NHL · 3 months ago

2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conn Smythe Award Trends

Sportsgrid Staff

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2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conn Smythe Award Trends

As the Stanley Cup Final drama intensifies heading to Game 6, attention shifts toward Conn Smythe Award contenders—recognizing the most valuable player in the playoffs. Bettors track performance metrics, line movements, and wagering patterns to gauge which Florida Panthers or Edmonton Oilers star is most likely to claim postseason MVP. Below, we analyze key candidates—Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Sergei Bobrovsky—using playoff stats and BetMGM insights to highlight trends driving Smythe odds.

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1. Sam Bennett: From Long Shot to Front-Runner

Performance Metrics:

Playoff-leading 15 goals in 22 games, totaling 22 points this postseason.
In the Stanley Cup Final: 5 goals and 6 points.
Demonstrated clutch scoring, lifting line contributions in critical moments.

BetMGM Line Movement:

Opened at +15000, now around -160, reflecting a dramatic shift as Bennett’s scoring surge captured bettors’ interest.

Why the Surge?

Sam Bennett’s torrid goal pace—leading all playoff scorers—makes him an attractive Smythe pick. His scoring consistency and ability to rise when stakes are highest have drawn heavy action. Early long odds gave way to sharp money as bettors recognized his central role in his team’s offense.

Trends & Considerations:

Highest Handle% of 7.3% signals solid backing but still trailing top contenders.
Bettors must weigh whether his scoring pace sustains if opposing defenses adjust. His current form, however, suggests sustained impact crucial for MVP candidacy.

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2. Brad Marchand: Consistent Clutch Contributor

Performance Metrics:

Third-most playoff goals with 10, adding 10 assists for 20 points deep into the postseason.
NHL-best 6 goals in the Stanley Cup Final, plus a +7 rating and two game-winning goals in the Final.

BetMGM Line Movement:

Moved from +15000 to approximately +350, indicating growing confidence in his postseason resume.

Why Bettors Like Marchand:

Brad Marchand’s knack for scoring timely goals and logging a strong plus-minus underscores two-way value. His ability to impact both ends—high shot volume, playmaking, defensive responsibility—resonates with bettors seeking a proven performer under pressure.

Trends & Considerations:

Market liability: Listed among biggest liabilities, meaning large exposures could lead to sharp adjustments if momentum shifts.
Ticket% moderate but growing: Observers should monitor whether his production continues against tightening checks in decisive games.

3. Connor McDavid: Superstar Consistency

Performance Metrics:

Tied for NHL playoff lead with 33 points; contributed 7 points in the Stanley Cup Final.
Regular-season 100-point pace carried into playoffs, reinforcing elite playmaking and scoring balance.

BetMGM Line Movement:

Shift from +1300 to about +700—reflecting respect for McDavid’s central role but tempered by competition from other high-performers.

Why Bettors Back McDavid:

Connor McDavid’s consistent point production and ability to orchestrate offense make him a perennial contender. His matchup-breaking speed, vision, and durability in deep playoff runs underpin Smythe value. Betting patterns show substantive interest, particularly among those favoring star-driven narratives.

Trends & Considerations:

Highest Ticket% at 13.0%: Indicates broad support in the market.
Highest Handle% of 14.7%: Reflects significant wager volume, signaling confidence but also potential liability if his production dips in final games.

4. Leon Draisaitl: Powerful Dual Threat

Performance Metrics:

Tied with McDavid for playoff-leading 33 points; second in playoff goals with 11.
In the Final: 4 goals and 8 points, demonstrating scoring and playmaking at critical stages.

BetMGM Line Movement:

From +1300ish levels to around +? (often paired closely with McDavid), but notable highest Handle% at 28.3% shows heavy money flowing on Draisaitl.

Why Heavy Money?

Leon Draisaitl’s combination of goal-scoring prowess and assist creation positions him as a Smythe favorite. His ability to finish high-danger chances and drive power-play success resonates with informed bettors. The high Handle% suggests large, potentially sharp wagers favoring his candidacy.

Trends & Considerations:

Biggest Liability: High exposure means sportsbooks monitor adjustments if his production wavers.
Ticket% around 10.1%: Broad backing, though market sensitivity to game outcomes could shift lines rapidly.

5. Sergei Bobrovsky: The Goalie Factor

Performance Metrics:

Posted 4th-best GAA (2.26) and .912 save percentage in playoffs, with 15 wins (most in NHL postseason).
In Stanley Cup Final: Recorded .913 or better save percentages in three games, showcasing elite goaltending under pressure.

BetMGM Line Movement:

Moved from longer odds toward a more competitive range (e.g., initial +some to current odds reflecting goalie impact). Highest Ticket% of 7.9% underscores notable but more measured support.

Why Bettors Consider Bobrovsky:

Elite goaltending can swing playoff series; Sergei Bobrovsky’s consistency in high-stakes starts fuels Smythe speculation. His statistical profile—wins, save percentage, ability to steal games—makes him a contrarian yet logical pick for those valuing the goalie’s role in deep runs.

Trends & Considerations:

Highest Handle% not as high as skaters but solid: Reflects niche but impactful market segment backing a netminder.
Liability lower relative to skaters, but goalie swings can be decisive: Bettors and books alike monitor his form and defensive support.

BetMGM Market Highlights & Implications

Line Movements:
- Sam Bennett: +15000 → -160
- Brad Marchand: +15000 → +350
- Connor McDavid: +1300 → +700
- Leon Draisaitl: similar trajectory to McDavid, heavy handle
- Sergei Bobrovsky: moved tighter as goalie value recognized

Odds Subject to Change. Check Here for the Most Up-to-date NHL Odds

Highest Ticket%:
- Connor McDavid: 13.0%
- Leon Draisaitl: 10.1%
- Sergei Bobrovsky: 7.9%
Highest Handle%:
- Leon Draisaitl: 28.3%
- Connor McDavid: 14.7%
- Sam Bennett: 7.3%
Biggest Liabilities:
- Leon Draisaitl, Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett—large exposures require line vigilance.

Interpretation:

Heavy handle and ticket percentages on Draisaitl and McDavid reflect faith in balanced production; sportsbooks may adjust lines if their outputs deviate.
Bennett’s dramatic line move signals rapid market recognition of his scoring surge; continued production in remaining games could solidify or evaporate value.
Marchand’s two-way impact garners backing, yet liability status warns of swift line shifts if his output cools.
Bobrovsky occupies a distinct goalie niche: fewer tickets but strategic wagers emphasize the weight of goaltending in MVP discussions.

Strategic Takeaways for Bettors

Assess Sustained Performance: Skaters with high goal and point production (Bennett, Marchand, McDavid, Draisaitl) must maintain pace; monitor ice time, matchups, and potential fatigue late in series.
Goalie Impact: Bobrovsky’s form can tilt series; evaluate team defense and shot suppression trends when weighing his Smythe chances.
Market Timing: Early bets on long shots (e.g., Bennett) paid off as lines shifted; late moves may offer less value. Conversely, backing a goalie or secondary star when lines widen could yield upside.
Line Sensitivity: Biggest liabilities indicate where sportsbooks may shorten or lengthen odds rapidly; bettors should watch for signs of line movement after each game.
Narrative vs. Analytics: Combine statistical excellence (points, goals, save metrics) with narrative context (clutch moments, leadership) to inform wagers.