NHL Best Bets Today: Expert April 3 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for April 3!
Where to Watch Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders
- Stadium: UBS Arena
- Location: Belmont Park, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders Betting Odds
- Spread: PHI +1.5 (-200) | NYI -1.5 (+165)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under (+100)
- Moneyline: PHI +125 | NYI -145
Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders Kalshi Odds
- Chance: PHI 42% | NYI 58%
- Spread: NYI -1.5 Yes 35¢ | No 66¢
- Total: Over 5.5 Yes 52¢ | No 49¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
A lot is going on in the NHL right now. Division titles are still up for grabs, playoff races are intensifying, and the players’ awards futures market is in a state of constant flux. With all of the other betting opportunities to focus on, you’d be forgiven for overlooking what the Philadelphia Flyers have accomplished. Riding an 8-3-1 record, Philadelphia has moved within striking distance of the final wild-card berth in the Eastern Conference. They will be looking to make the leap into the playoff picture with a win over the New York Islanders on Friday night.
The Flyers have dropped two straight ahead of tonight’s Metropolitan Division clash, but it hasn’t been from a lack of effort. They have eclipsed a 73.4% expected goals-for rating in each of their last two games, extending their run of elite play. Philadelphia has outplayed eight of its past nine opponents, compiling an absurd 62.3% eGF% rating over that stretch. While their offense has been efficient, the Flyers’ defense deserves credit for its work ethic. They’ve held every opponent to nine high-danger chances or fewer, for a tidy 7.0 chances-per-game average.
The Islanders are trending in the opposite direction. New York has been manhandled of late, producing a 29.4% expected goals-for rating over its previous two contests. Over that modest sample, they have been outchanced 29-59 in scoring and 10-36 in high-danger chances. That’s unlikely to change against a Flyers squad that is smothering their opponents in a defensive chokehold.
It’s not reflected in the betting price, but Philadelphia is the superior analytics team. We expect them to ride that wave of momentum against the Islanders tonight.
Best Bet: Flyers +125
Deke the sportsbooks and score with SportsGrid’s free NHL Picks and NHL Player Props.
Where to Watch St. Louis Blues vs Anaheim Ducks
- Stadium: Honda Center
- Location: Anaheim, CA
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
St. Louis Blues vs Anaheim Ducks Betting Odds
- Spread: STL +1.5 (-225) | ANA -1.5 (+175)
- Total: Over 6.5 (+110) | Under (-130)
- Moneyline: STL +115 | ANA -135
St. Louis Blues vs Anaheim Ducks Kalshi Odds
- Chance: STL 45% | ANA 55%
- Spread: ANA -1.5 Yes 35¢ | No 66¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢
The St. Louis Blues are still vying for a playoff spot, but have hit a snag over their current schedule. St. Louis kicked off its four-game road trip with two straight losses, a downturn that should continue tonight in its battle with the Anaheim Ducks.
Previously riding a four-game winning streak, the Blues’ metrics are starting to come undone. They’ve given up 11 high-danger chances twice over their last four games, getting outchanced in two of those contests. Further, we’ve seen diminished offensive production across that sample. St. Louis has been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in three of four, averaging 8.5 opportunities per game. Moreover, their PDO has inflated to 1.044 over their last six, a clear indicator of impending regression.
Conversely, Anaheim is finally starting to turn it on. After getting outplayed in three straight and five of six, the Ducks have been the dominant team in each of their previous two outings. They have outchanced both opponents in scoring and high-danger chances, precipitating a 55.1% expected goals-for rating. That increase was inevitable, with the Ducks going north of 10 high-danger chances in three straight, while holding two of three to nine opportunities or fewer.
The Ducks’ perceived value is low, but their metrics paint a different picture. Anaheim has started to turn up the intensity, trying to fend off challengers for its Pacific Division lead. They get to wield that advantage over the Blues on Friday night, which should lead to a more favorable result.
Best Bet: Ducks -135
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for April 3, 2026
- Flyers +125
- Ducks -135
The NHL is taking its foot off the gas, with only two games on the Friday night schedule. We’re betting the Flyers upend the Islanders at home, with the Ducks cruising to victory over the Blues.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
