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NCAAF · 22 days ago

Big Ten Line Movement: Penn State Surges, Michigan, OSU Drop

Danny Mogollon

Danny Mogollon

Big Ten Line Movement: Penn State Surges, Michigan, OSU Drop

Here’s how the betting lines have moved in the seven Big Ten games over the past couple of days, heading into Week 12 of college football season:

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Road Team Home Team Opening Line (FanDuel) Current Line (FanDuel)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Penn State Nittany Lions PENN STATE -17.5 PENN STATE -20.5
Michigan State Spartans Indiana Hoosiers INDIANA -4.5  INDIANA -4.5
Purdue Boilermakers Northwestern Wildcats NORTHWESTERN -1.5 Purdue -3
Michigan Wolverines Maryland Terrapins Michigan -20.5 Michigan -19.5
Illinois Fighting Illini Iowa Hawkeyes IOWA -3.5 IOWA -3.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers Ohio State Buckeyes OHIO STATE -28.5 OHIO STATE -27.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers WISCONSIN -5.5 WISCONSIN -4.5

Before you make your bets for Week 12, check out SportsGrid’s college football picks and five-star player props!

PENN STATE -20.5 Rutgers

Penn State’s status has dropped after an unimpressive performance against Michigan, especially on offense. But maybe too much in terms of the initial line at just 17.5. Someone out there remembers that the Nittany Lions typically smoke every opponent not named Michigan or Ohio State, while Rutgers is coming off a 22-point shutout loss to Iowa, whose offense makes PSU’s look like peak-level, The Greatest Show on Turf. The line is 20.5 across the board. 

More on Penn State-Rutgers: 3 Penn State TakeawaysWeather Forecast

INDIANA -4.5 Michigan State

It’s two 3-7 teams who are 1-6 in conference play, with the loser finding themselves in the Big Ten East basement alone. Any surprise there’s no interest… I mean, line movement (wait until Friday’s B1G Bets!)? At some offshores, the line is at 4.

More B1G: Big Ten Week 12 Power Rankings 


It was surprising to see Northwestern open as the favorite (-1.5). Regardless of their better record – both overall (5-5, Purdue is 3-7) and in conference play (3-4, Purdue is 2-5)–the perception (accurately) is Northwestern is the Big Ten’s least talented team. The line movement isn’t surprising at all. There are some 2.5s at smaller books if you want to lay with the Boilermakers.

Michigan -19.5 MARYLAND

When I saw this line open at 20.5, I thought it would hit 21 and potentially go through the key-ish number. Instead, it’s gone the other way in favor of the Terps, who snapped their four-game losing streak against Nebraska. Potentially reasons? The biggest is this being the sandwichiest of games. The Wolverines are coming off a huge emotional win at Penn State without their head coach and all the drama surrounding the program. Next is “The Game,” against bitter rival Ohio State, with the winner virtually securing a CFP berth. Can Michigan get up for Maryland? Plus, the drama marches on with their hearing on Friday. The Wolverines are -19.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM but 19 at most other sportsbooks

More on Michigan-Maryland: Can Michigan Dominate Without Harbaugh? | Maryland’s 5 Keys to Victory | Michigan’s Challenges | 3 Michigan Takeaways | Weather Forecast 

IOWA -3.5 Illinois

This line opened at 3.5 on Sunday morning and shifted to 4.5 later that day before settling back at 3.5. Iowa (8-2, No. 16 in the CFP) is a better team than Illinois (5-5, 3-4 in B1G play), but with a total so low (30.5), it’s hard to make the spread very high. Sure, the Hawkeyes buried Rutgers last week, but most of their games are low-scoring (their previous four games have an average total of 20.5), which favors a close contest. The Hawkeyes are -3 at Caesars, and several offshores.

More on Iowa-Illinois: Weather Forecast

OHIO STATE -27.5 Minnesota

Ohio State is coming off its biggest blowout in the B1G game (38-3 vs. Michigan State), while Minnesota is coming off its most embarrassing performance (49 points allowed to Purdue). Throw in the Gophers’ 52-10 loss to Michigan (at home), and you can see why the bookmakers were aggressive with their opening line, north of four touchdowns at 28.5. I’m not happy that I didn’t grab it while I could. Some did as the line went from 28 to 27.5. OSU has won only two games by more than 20 points in Big Ten play this year, and like Michigan, there might be some concern they’re more focused on the following week. Don’t expect the line to shift too much further. The line is 27.5 everywhere but one offshore book

More on Ohio State-Minnesota: Harrison Jr.’s Heisman Odds | Weather Forecast

WISCONSIN -4.5 Nebraska

The Badgers opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and the line has shifted to 4.5. Wisconsin was the favorite to win the B1G West when the season started and even as recently as a couple of weeks ago, but they’ve dropped four of their past five games and have the same record as Nebraska does (5-5, 3-4). The Huskers have won three of five, and their losses have come by a field goal. The way the Badgers are trending, it’s not a surprise to see the line move down, but let’s keep in mind that 5.5 to 4.5 doesn’t involve any key numbers. The Badgers are -5 at some of the smaller books like BetRivers.

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