Predicting Landing Spots for the NHL’s Top 10 Trade Targets

Pavel Buchnevich - St. Louis Blues

Predicted Landing Spot: Edmonton Oilers

Cap Hit: $5.8 Million

Years Remaining: Signed Through 2024-25

Rumors of unrest have emerged from the Edmonton Oilers locker room, which could precipitate substantial changes. Seemingly unhappy with his tertiary role on the team, Evander Kane is becoming a nuisance the Oilers would prefer to eliminate. The St. Louis Blues may happily oblige, offering Pavel Buchnevich in return. 

Salary-wise, it's a near wash. Buchnevich's salary of $5.8 million comes in nearly $700K over Kane's annual hit, making it a palatable move for both teams. 

Moreover, both players have comparable analytics profiles. Kane has a 53.2% expected goals-for rating, resulting in 21 goals and 35 points. Similarly, Buchnevich checks in at 50.5%, 24, and 48, respectively. 

The Blues and Oilers are familiar trade partners, making several deals over the past few seasons. The most significant could come in 2024 if these teams pair up to move Buchnevich for Kane.

Vladimir Tarasenko - Ottawa Senators

Predicted Landing Spot: Boston Bruins

Cap Hit: $5 Million

Years Remaining: Pending UFA

Boston Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney has outlined his intent to upgrade his scoring ahead of the playoffs. The Bs are on the edge of the top ten, tallying 199 goals in 60 games this season. Amplifying their five-on-five scoring is a prerequisite for an extended playoff run. 

Vladimir Tarasenko checks that box for the Bruins. The Russian forward has been a solid complementary piece on an underwhelming Ottawa Senators squad, totaling 15 goals and 38 points this season. More impressively, 13 of those tallies and 31 of those points have come at five-on-five. 

The Bruins haven't made it past the second round of the playoffs since losing the Stanley Cup Final to the St. Louis Blues in 2019. If they want to get real about winning, Tarasenko is a name they need to consider. 

Jacob Markstrom - Calgary Flames

Predicted Landing Spot: New Jersey Devils

Cap Hit: $6 Million

Years Remaining: Signed Through 2025-26

The New Jersey Devils haven't reached the heights they set following last year's renaissance, and goaltending has been one of the limiting factors. New Jersey ranks among the bottom ten in goals against, save percentage, and high-danger save percentage. Jacob Markstrom resolves all of those concerns.

Calgary Flames players are dropping like flies, and Markstrom could be the latest casualty. His resurgent campaign has elevated his trade profile, and several teams will come knocking. The Devils should lead the charge to acquire Markstrom as they try to stay afloat in the unforgiving Metropolitan Division.

If Flames' GM Craig Conroy obeys basic market principles, now is the time to sell high on his aging goaltender. He may be able to bilk the Devils out of their best assets as they look to salvage their season.

Adam Henrique - Anaheim Ducks

Predicted Landing Spot: Carolina Hurricanes

Cap Hit: $5.825 Million

Years Remaining: Pending UFA

Adam Henrique's time with the Anaheim Ducks is ending, which is a promising move for the veteran center. Henrique has spent the past seven seasons toiling away for an underachieving Ducks squad, and a trade gives him a shot at hockey's Holy Grail.

There will be no shortage of suitors for Henrique's services. The 34-year-old can play in the top or bottom six and is a complementary scorer on any roster. However, his analytics profile is best suited for the Carolina Hurricanes. 

Rod Brind'Amour has an excellent track record of getting the most out of his forwards corps. All but two of his players have expected goals for ratings above 50.0% at five-on-five, and 14 different skaters have at least 20 points.

Undoubtedly, Henrique would be a solid addition to the Canes' roster.

Matt Dumba - Arizona Coyotes

Predicted Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Lightning

Cap Hit: $3.9 Million

Years Remaining: Pending UFA

For years, the Tampa Bay Lightning ruled over the NHL. But over the past couple of years, their dynasty has been toppled. The Bolts have failed to maintain their excellent standards, and deteriorating defensive metrics are a big reason why. Adding Matt Dumba before the trade deadline could be the move that extends Tampa Bay's reign into 2024. 

So far this season, the Lightning rank 17th in scoring chances and 13th in high-danger opportunities allowed. Worse, that ineffective defensive play has resulted in the second-most goals against at five-on-five and the fourth-most overall. 

Dumba has cemented himself as an invaluable stay-at-home defenseman. Abandoning his offensive expectations has let him settle into a shutdown role that the Lightning desperately need. We anticipate Dumba being shipped off to the Sunshine State before next Friday. 

