Duke’s 2026 March Madness Win Probability
Live prediction market forecasts for Duke based on real-time Kalshi and Polymarket data. Updated daily.
📊 Duke Blue Devils Market Brief
The betting market for the Duke Blue Devils is characterized by high-ceiling speculation and a "flight to talent." Following a dominant West Coast sweep of Stanford and Cal, Duke opened with a 18-1 record, vaulting them into the sweet spots of the AP Poll. Respect is being given to Duke’s scoring margin success in 2025-26, which, for much of the season, has outpaced some of Duke’s top versions in school history.
The immediate superstardom of freshman Cameron Boozer, a legit Naismith Award contender, defines the team’s profile. With a rotation bolstered by veterans like Caleb Foster and elite freshmen Dame Sarr and Cayden Boozer, Duke has avoided the "frontcourt fatigue" that often plagues young teams. Analytically, they are a powerhouse, sitting among the elite in NET and KenPom, driven by a defense that can shut down opponents.
Duke9%Key Stats
9%
Current Probability
+1%
30-Day Change
#T-3
Current Rank
What's Driving Duke's Odds
Historic Scoring Margin: Duke is outscoring opponents by over 20 points per game, a statistical outlier that traditionally signals a deep tournament run.
The "Boozer Effect": Cameron Boozer’s ability to score at all three levels has provided Duke with a "closer" that bettors prioritize in tight March Madness matchups.
Elite Road Resilience: A perfect [team_records] record in true road games has proven that this young roster can handle hostile environments, a major factor in tournament seeding.
Suffocating Defensive Metric: Duke currently boasts a top-10 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, limiting opponents to just 39% shooting from the field.
Duke vs Other Top Contenders
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Duke Blue Devils March Madness FAQs
Yes. Duke has won five National Championships (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015), all under Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski.
Under Jon Scheyer, Duke has transitioned into a "positionless" attacking system. They prioritize versatility, often playing multiple 6'8"+ athletes simultaneously to create defensive mismatches and high-volume transition opportunities.
The "Brotherhood" includes NBA champions Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum, alongside legends like Grant Hill, Christian Laettner, and JJ Redick, and current stars Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero.
