SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, May 4

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

Edmonton Oilers are favored in the series vs Vancouver Canucks

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins
Over 5.5 (+106): 4-Star Rating

And so, it all comes down to this. After facing a 3-1 series deficit, the Toronto Maple Leafs have stormed back to tie their opening round matchup against the Boston Bruins at three games apiece. The winner of Game 7 on Saturday night assures themselves of a spot in the second round. Based on our projections, bettors should expect a high-scoring affair. 

The Bruins have tried desperately to ice the Leafs in Games 5 and 6, coming up short in both contests. On Tuesday night, the B’s put up 12 high-danger chances in a 2-1 overtime loss. They dialed up the intensity further on Thursday night, attempting 16 high-danger and 32 scoring chances on route to a 2-1 defeat. It’s just a matter of time before the Bruins break out, and we’re expecting a rejuvenated effort on Saturday night. 

Toronto wouldn’t be in this position if not for Joseph Woll. The Maple Leafs netminder has been sensational since coming on in relief in Game 4. Woll has stopped 54 of 56 shots for a jaw-dropping 96.4% save percentage. Likewise, he has an absurd 0.86 goals against average, while allowing two goals in nearly 140 minutes of action. 

Woll is on an unsustainable pace and is on the verge of collapse, operating well outside of normal ranges. Still, the Leafs possess the offensive talent to offset some of that anticipated regression, and are due for a breakout of their own. As a result, we’re expecting this game to eclipse the modest total and go over 5.5. 

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins
Bruins Moneyline (-135): 1-Star Rating

As you may have inferred, there’s more than one bettor-friendly wager to make in tonight’s Atlantic Division showdown. As noted, Boston has been the superior team over the latter part of the series. With an improved offensive showing anticipated, we’re also expecting the Bruins to exorcise their demons from last season and walk away victorious. 

Boston is in a familiar position ahead of Game 7. After being up 3-1 versus the Florida Panthers last year, the B’s dropped three straight games, earning one of the most inglorious playoff exits in recent memory. With that came some hard lessons that they are hoping to avoid again in 2024. 

As we’ve seen with their recent efforts, the Bruins are determined to move onto the second round. Boston has outplayed the Leafs in two straight and three of four, resulting in a cumulative 54.3% expected goals-for rating. But with an actual goals-for rating of 41.7%, the B’s are primed for progression before this series concludes. With the home faithful at their backs, we’re betting the Bruins don’t blunder this opportunity two years in a row. 

According to our projections, the Bruins have a 58.3% chance of walking away victorious in Game 7. That aligns with the implied probability of -140, suggesting that there’s an edge in backing Boston at -140 or better. Depending on where you shop, we’ve seen the line dip as low as -130. As it continues to fall, the edge in backing the Bruins increases. Keep on eye on line movement ahead of puck drop to maximize the entry point. 

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