SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, April 27

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

NHL 4/26 Insights: Impact of Home Ice and Team Resilience

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs Moneyline (-125): 5-Star Rating

The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs continue their first-round matchup with another showdown on Saturday night. The Leafs find themselves in a 2-1 series deficit, needing a win at home or risk facing elimination in Game 5 back in Boston. Thankfully for Leafs fans, our projections reveal a substantive edge in backing the home squad tonight at Scotiabank Arena. 

Toronto was stymied on home ice on Wednesday night. The Maple Leafs were held to a laughable five high-danger and 19 scoring chances at five-on-five, resulting in their worst expected goals-for rating of the playoffs. When the dust settled, Toronto was outplayed resulting in a 46.1% expected goals-for rating. 

However, that’s been the exception to an otherwise effective stretch of hockey for the Leafs. Dating back to the end of the regular season, Toronto had outplayed its opponents in six of its past eight, including the first two games versus Boston. 

Conversely, the Bruins have been consistently outplayed over their recent schedule. Including Game 3’s advantage over the Leafs, the B’s have posted an expected goals-for rating above 50.0% in just three of their previous seven. 

Our analysis supports that we should expect a resurgent effort from the Maple Leafs on Saturday night. Toronto has a pristine track record of getting the better of its opponents, while the Bruins have been consistently outplayed. As a result, we’re laying the short price with the home team in this one.

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders
Over 5.5 (-105): 4-Star Rating

The Carolina Hurricanes were lucky to walk away with a win in Game 3 in their opening-round series versus the New York Islanders. The Canes were substantially outplayed, still managing to walk away on the strength of outstanding goaltending. We’re expecting a sustained Islanders attack in Game 4 at UBS Arena. Although it might not result in an Islanders’ win, it should precipitate a high-scoring affair. 

The Islanders threw everything they could at Carolina on Thursday. New York recorded 66 shots, 31 of which landed on target. Moreover, they out-chanced the Canes in five-on-five high-danger chances by a 10-5 margin while also getting the better of the guests in scoring opportunities. Still, they managed only two goals in defeat. 

Still, Carolina can beat the Islanders at their own game. The Hurricanes have been one of the top analytics teams in the league, delivering exceptional results in both ends of the ice. That’s been evident throughout the series, with the Canes averaging 9.7 high-danger chances per game. But Carolina is still operating below expected levels, failing to reach their expected goals-for tally. That makes them natural progression candidates as output increases to match production. 

Game 4 should be an offensive thrill ride. The Isles will use home ice to their advantage again, sustaining their improved production from Game 3. Similarly, the Canes are due for an increase in scoring, as they remain below expected levels. That should result in this one easily soaring over the modest 5.5 total.

NHL Western Predictions: Oilers, Predators, Canucks Insights

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Under 5.5 (+110): 3-Star Rating

We’re going back to the Six for our final play of the day, highlighting the total in the Leafs versus Bruins matchup. Both Atlantic Division squads flashed improved defensive efforts in Game 3, an indicator that more low-scoring games are on the horizon. We’re using tonight’s spot to back the under 5.5 at +110.

Irrespective of venue, Toronto has been effective at limiting the Bruins’ chances in the playoffs. Boston has been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances in all three contests, averaging a minuscule 6.7 per game. Likewise, scoring opportunities have been in short supply, with Boston failing to exceed 21 chances and being held to an average of 16.0. 

Still, the B’s matched that defensive intensity on Wednesday night. Brad Marchand and company handcuffed the Leafs’ top scorers, holding the hosts to just five quality chances in defeat. Boston will need to match that effort again in Game 4 if they hope to put the Leafs on the ropes before heading back to Beantown. 

Renewed defensive efforts point toward another slog on Saturday night. Consequently, we’re expecting Game 4 to be a tight-checking affair with goals at a premium. Betting under 5.5 is another one of our preferred wagers on Saturday’s slate. We rate it as a three-star play.

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