Euro 2024 Semifinal: Spain vs. France, Prediction, Best Bet

Spain are coming into this game on absolute fire. They are the only team at the Euros to win every single game. Against Germany, they needed extra time, but a Mikel Merino header sealed the victory for the Spanish and secured their spot. Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, and Rodri are some of the standouts in this tournament, and their contributions are propelling La Furia Roja further. Unfortunately for them, they did not escape the Germany game unscathed. Pedri sustained an injury, which has ended his tournament. At the same time, Dani Carvajal will be suspended for the match against France due to an accumulation of yellow cards. 

European Championship Semifinals Best Bet

Still, there is a reason people are picking Spain to win the whole thing: no team has been able to slow them down. Dani Olmo will likely slot into the starting lineup with Pedri gone. He has scored in both knockout games and has been a threat, with his late runs into the box being hard to track. Germany was their stiffest test thus far, and it’s fair to say they passed, as they continued to look fluid and threatening in possession, and their defense, aided by Rodri, has looked more than capable of fending off any threat. 

France, on the other hand, has been underwhelming. They have not scored a single goal from open play, coming through the tournament thus far with a mixture of own-goals and a penalty. Les Bleus also did not look their best against Portugal. They needed penalties to advance after neither side registered a goal. The mask and his broken nose are affecting Kylian Mbappe. He was subbed out in extra time due to his discomfort and was largely ineffectual in the game.

If you are looking for positives, you must look at Frances’s defense, which has only conceded one goal. During Didier Deschamps’s tenure, France has been pragmatic, preventing goals and hoping for quality moments to make a difference. At this point in the tournament, it’s becoming harder and harder to wait. Theo Hernandez, Eduardo Camavinga, Marcus Thuram, and Ousmane Dembele have all shown flashes, but decision-making in the final third has been poor. Also hurting them is that Antoine Griezmann has yet to provide the influence he did in the last World Cup.

Best Bet: France to qualify for the next round (-102)

European Championship Semifinals Best Prop Bet

Even with the negativity surrounding their performance, it is hard not to back France. If they win, it will be their fourth major final in eight years, which shows their experience and ability to win games. France will play within themselves and try to make it a cagey affair, so fans of free-flowing soccer may not be in for an enjoyable watch. I like this bet because Spain has not had much of a scoring threat from their strikers, relying more on their midfielders. This will be harder against a French midfield featuring N’Golo Kante. Plus, Spain is inexperienced, relying predominantly on young kids who have not been here before and could be overwhelmed by the moment.

Best Prop: Correct score at half 0-0 (+120)

European Championship Semifinals Best Anytime Goal Bet

This won’t be an open game. If it becomes one, it won’t happen in the first half. Spain needed 51 minutes to break down Germany’s defense, and the one goal France conceded happened in the 79th minute from a penalty. With the heightened stakes and neither team giving much ground, I expect the first half to come and go without a goal. France will be content to sit back and wait for their moment to strike, and the Spanish will find breaking down their defense a much more formidable challenge than any that has preceded it.

Anytime Goal Scorer: Kylian Mbappe (+240)

France has underperformed their xG. They would be expected to have around seven goals so far and instead have zero. Kylian Mbappe has had a conversion rate of 3%, only scoring once in his 34 shots in the tournament. This feels like too strange a statistical anomaly, especially when considering how prolific he has been in the World Cup. If the French are to advance, he must be involved. Despite how disjointed France has looked, he has been trying to create as much as possible. Mbappe should find his moment against Spain.

European Championship Semifinals Prediction

I believe that the French will win. It is a pretty tight match up despite how good Spain have looked, for me that comes down to a couple reasons. France’s defense and their keeper, Mike Maignan, have been rock solid, and on the pitch, you’d have to say the French have more proven game-winning talent. Not only do they have players in the starting 11 who have won at the biggest stages, but they can also bring on their country’s highest goal scorer, Olivier Giroud, at any time to make a difference. This will be a battle and experience counts a lot, I believe France will make it to their fourth major final.
France 1 – Spain 0

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