Fantasy Football: Running Backs to Avoid in 2024 Drafts

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, fantasy football managers are finalizing their draft strategies. While identifying sleeper picks is crucial, it’s equally important to know which players to avoid. When it comes to running backs, there are a few names that carry more risk than reward this season. Let’s dive into the top running backs to be wary of in your upcoming drafts.

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1. DeAndre Swift – Chicago Bears

D’Andre Swift is a name that often excites fantasy managers due to his explosive potential. However, there are several red flags that suggest he might not be the best investment this season.

Why You Should Avoid DeAndre Swift

• Poor Breaking Tackle Metrics: Swift has struggled in breaking tackles throughout his career. This limits his ability to create yardage after contact, a crucial element for any running back looking to be a fantasy star.
• Touchdown Struggles: Swift has historically underperformed in the touchdown department. He’s never been the go-to guy at the goal line, with other players often outpacing him in scoring opportunities.
• Crowded Backfield: The Bears’ backfield is crowded, and in recent games, Khalil Herbert has been the primary ball carrier. In a recent preseason game, Herbert received nine touches compared to just one for Swift. While Swift remains a big-play threat, his role as a change-of-pace back limits his fantasy upside.
• Current Draft Position: Swift’s current ADP (average draft position) suggests he’s being drafted as a high-end option, but his limited role and touchdown concerns make him a risky pick. It might be wiser to wait and target a player like Brian Robinson Jr., who has more touchdown potential in his offense.

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2. Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs was a fantasy workhorse last season, but 2024 could see a decline in his value. Jacobs thrived on volume last year, but several factors suggest he may not replicate that success this season.

Why You Should Avoid Josh Jacobs

• Decreased Volume: Jacobs’ fantasy value has been heavily reliant on his volume of carries. With the Raiders likely to spread the ball around more this season, his opportunities could dwindle.
• Mediocre Metrics: Despite his high volume, Jacobs’ efficiency metrics have been average. Without the same level of volume, his fantasy production is likely to suffer.
• Potential Alternatives: In the same draft range, players like Rachaad White offer better upside, and waiting a bit longer for a volume-driven back like Rhamondre Stevenson could provide better value. Jacobs is also facing competition from Marshawn Lloyd, who could cut into his carries if he stays healthy.

3. Jonathan Brooks – Los Angeles Rams

Jonathan Brooks is a rookie running back with immense talent, but his situation makes him a risky pick for the 2024 season. Brooks is recovering from a torn ACL, and his return timeline is uncertain.

Why You Should Avoid Jonathan Brooks

• Injury Concerns: Brooks is recovering from a torn ACL, and while reports suggest he’s ahead of schedule, there’s no guarantee he’ll be at full strength early in the season. This uncertainty makes him a risky pick, especially in redraft leagues.
• Comparisons to Javonte Williams: Last season, we heard similar optimism about Javonte Williams returning from an ACL injury, but he struggled to regain his form throughout the year. Brooks could face a similar challenge in 2024.
• Better as a Dynasty Stash: Brooks is a player to consider in dynasty or keeper leagues where you can buy low on him this year and potentially reap the rewards in 2024. However, in redraft leagues, it might be best to steer clear of Brooks for now.

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Final Thoughts: Prioritize Safety Over Upside

While these running backs possess undeniable talent, their current situations make them risky picks in 2024 fantasy drafts. D’Andre Swift’s limited role in a crowded backfield, Josh Jacobs’ reliance on volume, and Jonathan Brooks’ injury concerns all present significant risks.

Instead, consider targeting players with more secure roles and higher touchdown potential. In fantasy football, minimizing risk is just as important as maximizing upside. By avoiding these risky running backs, you can build a more reliable foundation for your fantasy team this season.

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