NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 23 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for March 23!
Where to Watch Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers
- Stadium: Madison Square Garden
- Location: New York, NY
- Where to Watch: Amazon Prime
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Betting Odds
- Spread: OTT -1.5 (+130) | NYR +1.5 (-155)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under (+110)
- Moneyline: OTT -190 | NYR +160
Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Kalshi Odds
- Chance: OTT 64% | NYR 36%
- Spread: OTT -1.5 Yes 43¢ | No 59¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 44¢ | No 57¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
We only have one game on tonight’s docket, and that pits the Ottawa Senators against the New York Rangers. The Sens are four points back of the final wild card spot with two games in hand. They need to make the most of these catch-up games if they hope to usurp the Red Wings and claim one of the last playoff spots. Conversely, the Rangers sit dead last in the Eastern Conference and have all but given up on the season. The gap between these teams may be wider than the betting line implies.
Somehow, New York’s four-game losing streak doesn’t even capture how bad it has looked. The Original Six franchise has been outplayed by a substantive margin in six straight. Across that sample, they haven’t attempted more than nine high-danger chances and are averaging a paltry 6.5 opportunities per game. While the Rangers’ defensive play is marginally better, three of those six opponents have eclipsed 10 quality chances. Their struggles are best encapsulated by their lackluster 38.7% expected goals-for rating.
On the other hand, the Sens are doing everything in their power to rein in a playoff spot. They’ve outplayed their opponents in five straight, with their last two performances being particularly effective. Ottawa put up a 72.8% eGF rating versus the Maple Leafs last time out, slightly below the 73.0% mark they established versus the Islanders. Altogether, the Senators are skating around with a 60.4% eGF rating, while averaging 14.8 high-danger chances per game across the five-game sample.
The Senators have a significant analytics advantage that’s not fully reflected in the betting price. At the current offering, the betting edge lies in backing the visitors in this Eastern Conference battle.
Best Bet: Senators -190
Deke the sportsbooks and score with SportsGrid’s free NHL Picks and NHL Player Props.
Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Best Player Prop
With only one game on the docket, we’re shifting our focus to the player prop market. With Ottawa predicted to dominate, we’re looking at an unsuspecting defender to get on the board as an any time goal scorer.
Thomas Chabot’s contributions to the Senators’ on-ice metrics can’t be overlooked. The former first-round pick averages more ice time than any other player, dictating pace at five-on-five and across all strengths. At even strength, Chabot has a noteworthy 52.4% Corsi rating, which contributes to his 54.4% high-danger and 55.1% scoring chance ratings. Factoring in his time on special teams, those metrics jump to 54.8% (Corsi), 55.8% (high-danger), and 57.3% (scoring), respectively.
Moreover, the Sens’ rearguard has amplified his offensive contributions over the past few games. Since the start of March, Chabot has 20 shots in 10 games, recording multiple attempts on target in all but three of those games. Predictably, that correlates with an increase in output, accumulating six assists and one goal over that stretch. Chabot’s PDO is still below 1.000, implying we should see increased productivity and scoring from the blueliner in the short term.
With just one goal on 20 shots, Chabot’s shooting percentage has fallen below his career average of 5.9% of even further off this year’s mark of 7.4%. We’re betting his run of elite play continues against a weak Rangers squad, and he finds the back of the net at Madison Square Garden.
Best Bet: Thomas Chabot Any Time Goal Scorer +500
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 23, 2026
- Senators -190
- Thomas Chabot Any Time Goal Scorer +500
We’ve got two plays queued up for tonight’s showdown between the Senators and Rangers. Ottawa should have no problem getting past its Metropolitan Division foes in the Big Apple. We’re loading up on Thomas Chabot as an anytime goal scorer.
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