Falcons’ Bijan Robinson a Value Bet in Rushing Prop Market
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The Atlanta Falcons head into the season with high expectations for their star rookie running back, Bijan Robinson. The excitement around Robinson is well-deserved, and bettors are already seeing opportunities to capitalize on his potential. FanDuel has set Robinson’s rushing yard prop at 63.5 for Week 1, a number that many believe is too low given his talent and role in the Falcons’ offense. Let’s dive into why betting on the over for Robinson’s rushing yards and his touchdown prop offers significant value, and what to expect from the Falcons’ offensive identity moving forward.
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Bijan Robinson’s Rushing Yard Prop: A Clear Opportunity
When assessing Bijan Robinson’s rushing yard prop for Week 1, the number is surprisingly low at 63.5 yards. Given Robinson’s skill set and the Falcons’ offensive scheme, this figure seems like an easy over. The Falcons have made it clear that they want to feature Robinson as their lead back, and the days of the Tyler Allgeier experiment appear to be over.
Robinson has all the tools to be one of the most dominant running backs in the league, combining elite vision, breakaway speed, and power to break tackles. Atlanta’s offensive line is also solid, which will create more opportunities for Robinson to gain chunks of yardage on the ground. Moreover, the Falcons’ passing attack, led by Kirk Cousins, features threats like Drake London and Kyle Pitts, which will prevent defenses from stacking the box against Robinson.
Take the over on Bijan Robinson’s 63.5 rushing yards. With his talent and the Falcons’ focus on establishing the run, Robinson should easily surpass this number. Bettors can expect Robinson to carry a significant workload, making this a great bet.
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Touchdown Prop: Robinson’s Red Zone Potential
In addition to his rushing yard prop, Robinson’s touchdown prop is equally enticing. With odds around -105 for Robinson to score, this bet offers great value, especially considering the Falcons’ commitment to utilizing Robinson in the red zone. Robinson’s ability to find the end zone makes him a prime candidate to score, particularly as the Falcons look to build their offense around him.
Robinson’s touchdown equity is high because Atlanta will rely heavily on him in short-yardage situations. His combination of size and agility makes him a difficult player to stop near the goal line, and it’s reasonable to expect the Falcons to give him plenty of opportunities to punch it in.
Pair Robinson’s over on rushing yards with a touchdown prop for a same-game parlay. This combination offers good value and reflects the Falcons’ identity as a run-first team, particularly in the red zone.
The Falcons’ Offensive Identity: Why Betting on Robinson Makes Sense
Atlanta’s offensive identity in 2024 revolves around its run game. Head coach Arthur Smith has shown a clear preference for a run-heavy approach, and Robinson is the centerpiece of that strategy. With Cousins at quarterback, the Falcons will look to establish the run early and often, allowing Robinson to get into a rhythm.
The presence of playmakers like Drake London and Kyle Pitts will keep defenses honest, ensuring that Robinson has room to operate. The Falcons are built to win in the trenches, and their commitment to the ground game will give Robinson plenty of opportunities to rack up yards. In games where the Falcons are either leading or in close contests, Robinson’s rushing attempts will likely increase, making the over on his rushing yard prop even more appealing.
Given the Falcons’ reliance on the run game, consider placing season-long bets on Robinson’s rushing totals. He has the potential to lead the NFL in rushing yards, and betting on his season-long over is a strong play for futures markets.
Same-Game Parlay: Combining Robinson with Other Top Running Backs
If you’re looking for a way to maximize your betting returns, combining Robinson’s rushing yard prop and touchdown prop with other strong running backs is a great option. For example, pairing Robinson’s props with Kenneth Walker III’s touchdown prop (also around -105) can offer a substantial payout. Both backs are in favorable matchups and are expected to be heavily involved in their respective offenses.
A same-game parlay that includes Robinson to hit the over on rushing yards and score a touchdown, combined with another player’s touchdown prop, can provide excellent value. In this case, pairing Robinson with Walker gives bettors a solid opportunity to cash in on two of the best running backs in the league.
Consider creating a same-game parlay with Robinson’s rushing yards and touchdown prop, combined with Kenneth Walker’s touchdown prop. This offers a good blend of high probability and value, especially in matchups where both running backs are expected to perform well.
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Conclusion: Bet on Bijan Robinson to Start Strong in Week 1
Bijan Robinson is poised to be one of the NFL’s breakout stars in 2024, and his rushing yard and touchdown props offer significant value in Week 1. With the Falcons committed to a run-first offense and Robinson expected to be the focal point, betting on him to surpass 63.5 rushing yards and score a touchdown is a smart play. Combine these bets in a same-game parlay or pair them with other strong running backs to maximize your returns.
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