Gonzaga’s 2026 March Madness Win Probability
Live prediction market forecasts for Gonzaga based on real-time Kalshi and Polymarket data. Updated daily.
📊 Gonzaga Market Brief
The betting market for the Gonzaga Bulldogs reflects cautious optimism following a significant mid-season roster shift. While Gonzaga’s resume is bolstered by high-conviction wins over Kentucky, UCLA, and Alabama, the market has recently adjusted due to a major injury to leading scorer Braden Huff (knee), who could be iffy, even by tournament time. The current prediction market implied probability indicates that, while bettors still view Gonzaga as a Top-10 threat, there is a "wait-and-see" approach to their frontcourt depth.
Despite the injury news, Gonzaga remains an analytical darling. They’ve been among the Nation’s best in SRS (Simple Rating System), with strong Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency over the first half of the season. The rotation is now heavily reliant on Graham Ike and emerging Spanish guard Mario Saint-Supéry, who has taken on a larger playmaking role. The market sentiment is that Gonzaga is a "buy-low" candidate if they can maintain their WCC dominance while Huff recovers.
Gonzaga5%Key Stats
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What's Driving Gonzaga's Odds
High-Octane Offense: Gonzaga is easily the scoring class of the WCC, while running away in the conference standings. The Zags are rivaling any team across the country in 90-point games.
Resume Quality: : Dominant non-conference victories over Alabama and Kentucky have provided a "quality floor" that keeps their seeding projections in the #2-#3 range despite the lack of a "power conference" schedule.
Frontcourt Reliance: With Huff sidelined, the market is monitoring Ike’s workload. His ability to anchor the interior solo will determine if Gonzaga can avoid a "trap" loss in conference play.
Elite Efficiency: The Bulldogs have hung around the top 10 in Offensive and Defensive Rating, a balance that typically correlates with Elite Eight or Final Four runs.
Gonzaga vs Other Top Contenders
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Gonzaga Bulldogs March Madness FAQs
No. Gonzaga has reached the National Championship game twice (2017 and 2021) but has fallen short both times. They are widely considered the most successful program in modern history to have not yet won a title.
Under Mark Few, Gonzaga is famous for an ultra-efficient transition offense and elite player development. They consistently lead the nation in field goal percentage and "points in the paint," utilizing versatile big men who can both pass and score.
Hall of Fame point guard John Stockton, current NBA All-Star Domantas Sabonis, 2022 Rookie of the Year runner-up Chet Holmgren, and standouts like Jalen Suggs, Rui Hachimura, and Andrew Nembhard.
