Bears vs. Buccaneers Preview: Picks, Odds and Analysis

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Bears Favored Against Tampa Bay, but Covering 6.5 Points Remains in Question

Chicago remains the team to beat and a strong contender to reach and win the Super Bowl. The Bears have been dominating opponents, but that does not mean they will win and cover every game. They enter the matchup against Tampa Bay as 6.5-point favorites.

Tampa Bay’s run-heavy approach could make covering that spread difficult. The Bucs have committed to giving Bucky Irving around 30 carries per game and Gainewell another 10, while asking Baker Mayfield to throw only a limited number of passes. If Tampa Bay runs the ball 30 to 40 times, it may not need to do much offensively to stay within seven points.

The Bears are still expected to win, but the game could remain tied or close into the fourth quarter, forcing Chicago to make a late play or two. With support for the Bears currently running high, the matchup is a pass from a betting perspective, with a lean toward taking the points with Tampa Bay.

The opposing view favors Chicago at minus 6.5 because of uncertainty surrounding Mayfield’s health. He may have returned too early from a thumb issue, finishing his first game back with 67 passing yards before recording zero passing yards in poor weather last week.

It is unclear whether those results came from unusual game scripts or whether Tampa Bay is protecting an injured Mayfield while keeping him under center instead of turning to an undrafted rookie. Given that uncertainty, the Bears are the preferred side. The Simmons acquisition has also changed the leadership dynamic of Chicago’s defense to a significant degree.