Penguins’ Sidney Crosby is the Real Hart Trophy Frontrunner

Over the past few years, hockey fans have accepted that Connor McDavid is just the best player in the NHL. The three-time Hart Trophy winner consistently out-paces the rest of the league with his efforts, and has been rewarded handsomely for it. 

However, 2023-24 is shaping up to be a different race. Five players are still in the running for the distinction of MVP. 

The Contenders

Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon is the odds-on favorite to claim the award, but there’s a rationale for supporting any of the other top four contenders.

Nikita Kucherov is the league’s top scorer, setting a Tampa Bay Lightning franchise record with 136 points. McDavid has led his Edmonton Oilers back from the verge of collapse, inching toward a Pacific Division title. Similarly, Toronto Maple Leafs sensation Auston Matthews could become the first 70-goal scorer since 1992-93. 

Meanwhile, Sidney Crosby has quietly led the Pittsburgh Penguins back into a postseason berth despite Kyle Dubas’ best efforts to sabotage the franchise. 

See if Matthews and Crosby are part of our Penguins-Leafs +429 NHL Best Bets SGP.

In reconciling that performance with the award’s intent, it’s clear that Crosby should be the frontrunner for this year’s Hart Trophy. 

Crosby’s MVP Profile

Crosby is excelling in every facet of the game. The two-time Hart Trophy winner has 85 points while appearing in all 77 Penguins games this season.

Arguably, his most impressive feat is eclipsing the 40-goal threshold. After Dubas failed to land or traded away any complementary scorers, Crosby was left to drive scoring on his own. His 40 goals are the highest total since 2016-17, potentially paving the way for him to set the second-highest total of his career. 

Sterling Analytics

It’s also worth noting that those performances are propped up by elite analytics. Crosby rates as a pre-eminent talent and remains a progression candidate before the end of the season. 

So far this season, the Penguins center has a 54.8% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five. That puts Crosby second on the team among all players, with at least 300 minutes played. Predictably, those metrics improve when we factor in his play across all strengths. His expected goals-for rating jumps to 62.7%, putting him tops on the team among players with at least 600 minutes played.

In both categories, Crosby’s actual goals-for rating falls below expected. Likewise, his PDO has fallen below the hypothetical average of 1.00, implying that Crosby’s recent surge should continue, if not improve, before the end of the season. 

Hart Trophy Award

We also have to consider the intent of the Hart Trophy. According to the award’s own inscription, and as voted on by hockey writers, the trophy is presented “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team." 

That doesn’t necessarily mean the most outstanding player in the league. The wording suggests that the player who means the most to his team should be handed the trophy. 

Check out who these Hart candidates are slated to match up against if the postseason started today

Conclusion

Although Connor Hellebuyck could give Sidney Crosby a run for his money, without question, Crosby is the most valuable to his team. He has single-handedly willed his team to victory, delivering superb metrics across all strengths. More importantly, he’s translated his analytics success into tangible on-ice achievements. 

It could be worth a flyer on betting Crosby to win this year’s Hart Trophy. His current price of +11000 may be the longest on the board, but based on our analysis, he’s the deserving candidate. 

The Professional Hockey Writers Association may direct you to believe otherwise, but we know Crosby is the rightful Hart Trophy frontrunner.

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