NHL · 10 months ago

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Predictions | NHL Picks Today, Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

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Lightning vs Maple Leafs Predictions | NHL Picks Today, Best Bets

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a must-watch Monday night NHL showdown. After a tough loss to the New York Rangers, the Leafs will look to bounce back against a Lightning team that, despite recent success, is playing above its underlying performance metrics. Here’s why Toronto is primed to secure a victory and why you should consider backing them on the moneyline.

NHL Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game Details

Date: Monday, October 21
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Scotiabank Arena in (Toronto, Ontario)
Only Streaming in Canada: Amazon Prime Video
Watch in USA: Bally Sports Network, Fubo

Despite a recent loss, the Toronto Maple Leafs have shown solid form in the early stages of the season. The Leafs rank in the top 10 in key analytics categories, including a 61.1% high-danger chance rating, a 56.1% shots-for percentage, and a 53.1% expected goals-for percentage. These advanced stats indicate that the Leafs are generating scoring opportunities and limiting their opponents effectively.

Their consistency in creating high-danger chances has been a hallmark of their play, with Toronto out-chancing their opponents in four of their first five games. Additionally, they’ve held three teams to fewer than five high-danger chances, showing their defensive prowess. Given that they’ll have the benefit of the last change on home ice, the Leafs will look to leverage these advantages against the Lightning.

The Pick: Maple Leafs Moneyline

NHL Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds

Matchup	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Lightning	+1.5 (-230)	+112	Over 6.5 (-110)
@ Maple Leafs	-1.5 (+188)	-134	Under 6.5 (-110)

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Lightning Set for Regression

On the other side, the Tampa Bay Lightning have enjoyed a strong start, but their success may be unsustainable. Tampa Bay’s 68.8% actual goals-for rating far exceeds their expected rate of 49.1%, signaling that they’ve been getting favorable bounces that likely won’t last. Their PDO—a combined measure of shooting and save percentage—currently sits at an inflated 1.074, another indicator that regression is looming.

While the Lightning’s recent results have been impressive, their underlying stats suggest they won’t be able to maintain their current pace. The Maple Leafs‘ analytical edge and home-ice advantage make them the smart pick for Monday’s matchup.

Leafs to Exploit Tampa’s Weaknesses

The Leafs’ ability to control possession and generate scoring chances aligns perfectly with the Lightning’s vulnerability to regression. Expect Toronto to capitalize on these weaknesses, particularly with their offensive firepower and home advantage. With all signs pointing toward a Maple Leafs victory, backing Toronto on the moneyline at -134 offers solid value.