SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, May 11

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

Carolina Changes Goalie, Rangers Clutch in Overtime Win

New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Over 5.5 (1106): 4-Star Rating

The Carolina Hurricanes are only three games into the second round but they are already on the brink of elimination. Carolina dropped the first two games of their Metropolitan Division series against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden before suffering heartbreaking overtime defeat in Game 3. If they hope to extend the series, it will take a more robust offensive effort on Saturday night. 

Through the first three games of the series, the Canes have totaled just six goals at five-on-five and eight goals altogether. But it hasn’t been from lack of effort. The Metropolitan Division runner ups have seen a sharp decline in their shooting percentages, particularly over the last two games. They’ fallen below 4.6% shooting at five-on-five in each of those contests, dragging their playoff percentage down to 6.0%. Inevitably, that number should start to climb as the Hurricanes start to benefit from their persistent efforts. 

Still, they still have to find a way to temper a scorching Rangers offense. New York has tallied at four goals in five of their seven postseason games, inflating its shooting percentage to 13.6%. In a desperate move to stay alive, Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour is changing goalies ahead of Game 4. Unfortunately, that won’t be enough to turn cool off the Rangers scoring. 

Based on our analysis, we are anticipating another high-scoring affair at PNC Arena, an outcome that is also reflected in our projections. The most bettor-friendly advantage on tonight’s slate is taking over 5.5 between the Hurricanes and Rangers. 

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche Moneyline (-134): 4-Star Rating

The Central Division showdown between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche has been a lot closer than the aforementioned Metropolitan Division series. The Avs stole Game 1 in overtime, nearly replicating the feat by erasing a four-goal deficit in Game 2. However, it was all for naught as the Stars hung on for a 5-3 win. But with the series shifting back to Denver, the edge lies in backing Colorado on Saturday night. 

The Avalanche have been a dominant force in the playoffs. Through seven games they lead all playoff teams with an assertive 59.1% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five. More importantly, they’ve outplayed the Stars through the first two games of the series by a convincing margin. With the home faithful at their backs and last change at their disposal, that advantage only increases. 

Conversely, the Stars are falling over their recent sample. The Central Division winners have been outplayed in four of their previous five games, resulting in a disheartening 46.2%. Moreover, they don’t have the offensive structure to offset the Avalanche’s relentless attack, mustering a combined eight high-danger chances through the first two games of the series. 

The outcomes through the first two games of the series don’t reflect Colorado’s dominance. We’re expecting them to run away with Game 3, easily out-pacing the implied probability of the -134 betting price. That leaves a significant edge in backing the hosts on Saturday night.

Igor Shesterkin Leads as Favorite for Conn Smythe Trophy

New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Hurricanes Moneyline (-156): 2-Star Rating

Bettors have also taken a firm stance on the Hurricanes in a must-win Game 4 on home ice. After opening at -148, the Canes have been bought up to -156 ahead of puck drop. That trajectory aligns with our modeling, which gives Carolina a 65.4% chance of walking away victorious. 

As expected, the Hurricanes have a few metrics supporting a revival. Carolina has outshot the Rangers in each of the past two games, by a wide margin. At five-on-five, the Canes have a 75-44 advantage, translating to a 63.0% shots-for percentage. Likewise, they have robust Corsi and scoring chances ratios, tilting the ice in their direction. 

Altogether, Carolina has posted game scores above 52.6% in each of those contests, but doesn’t have the results to show for its efforts. We’re expecting a more positive result to follow another substantive effort.

New York’s metrics are overheating, putting the Broadway Blueshirts on unsustainable footing. Their 1.036 PDO is the highest in the playoffs, and will inevitably start to falter. With that, more losses will follow as the Rangers continue to get outplayed. 

We’re betting the Rangers downward trajectory starts tonight, backing the Hurricanes as mid-range chalk.

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