Jordan Eberle - Seattle Kraken

Predicted Landing Spot: Philadelphia Flyers

Cap Hit: $5.5 Million

Years Remaining: Pending UFA

The Metropolitan Division has emerged as the toughest division in hockey. Seven of the eight teams are above .500, and each one of those squads has postseason aspirations. Consequently, the Philadelphia Flyers must move to upgrade their scoring, separating themselves from the rest of the pack. 

Philadelphia doesn't have a standout offensive catalyst. Travis Konecny leads the team in scoring, but he's one of only six Flyers players with more than nine goals this season. The Seattle Kraken may be able to extend a lifeline to address those deficiencies. 

Jordan Eberle has been one of the top-scoring wingers of the past decade. Ebs has had at least 20 goals in seven of his previous 11 seasons, not including the 14 he has scored in 54 games this season. That's the type of player the Flyers crave if they hope to rise to the top of the Metropolitan Division mountain. 

Anthony Duclair - San Jose Sharks

Predicted Landing Spot: Montreal Canadiens

Cap Hit: $3 Million

Years Remaining: Pending UFA

It's early in Martin St. Louis's head coaching career, but he's already developed a reputation for unlocking a forward's fullest potential. Unfortunately, Anthony Duclair has yet to cross paths with St. Louis, but that could change before March 8. Duclair is rumored to be on his way out of San Jose, and the Montreal Canadiens would be the ideal marriage for the winger. 

A Quebec native, Duclair has spent most of his career underachieving relative to expectations. Drafted as a scoring winger in the third round, the 28-year-old has spent the past few seasons bouncing between franchises as a reclamation project. 

St. Louis and the Canadiens can maximize Duclair's contributions. Further, he comes at a discounted rate after a lackluster 2023-24 campaign. But that won't be lost on the Habs, as they've already set their sights on competing down the road. 

Reilly Smith - Pittsburgh Penguins

Predicted Landing Spot: Toronto Maple Leafs

Cap Hit: $5 Million

Years Remaining: Signed Through 2024-25

Reilly Smith needs to distance himself from the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Stanley Cup-winning forward has struggled in the Steel City, posting one of the worst statistical campaigns of his career. His current role contrasts his uptempo style with the Vegas Golden Knights, and he would benefit from a return to a similar system. 

That's where the Toronto Maple Leafs come in. For years, Toronto has been one of the analytics darlings of the NHL. The Maple Leafs have a stable of top offensive performers that can re-invigorate Smith and elevate his production. Smith's 52.9% expected goals-for rating is the fourth-worst benchmark of his career, and his 0.2 goals-per-game is the lowest since 2014-15.

Skating next to any of the top nine forwards in Toronto would remedy those lackluster stats. Surely, Kyle Dubas will be looking to move on from Smith and fleece his former squad.

Jakob Chychrun - Ottawa Senators

Predicted Landing Spot: Detroit Red Wings

Cap Hit: $4.6 Million

Years Remaining: Signed Through 2024-25

There's been renewed optimism surrounding the Detroit Red Wings since they landed Patrick Kane. The Original Six franchise has motored up the standings and entrenched themselves as a playoff contender. With that, they'll be looking for reinforcements for their first playoff run since 2016.

The Red Wings could use some help on their backend. Shayne Gostisbehere and Moritz Seider do most of the heavy lifting, but their underlying metrics leave much to be desired. Only one player on the Wings' roster has an expected goals-for rating above 50.0%, and it's not a blueliner. 

Granted, some of the shine has worn off Jakob Chychrun since he landed with the Ottawa Senators. Still, he would be a welcome addition to the Red Wings defensive corps. Detroit will be looking to add ahead to their puzzle of the deadline, and the Senators could offer a promising piece.

Pavel Buchnevich - St. Louis Blues

Predicted Landing Spot: Edmonton Oilers

Cap Hit: $5.8 Million

Years Remaining: Signed Through 2024-25

Rumors of unrest have emerged from the Edmonton Oilers locker room, which could precipitate substantial changes. Seemingly unhappy with his tertiary role on the team, Evander Kane is becoming a nuisance the Oilers would prefer to eliminate. The St. Louis Blues may happily oblige, offering Pavel Buchnevich in return. 

Salary-wise, it's a near wash. Buchnevich's salary of $5.8 million comes in nearly $700K over Kane's annual hit, making it a palatable move for both teams. 

Moreover, both players have comparable analytics profiles. Kane has a 53.2% expected goals-for rating, resulting in 21 goals and 35 points. Similarly, Buchnevich checks in at 50.5%, 24, and 48, respectively. 

The Blues and Oilers are familiar trade partners, making several deals over the past few seasons. The most significant could come in 2024 if these teams pair up to move Buchnevich for Kane.