The 2024 NFL regular season has ended after 18 exciting weeks. Only four rounds separated the 14 remaining teams from a Super Bowl Championship. That march continues with the Divisional Round and the remaining eight teams.

We’ve got you covered for betting purposes, highlighting our favorite wagers for this week’s NFL action.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Texans vs Chiefs Matchup Page
Spread: Texans +8.5 (-112) | Chiefs -8.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Texans +360 | Chiefs -460
Total: OVER 41.5 (-110) | UNDER 41.5 (-110)

Another dominant regular season gave the Kansas City Chiefs a first-round playoff bye. While they were sitting back, licking their wounds from a hard-fought season, the Houston Texans were busy getting past the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Houston will look to parlay that success into a shocking playoff upset of the two-time defending Super Bowl Champions. 

Unfortunately, too many factors are working against the Texans in this one. Their offense has looked utterly abysmal lately. Their 429-yard effort in the first round was just the second time they’ve cracked 329 yards since Week 11. Their limited passing production is the most concerning aspect of that offensive attack. The Texans have been held below 167 passing yards in three of their last five, and they’ll have to rely on C.J. Stroud, as they’ll likely be playing from behind since the outset. 

The Chiefs had the luxury of resting their starters in Week 18, meaning they will be operating at peak capacity in the Divisional Round. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 580 yards and four touchdowns over his last two starts, which has been complemented by a rejuvenated ground game. Still, KC continues to do its best work on the defensive side of the ball.

Bettors want to believe the Texans can keep things close, but the data supports otherwise. We’re taking a firm stance on the Chiefs running away with this one.

NFL Best Bet: Chiefs -8.5 -108

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Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

Commanders vs Lions Matchup Page
Spread: Commanders +8.5 (-105) | Lions -8.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Commanders +390 | Lions -510
Total: OVER 55.5 (-108) | UNDER 55.5 (-112)

Surprisingly, the Washington Commanders relied on their defense to escape their Wild Card matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, they won’t be able to replicate that success against the high-flying Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell has his team playing with an unforgiving offensive edge, and he’ll force the Commanders to try and keep pace on Saturday. 

The Lions average the most offensive plays per game, gaining the second-most yards per play. That unmerciful approach results in the most points and the second-most yards per game in the NFL. Timing is everything, and Detroit has leveled up its offensive schemes at the most critical juncture of the season. Over the last four weeks, the Lions are averaging 456.5 yards and 38.8 points per game. That’s an advantage you can expect the Lions to wield in their Divisional Round showdown versus the Commanders. 

Washington isn’t known for its defensive resolve. The Commanders ended the regular season with middling defensive metrics, allowing 327.9 yards and 23.0 points per game. Those metrics have taken a hit over the final stages of the regular season, with their last three opponents totaling more than 337 yards. Playing their third straight game on the road, those metrics will assuredly take a hit against the Lions. 

Nevertheless, the Commanders should be able to flaunt their offense and put up yards against the Lions’ beatable secondary. As a result, we could see this one turning into a track meet, with both teams eclipsing 30 points. Ultimately, the lofty total looks like an achievable target at Ford Field.

NFL Best Bet: Over 55.5 -108

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