Is Jonathan Taylor Still a 1st-Round Pick in Fantasy Football?

Jonathan Taylor was once the crown jewel of fantasy football, dazzling managers with his 2021 season that saw him amass 1,800 rushing yards, 360 receiving yards, and 20 touchdowns. However, as we approach the 2024 season, it’s important to reassess his value in light of the changes within the Indianapolis Colts offense. Let’s dive into whether Taylor is still worth a first-round pick or if you should consider other options in your fantasy drafts.

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The 2021 Jonathan Taylor: A High Bar to Chase

Jonathan Taylor’s 2021 season was a fantasy manager’s dream. He dominated the league, running behind a strong offensive line and benefiting from an offense that leaned heavily on him. However, the landscape has shifted since then. With a new quarterback in Anthony Richardson and head coach Shane Steichen, the Colts’ offensive scheme is likely to change, potentially reducing Taylor’s role as the focal point of the offense.

Taylor’s rushing yardage prop for 2024 is set at around 1,200 yards. While this is achievable, it’s significantly lower than his 2021 output. Betting on Taylor to go under this mark might be wise, especially if Richardson takes away some of the rushing opportunities, particularly near the goal line.

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The Anthony Richardson Effect

One of the biggest changes for the Colts is the addition of Anthony Richardson at quarterback. Richardson is an athletic, dual-threat quarterback who is expected to make an immediate impact. However, his running ability could significantly cut into Taylor’s touches, particularly in the red zone where Richardson’s size and speed make him a natural goal-line threat.

With Richardson likely to vulture some of Taylor’s touchdown opportunities, betting on Taylor to fall short of his previous touchdown totals might be a prudent move. Additionally, this change in offensive dynamics suggests Taylor’s overall fantasy ceiling might be lower than it was in 2021.

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Is Jonathan Taylor Still a First-Round Pick?

Given the changes in the Colts’ offense, the question arises: Is Jonathan Taylor still worth a first-round pick? In standard leagues, he might still be a viable option due to his talent and potential for high yardage. However, in PPR and half-PPR formats, you might be better off targeting elite wide receivers like A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, or even Garrett Wilson, who offer more consistent production and fewer uncertainties.

Taylor’s current ADP suggests he’s still being valued as a top-four running back. However, if you’re looking for a safer bet with a higher ceiling, wide receivers in the first round might provide more reliable value. Consider drafting Taylor in the second round if he falls, where his risk is mitigated by the value he offers at that point.

Draft Strategy: What to Do If You Pass on Taylor

If you decide to pass on Jonathan Taylor in the first round, there are several strategies you can employ. Grabbing an elite wide receiver like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Garrett Wilson can set you up with a strong foundation. On the turn, targeting a running back like Derrick Henry, who is being drafted around the 20th overall pick, could provide the balance you need.

If you opt for a wide receiver in the first round, betting on them to exceed their yardage and touchdown props could be a solid strategy, especially in offenses that are pass-heavy. Meanwhile, keeping an eye on Taylor’s performance throughout the season could present in-season betting opportunities as the Colts’ offense evolves.

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Final Thoughts: Jonathan Taylor’s 2024 Outlook

Jonathan Taylor remains one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, but the context of his situation has changed. With the emergence of Anthony Richardson and a new offensive scheme, Taylor’s role may be reduced from the workhorse back we saw in 2021. While he’s still a valuable asset, he may no longer be the slam-dunk first-round pick he once was.

Betting Recap:

• Consider betting on Jonathan Taylor to fall short of his 1,200-yard rushing prop, given the changes in the Colts’ offense.
• Be cautious with Taylor’s touchdown totals, as Anthony Richardson could vulture some goal-line carries.
• If passing on Taylor in the first round, target elite wide receivers and balance your roster with a reliable RB like Derrick Henry.

By carefully evaluating Taylor’s situation and understanding the changes within the Colts’ offense, you can make more informed decisions in both your fantasy drafts and betting strategies for the 2024 NFL season.

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